Home » Sagramoso: “Moscow spies on Italy because it is the weak pawn of the Alliance”

Sagramoso: “Moscow spies on Italy because it is the weak pawn of the Alliance”

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LONDON – Domitilla Sagramoso, professor and Italian expert in Russian history at the prestigious King’s College: why did Russia launch this espionage operation in Italy?

“Because Italy is a weak pawn of the Atlantic Alliance. It has had various pro-Russian governments, both center-right and center-left: it does not depend only on Berlusconi’s good personal relations with Putin. Furthermore, due to Italy’s energy dependence on Moscow and the importance of Moscow for Italian exports, Russia is an important market for our country and for this reason there is a lobby, particularly in Northern Italy, which pushes for good relations with the Kremlin. Nonetheless, the Italian civil and military counter-espionage has often proved very determined in rejecting Russian espionage, as this last case also demonstrates ”.

And why is Russia aggressively spying on the West at this stage?

“Because a hybrid war is underway between Russia and the West, rather than a cold one, that is, a war fought not with military instruments, too risky in a direct confrontation with a nuclear power, but with other means, such as economic sanctions. And Moscow reacts, not only with its own counter-sanctions, but also with espionage operations that all have the same basic objective: obtaining materials, discovering secrets about the mechanics of the chains of command and weakening NATO. From this point of view, the arrests in Rome are not surprising ”.

The analysis

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Yet they represent an unprecedented fact in many respects.

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“Because instead of political or industrial espionage, this time it was a mission within the highest military apparatuses. That it was discovered and foiled is very embarrassing for the Kremlin. And it is a mission probably revealing the anxiety that Moscow feels for Ukraine, where the situation is deteriorating. In addition, from Belarus to Georgia, the whole region around Russia is going through a delicate moment ”.

How will Putin react?

“It is a bad blow for the Kremlin, because up to now it has counted on Italy to compose, together with Germany and France, an axis in favor of a softer line towards Russia”.

But what is the West to do?

“The West has made mistakes in its policy towards Russia in the last decade, but Russia has made an unforgivable one with the annexation of Crimea and the invasion of Ukraine: we have paid for the principle according to which the borders of nations must not be changed by force. It was a serious violation of international norms that the West rightly cannot ignore ”.

Dialogue or intransigence, then, to try to democratize Russia?

“The Russian internal changes must be left to the Russians, and there are some as we have seen from the story of Navalnyj, who among other things has now started a hunger strike in prison. But the West must use firmness towards Moscow and oppose any violation of the rule of law in Russia. The hard line has risks, because any Russian opponent can be accused of being a Western agent and because there is a danger of pushing Russia more and more into China’s hands. However, there are red lines that Moscow cannot cross. It is therefore necessary to dialogue with Putin, firmly but also with respect. There are points where there can be joint action, on climate and disarmament for example. And points on which one cannot compromise, to be addressed with the best diplomatic language ”.

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