Executive summary:In response to the Lithuanian government’s ban on the transit of Russian goods to Kaliningrad, Russia issued a retaliatory warning on the 21st: “Russia will undoubtedly respond to this hostile act. Relevant response measures are being formulated in a cross-departmental form and will be implemented in the near future. These The measures will have a serious negative impact on the Lithuanian people.” On the same day, Moscow also summoned the EU’s ambassador to Russia, Edrel, to lodge a strong protest against Lithuania’s move to the EU. Some Russian media called for “breaking through military means” on the land corridor leading to Kaliningrad via Lithuania, and some Russian media began to discuss “several possible ways to attack Lithuania.” According to a report by Yahoo News on the 20th, after Lithuania banned Russian freight trains from passing through the border, Russia launched a military exercise in Kaliningrad Oblast. The “Washington Post” commented on the 21st that Kaliningrad, an enclave with “Iskander” ballistic missiles deployed and known as Russia’s “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in the Baltic Sea, may become a conflict between Russia and the West. The latest fuse.
In response to the Lithuanian government’s ban on the transit of Russian goods to Kaliningrad, Russia issued a retaliatory warning on the 21st: “Russia will undoubtedly respond to this hostile act. Relevant response measures are being formulated in a cross-departmental form and will be implemented in the near future. These The measures will have a serious negative impact on the Lithuanian people.” On the same day, Moscow also summoned the EU’s ambassador to Russia, Edrel, to lodge a strong protest against Lithuania’s move to the EU. Some Russian media called for “breaking through military means” on the land corridor leading to Kaliningrad via Lithuania, and some Russian media began to discuss “several possible ways to attack Lithuania.” According to a report by Yahoo News on the 20th, after Lithuania banned Russian freight trains from passing through the border, Russia launched a military exercise in Kaliningrad Oblast. The “Washington Post” commented on the 21st that Kaliningrad, an enclave with “Iskander” ballistic missiles deployed and known as Russia’s “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in the Baltic Sea, may become a conflict between Russia and the West. The latest fuse.
“Open hostilities”
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova said on the 21st that Lithuania should understand that the prohibition of the transit of goods to Kaliningrad Oblast is characterized as a “hostile act”, which means that there is no room for negotiation. “I hope the Lithuanian representatives will retain some professionalism in assessing the situation…they should be aware of the consequences, which, unfortunately, will come…they are provoking…this is an openly hostile act,” she said.
According to a report by ITAR on the 21st, Patrushev, secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council, said that the Russian government will respond to Lithuania’s blockade of goods transiting Kaliningrad Oblast as soon as possible, and Lithuanian residents will truly feel the consequences of these measures.
On the 21st, the Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the EU’s ambassador to Russia, Edrel, to protest strongly to the EU, saying that Lithuania’s behavior violated the law and the EU’s political obligations, and led to an escalation of tensions, which was unacceptable. Edrel told RIA Novosti on the 21st that he had a 20-minute talk with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Glushko. The day before, the Lithuanian Chargé d’affaires in Russia had been summoned.
The Lithuanian side strongly defended. Both Edrel and the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the ban on transshipment of goods to the Russian enclave Kaliningrad Oblast through Lithuania was not a decision by Lithuania, but was made in accordance with EU sanctions against Russia. In addition, a spokesman for the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs insisted that “Kaliningrad is not blocked”, saying that land transportation between Kaliningrad and the rest of Russia has not been blocked, and “all goods not subject to sanctions can flow freely.” Currently affected items include Russian steel “that cannot be transported through the territory of European countries”, the spokesman said, as part of EU sanctions that came into effect in mid-June; Russian concrete and alcohol products from July 10; Sanctions will be imposed on Russian coal from the 10th; from December, Russian oil will not be allowed to enter EU territory.
Borrell, the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, also defended Lithuania’s decision on the 20th, saying that although he “always worried about Russia’s retaliation”, Lithuania was “not guilty” and “Lithuania did nothing else but was implementing the European Commission’s retaliation.” Guidelines”.
“5 possible blows to Lithuania”
The explanations from Lithuania and the EU could not quell the anger of Russia at all. According to a report by RIA Novosti on the 21st, Morozov, a member of the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament), said that Russia should ban the import of all Lithuanian goods and suspend all existing agreements with it. Russia’s “Viewpoint” published a report on the 21st titled “Moscow has several solutions to break the Kaliningrad blockade”, saying that there have been calls for military means to break through the land corridor leading to Kaliningrad through Lithuania. Kaliningrad political scientist Nosovich believes that in response to the Kaliningrad blockade, Russia may abandon the border treaty signed in 2003 with Lithuania, part of which was transferred from Belarus to Lithuania during the Soviet era. Today’s Russian TV said on the 20th that the blockade of Kaliningrad against Russia means a “casus belli”.
The Russian “Komsomolskaya Pravda” published an article on the 20th titled “How will Russia respond to the blockade of Kaliningrad: 5 possible blows to Lithuania”, saying that first, Russia can revoke the recognition of Lithuania’s independence. The second is Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement with the EU on Lithuania. Thanks to this agreement, Lithuania was able to join the European Union and NATO. Third, Russia demanded the return of Klaipeda. The city was occupied by the Soviet Red Army in 1945 and later returned to the Lithuanian Soviet Republic. Fourth, Russia can forcibly use the “Suwauke Corridor”. This border passage between Lithuania and Poland, which is about 100 kilometers long, can connect Belarusian territory with Russia’s Kaliningrad region. “If Russia goes this far, it means a war with NATO.” The fifth is to decouple Lithuania from the Russian energy system. Currently, the Baltic states rely heavily on Russia for electricity.
The fierce battle continues in many places in Udon
Yahoo News reported on the 20th that Russia held military exercises in Kaliningrad Oblast after Lithuania stopped the transit of Russian freight trains. Soldiers of Russia’s Baltic Fleet are conducting training exercises for missile and artillery units in Kaliningrad Oblast. About 1,000 Russian soldiers and more than 100 pieces of military and special equipment from missile and artillery units participated in the exercise.
Although Kaliningrad Oblast is small, it is a strategic location for Russia to check and balance NATO. The Associated Press said that as Russia’s only Baltic ice-free port, it is home to the base of Russia’s Baltic Fleet, with 80 warships. The “Financial Times” said on the 21st that Moscow has also deployed nuclear-capable “Iskander” ballistic missiles in the region, but did not say whether these missiles carry nuclear warheads.
Coincidentally, the Russian Ministry of Defense released a video of the “Iskander” missile fighting in Ukraine on the 21st. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Ukrainian air defense system was unable to intercept the missile. According to a report by the Russian “Liberty Media” website on the 21st, the Russian army continued to attack Ukrainian military equipment and personnel in many places. The “Luhansk People’s Republic” army is launching an attack on Lisichansk, and is engaged in fierce street and artillery battles with the Ukrainian army in the surrounding areas of the city. At the same time, the siege of the Ukrainian army on the “Azot” chemical plant in Severo-Donetsk continues, and some Ukrainian soldiers have surrendered.
According to a report by the TASS news agency on the 21st, the Ukrainian army’s raid on the Crimea oil and gas platform has resulted in 3 injuries and 7 missing. Vodolatsky, first deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma’s CIS Affairs Committee, said the missile fired in the attack “could have been American or British-made.”
Original title: Russia warns of retaliation against Lithuania, conducts military exercises in Kaliningrad