BRUSSELS – There is a phrase, which resounded constantly yesterday in the hall of the Justus Lipsius Palace which housed the European Council: “We are now at the limit”. Formula pronounced as a watchword by all European leaders. From Mario Draghi to Emmanuel Macron, from Angela Merkel to Charles Michel.
But this time it wasn’t a routine pattern or a refrain. On the case of the journalist Roman Protasevich, kidnapped by the Minsk regime while on an airliner bound for Vilnius, the European summit has taken a step further. Certainly on an emotional level, but also on the consequences that the hijacking of the Ryanair flight would have entailed. And it is not just the very rapid approval of new sanctions. But something more. Never explicit, but implicitly contemplated in speeches: that against Belarus, one more step is needed. A deeper solution.
On the sidelines of the Council, in fact, many of the heads of state and government hinted at a hypothesis capable of putting Lukashenko in difficulty: to ensure that the opposition in Belarus grows. Offer spaces and visibility. Strengthen the home front against the regime. To put him in a position to increase the weight and to gather a majority share of consensus.
It is no coincidence that French President Macron welcomed the idea of inviting Svetlana Tikhanovskaja – the opposition leader – to the G7 to be held in Cornwall on 11 June. It would therefore not be a “regime change” operation. It does not belong to the style of the European community and probably not even to its capabilities. It is enough to read Mario Draghi’s recommendation, opposed to measures against the Belarusian population, to understand the type of line taken. After all, Minsk’s commercial turnover with Europe represents only 20 per cent of the total. The one with Russia exceeds 50 percent. A sign that the agreement with Moscow is not easily scratched. So much so that Putin invited Lukashenko to Sochi. The Kremlin spoke of “regret” for the European sanzoni and the day before yesterday, the foreign minister Lavrov described the EU accusations as “shocking”.
The suspension of aid for three billion, announced by Ursula von der Leyen, up to the “democratization” of the country may instead have some more results. Belarus has about 10 million inhabitants. It is as if they took 18 billion from Italy. A non-fatal but substantial figure. The stop to the airspace, then, will certainly create difficulties but also complications in its implementation.
Of course, everything will freeze until at least mid-June. When will the summit between US President Biden and Russian Putin take place? The appointment is for the 16th in Geneva. There, we will inevitably talk about Belarus. So much so that the Americans have avoided insisting on the relationship between Moscow and Minsk denying that there is evidence of the Kremlin’s involvement in the hijacking of the flight on which Protasevich was traveling. Chancellor Merkel along the same lines. Which traditionally tries to be the “bridge” between East and West.
Attention now focuses on the fate of the Belarusian journalist (not in good condition according to his parents) and his girlfriend, both in prison.
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