- Frank Gardner
- BBC security correspondent
The war has really started, no excuses are needed, and the diplomatic effort has failed – at least for now. Ukraine faces a full-scale Russian invasion and is fighting for the survival of the country.
How will the situation develop next?
For Russia, the biggest victory was the capture of Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, the seat of current President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government. The battle for the capture of Kiev has now begun.
President Vladimir Putin has spent the past few months studying behind closed doors various plans by the Russian military to occupy and control Ukraine, a fellow Slavic but pro-Western neighbor.
The invasion plan is simply a three-way attack. From the north, east, and south, first use artillery fire and missiles to prepare firepower, and then infantry and mechanized troops follow up. Putin’s plan certainly wants to see Zelensky’s government surrender quickly so that he can install a pro-Russian puppet government in Ukraine.
The goal of the above-mentioned battle plan is to avoid large-scale and long-term urban street fighting, and it does not want to see the formation of a Ukrainian national resistance movement.
“In the short term, Russia’s capture of Kiev will be a military and political strategic success,” said Brig Ben Barry of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He also pointed out that the move will not necessarily destroy the Ukrainian government – as long as the latter can build a new temporary government headquarters in the western part of the country.
So far, the Russian invasion does not appear to have gone fully as planned – Britain’s Ministry of Defence intelligence said the Russian army has lost hundreds of soldiers amid fierce resistance from the Ukrainian army. Nevertheless, the Russian army continued to advance. The invading Russian army had an overwhelming three-to-one advantage over the Ukrainian army. In addition to the number of troops, there are also doubts about the commanding ability of Ukrainian active duty officers at all levels, so it is unclear how long the Ukrainian army can hold on.
Ukrainian War of Resistance
The Anti-Japanese War has begun in various parts of Ukraine. In addition to various armed personnel from all over the country, civilian volunteers have also received 18,000 automatic weapons. They have launched resistance activities against the Russian army everywhere.
Eastern European countries, worried about Putin’s further eastward expansion, are also nervously watching the Russian military’s every move in its eastern neighbors. Estonian Defense Minister Kusti Salm has actively promoted countries to provide military aid to Ukraine.
He believes that NATO needs to give Ukraine more “Javelin” anti-tank missiles, more anti-aircraft missiles, more ammunition and ballistic equipment.
Overall, the longer the war in Ukraine drags on, the worse it will be for Russia, which will begin to face growing domestic and international opposition.
For Putin and his Belarusian dictator allies, who have completely destroyed the effective opposition at home, any anti-war protester at home will face the sticks and prisons of the military and police.
Some security experts also pointed out that in addition to repression, Russia will also use high-tech surveillance equipment to monitor and retaliate against any country or individual who dares to support anti-war activities.
Where is NATO?
NATO deliberately does not enter Ukraine. Despite pleas from Kiev, NATO insisted it would not send troops to aid.
Why? Because Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and NATO is not willing to go to war with Russia.
If the Russian invasion turns into a prolonged occupation, Western allies are likely to openly aid the Ukrainian resistance, as the United States did in the 1980s to support Afghan jihadist groups resisting Soviet aggression. Of course, in that case, Putin would certainly have countermeasures.
At the same time, NATO is urgently strengthening its defenses on the Eastern Front. Ironically, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which was intended to weaken NATO’s power in Eastern Europe, backfired.
Tobias Ellwood, chairman of the UK parliament’s defence affairs committee, said the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a wake-up call for the whole of Europe.
He believes that the 30 years of peace in Europe is no longer, so people must speed up preventive measures against ‘tyrants’.
Will things get worse?
For Ukrainians, this may have been the worst possible outcome.
Eight years of fighting against Russian-backed insurgents on the eastern front have now flooded their country, including the capital, with artillery fire.
Ukrainians, who overwhelmingly voted for independence in 1991 and gave up their nuclear weapons, now face the prospect of being annexed by Russia again.
For world leaders, the biggest question mark right now is: What does Putin want from Ukraine?
After re-reading Putin’s July 2021 speech, NATO defense officials began to urgently strengthen military defense deployments to Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
Will Putin really take action against Eastern Europe?
Ellwood believes Putin definitely has a plan. He even worried that Putin might send plainclothes soldiers to cause trouble first, and that the war could spread to the Baltic states.
NATO has raised its alert and deployed 100 more latest-generation fighter jets to the east. Britain was the first NATO country to send reinforcements to Estonia on the Eastern Front.
Ellwood pointed out that although no one would believe that a small British force can withstand the military of nuclear power Russia, but if something happened, it would be a fuse and lead to the full involvement of NATO members, including the United States, Britain and France.
Of course, until recently, most countries did not believe that Russia would seriously attack NATO. However, NATO countries have understood that now is the time to plan ahead.