In an attempt to defuse one of the moments of greatest tension between Russia and the West of recent decades, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken – at the end of a mini-tour that saw him this week first in Kiev and then in Berlin – meets today in Geneva the Russian Foreign Minister, Serghei Lavrov.
In the last two weeks, the frequent bilateral and multilateral contacts between the two countries on formal guarantees of security in Europe, requested by Moscow from both NATO and the US, have not led to any turning point: Russia, which has amassed 100,000 soldiers on the border Ukrainian by triggering the invasion alarm, does not stop sending threatening signals, holding joint military maneuvers with Belarus and announcing exercises with China and Iran in the Mediterranean, the Atlantic and the North Seas.
Kiev fears Moscow’s future moves. The US: “If it invades, the response will be quick”
by our correspondent Paolo Brera
For their part, Washington and Europe daily renew the warning to the Kremlin of heavy sanctions (including the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline) in the event of “any” invasion and evaluate to strengthen military assistance to the former Soviet republic, refusing – as Moscow asks – to exclude its possible future membership of NATO.
Diplomacy is committed to several directives in the dialogue with Moscow: in addition to the bilateral Russia-US path on strategic stability, those in the Osce and EU areas and then that with NATO are open.
The demands of Russia and the responses of the USA
It is on this last track that we are working with greater progress and “in short time”, according to informed sources, the written responses of the Alliance to the requests for security guarantees made by Moscow should arrive, in exchange for a de-escalation.
“Moscow prepares for aggression”. Blinken in Kiev for military aid
by our correspondent Paolo Mastrolilli
Within the Atlantic Alliance there is a willingness to make a “serious effort” to promote dialogue, but the US and the UK seem to be pressing more on deterrence actions.
Blinken has already warned that in Geneva today he will not bring to Lavrov the written responses to the proposals sent by Russia also to Washington and the American president, Joe Biden, has insisted on the “devastating consequences” for the Kremlin in case of “any” kind of violation of the border.
From Moscow today the president of the Duma – the lower house of the Russian parliament, announced consultations with party leaders on the recognition of the self-proclaimed separatist republics of Lugansk and Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine.
What Moscow wants from NATO and what the West cannot accept
“It is absolutely mandatory for us to ensure that Ukraine never, ever becomes a member of NATO,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. Moscow accuses NATO countries of “pumping” Ukraine with weapons and the United States of fueling tensions. President Putin complained that Russia “has nowhere else to retreat – do they think we’ll just be watching?”.
Tanks and soldiers, Ukraine will be surrounded in three weeks
by Gianluca Di Feo
In the draft agreement presented by the Russians, the de facto withdrawal of NATO from Eastern Europe and the commitment not to accept further adhesions from countries of the former Soviet bloc, primarily Ukraine, are called for. Russia would like NATO to return to its pre-1997 borders. This would mean the withdrawal of combat units from Poland and the Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and no missiles deployed to countries like Poland and Romania. An unacceptable request for Europe and the United States.
The dispute over Ukraine and the possible actions of the US and the EU
Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and claimed a historical right to it. as part of the former Soviet Union and home to a large portion of the Russian-speaking population. Moscow complains about the failure to implement the Minsk agreements.
The US has made it clear that it has no plans to send combat troops to Ukraine, despite being committed to helping Ukraine defend its “sovereign territory”. The West has at its disposal the instrument of sanctions and that of military aid in the form of advisers and weapons.
The heaviest economic blow to Moscow would be to disconnect the Russian banking system from the Swift international payment system. Another option is to prevent the opening of the Russian Nord Stream 2 pipeline in Germany, the approval of which is currently being evaluated by the German energy regulator.
There may also be measures against the Russian GDR sovereign wealth fund or restrictions on banks converting rubles into foreign currency. Washington has said it is committed to “working closely” with its allies, but there are divisions between the US and Europe.