Xinhua News Agency, Moscow, July 28 (International Observation) Russia and the United States lack mutual trust in arms control
Representatives of Russia and the United States held a bilateral strategic stability dialogue in Geneva, Switzerland on the 28th. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabukov and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Sherman respectively led delegations to attend. In accordance with the relevant instructions of the two presidents, Russia and the United States exchanged views on issues such as strategic stability, arms control prospects, and reduction of conflict risks.
Analysts pointed out that Russia-US relations have been highly tense in recent years. The holding of this dialogue shows that the two sides believe that it is necessary to communicate on a series of major issues related to strategic stability in order to effectively manage risks. However, in view of the serious lack of strategic mutual trust between the two countries and the obvious differences in their positions on arms control issues, the two sides still face many difficulties in achieving substantive results in the follow-up dialogue.
Arms control faces a crisis
This dialogue is to implement the agreement reached by Russian President Putin and US President Biden at their Geneva meeting in June this year. According to a statement issued by the U.S. State Department after the dialogue on the 28th, the two sides had a “professional and substantive” discussion. The US side discussed US policy priorities and the current security environment, awareness of threats to strategic stability, prospects for new nuclear arms control, and the format of future strategic stability dialogues. The two sides will then start informal consultations to determine the topics of the expert working group for the second plenary meeting between the two countries at the end of September.
Russian media quoted Ryabkov as saying on the 28th that the dialogue was conducted in a very pragmatic atmosphere, among which “one of the key issues is to explore how to overcome the current crisis in the arms control field.” This question is very complicated, and the two sides of Russia and the United States did not discuss the answer on this day. There has been a long lack of consultation on issues in the field of arms control. “We are still at the preliminary stage of exchanging views.”
When talking about whether the United States agreed to discuss nuclear weapons, Ryabkov said that Russia is working on this issue. At present, the two sides have just begun to move closer to this core issue and have not yet reached an agreement. The US media quoted a senior US official who participated in the meeting as saying that Russia raised concerns about the US missile defense system at the meeting.
Darryl Kimball, executive director of the U.S. Arms Control Association, said that this dialogue is a limited but important step, and may be the starting point for negotiations between the United States and Russia to constrain their huge nuclear arsenals. Ryabkov pointed out that the new round of Russia-US strategic stability dialogue shows the possibility that the positions of the two countries are closer to each other.
After Biden and Putin met in Geneva, the US-Russian relationship has not made a major breakthrough, and the contradictions between the two sides are still difficult to alleviate. But on the issue of arms control, the Biden administration still hopes to contact Russia.
Mark Fitzpatrick, a former official of the US State Department, pointed out that the Biden administration’s emphasis on arms control issues is reflected in two aspects: First, the US dispatched Sherman and the Deputy Secretary of State Bonnie Jenkins for arms control and international security affairs. Senior officials attended the meeting; secondly, U.S. Republican Senator Cruz had previously blocked Biden’s nomination of Jenkins from being confirmed in the Senate. After that, the White House persuaded the Senate Majority Leader Schumer to intervene and finally promote the nomination to be confirmed. It is to arrange a special person to promote arms control negotiations as soon as possible.
The two sides have different concerns
After the Russian-US “Intermediate-Range-Range Treaty” expired in 2019, the “New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty” became the only major arms control treaty between the two countries. The two countries agreed in February this year to extend the validity of the treaty for five years. Both parties intend to use these five years to reach a new arms control treaty.
Fitzpatrick said that Russia and the United States have many urgent issues on arms control, including re-limiting medium-range ballistic missiles and increasing transparency. The top priority is to control a new round of nuclear arms race triggered by the development of new weapons.
Analysts pointed out that Russia and the United States have different considerations on arms control issues: the United States is worried about Russia’s large-scale tactical nuclear weapons and new weapon systems under development, such as nuclear-powered torpedoes; while Russia is worried about the United States’ missile defense system and conventional weapons. The ability of precision strike weapons.
James Acton, an expert on nuclear issues at the Carnegie Institute for International Peace, a US think tank, said that in addition to the overall goal of avoiding nuclear war, the interests of the United States and Russia on nuclear issues have gradually shown asymmetry, which has increased the arms control of both sides. Difficulty of negotiation.
Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov told the media on the 28th that it is currently difficult for Russia to regard the United States as a partner. Although Putin has repeatedly expressed his willingness to promote the normalization of relations between the two countries, it is a pity that there is currently no partnership between Russia and the United States.
Peskov pointed out that although the Russian and American presidents met in Geneva, they should not have high expectations for the “Geneva spirit”. The meeting between the two heads of state was constructive, allowing both sides to understand the current differences. However, this meeting should not be regarded as a kind of “threshold” and that the two countries will become partners after crossing this “threshold”. This kind of thinking is irrational.