It is a queue that never seems to end. Hundreds of armored vehicles, trucks, cannons, rocket launchers transported on trains or stacked on highways. They are steel snakes that migrate from different places in Russia to converge in one direction: the Ukrainian border. For eight days, the war procession has been filmed and relaunched on social media, fueling a growing tension on the hottest borders in Europe. There is everything. Tanks T-90 and T-72, all types of armored vehicles, self-propelled artillery. Paras and marines are seen; selected units of the Guard and the 136th mechanized brigade, protagonist of the fighting in the Donbass in 2014, were reported. with a nose similar to Pinocchio but firing waves of rockets.
Sparks in the Donbass between Moscow and Kiev. Ukraine asks to join NATO
by Rosalba Castelletti
The spokesman for the Kremlin Dmitry Peskov argues that “there is nothing to worry about”. But the command of the American forces in Europe has decreed maximum alert and the Ukrainian presidency is calling for NATO support. While diplomacy and generals witness the growth of the alignment with a perplexity that with the passing of days is becoming astonishment. In fact, the Russian one is a show from the past, reminiscent of the divisions sent to Brenner by Mussolini when he was not yet allied with Hitler or the mass mobilizations of the early twentieth century. In recent years, Moscow had followed a completely different pattern, that of “hybrid warfare” invented by the commander-in-chief Gerasimov which plans to strike in the gray zone using propaganda, disinformation, economic attacks and cyber-sabotage. A canvas executed to perfection in the Crimea in 2014, occupied without firing a shot. Gerasimov himself has perfected his conception, conceiving the “strategy of limited action” which assumes a main role of the elite troops and there are those who hope that this unprecedented exhibition is only an exercise of the new doctrine. But one point is clear: the Russians deploy the military instrument always and only aiming at a political result. If Putin has chosen to flex the muscles of the army, he is doing it to achieve something.
The first target appears to be the White House. “A test for the administration Biden, perhaps to understand exactly what the presidency means when it declared that Ukrainian sovereignty is a priority for the United States, “he told DefenseOne Ben Hodges, former number one of the American forces in Europe. A test in the purest style of the Cold War, trying to take the opponent to the limit. Biden has changed his line towards Moscow, coming to define Putin “a killer”. And now the Russians want to see how it will play its cards to respond to the concentrated shock mass on the eastern edge of the American sphere of influence.
The message is also addressed to the European chancelleries, especially Berlin and Paris, to understand how much they are willing to commit themselves to Kiev. In last week’s telephone conversation with Macron e Merkel, Putin he would have complained about the Ukrainian attitude, which would violate the agreements. An attempt to divide the two sides of the Atlantic, convincing France and Germany to intervene to bring the president back Zelenskij at the negotiating table.
Because the main objective of the Kremlin is to teach a lesson to the leader of Kiev who, after Biden’s inauguration, tried to catch up in internal polls by showing off aggression with Moscow. In addition to maintaining the blockade on water supplies to Crimea, Zelensky has launched a campaign against Ukrainian media owned by pro-Russian oligarchs.
Finally, there is another target: Putin wants to leverage nationalism to revive consensus at home. Officially, the popularity remains very high; however, the weight of Covid and sanctions begins to be felt on the economy, weakened by low oil prices. But if support skyrocketed with the invasion of Crimea, this time the operation appears much more difficult.
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