one,live weather
1. Domestic weather conditions
Heavy rainfall in Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu and other places：From 08:00 yesterday to 06:00 today, there were heavy to heavy rains in parts of northern Shandong, southern Hebei, northern Henan, central and southwestern Shanxi, northern and southwestern Shaanxi, eastern Gansu, and western Sichuan Basin. Heavy rains (100-218 mm) occurred in parts of China, parts of central Shanxi and Yulin in Shaanxi, Longnan and Tianshui in Gansu, Ya’an and Chengdu in Sichuan.
High temperature occurred in Jianghuai, Jiangnan and other places in the Sichuan Basin:The highest temperature in parts of southern Shaanxi, eastern Sichuan, northern and western Chongqing, northeastern Yunnan, southwestern and eastern Hubei, central and southern Anhui, southern Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, northern Fujian, and central and northern Jiangxi was 37-39°C. The local temperature in Yibin and Luzhou in Sichuan, Zhaotong in Yunnan, Jinhua in Zhejiang and Taizhou in Yunnan is 40-41 °C, and the local temperature in Zhaotong in Yunnan is 44 °C.
2. Foreign weather conditions
Heavy rainfall in India, Southeast Asia, South Korea and other places：Moderate to heavy rain, local heavy rain, accompanied There are strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.
High temperature in West Asia, North Africa, the United States and other places：The Arabian Peninsula, Turkmenistan, Iranian Plateau, Ganges Plain, northern Africa, southern United States, northern Mexico and other places experienced high temperature weather above 35°C. Among them, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Chad, northern Mexico and other places have the highest local daily The temperature reaches 40 to 43 ℃.
Second, the key weather forecast
1. Domestic key weather
（1）Shaanxi, Shanxi, Shandong, Sichuan Basin and other places have heavy precipitation
From the 12th to the 13th, there were moderate to heavy rains in central and southwestern Shaanxi, western Sichuan Basin, southern Shanxi, southern Hebei, northern Henan, northeastern Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and southeastern Liaoning, and heavy rains or heavy rains in some areas, accompanied by Short-term heavy precipitation, local thunderstorms, strong winds or hail and other strong convective weather.
The Central Meteorological Observatory issued a blue rainstorm warning at 06:00 on July 12:It is estimated that from 08:00 on July 12 to 08:00 on July 13, some areas in southeastern Gansu, central and southwestern Shaanxi, southern Shanxi, southern Hebei, northern Henan, central and northern Shandong, southeastern Liaoning, and northwestern Sichuan Basin will be affected. Heavy to heavy rain, among which, there are heavy rains (100-150 mm) in parts of northern Shandong and other places (see Figure 1). Some of the above-mentioned areas are accompanied by short-term heavy rainfall (the maximum hourly rainfall is 20-50 mm, and the local area can exceed 70 mm), and there are local strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.
figure 1 National heavy rainfall forecast map (7moon12th 08Time-13th 08Time)
From the 14th to the 15th, there were moderate to heavy rains and local heavy rains in the eastern part of the Northwest Region and the western part of the Sichuan Basin.
From the 16th to the 19th, there were moderate to heavy rains and local heavy rains in the Sichuan Basin, Jianghan, southern Huanghuai, and Jianghuai.
（2）There are still persistent high temperatures in Jiangnan and other places in the Sichuan Basin
From the 12th to the 17th, the southern Xinjiang Basin, the central and eastern Sichuan Basin, the southern Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, Jiangnan, South China and other places have sustained high-temperature sunny and hot weather. The daily maximum temperature in most areas is generally 35-38 ℃. can reach above 40℃.
The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a high temperature orange warning at 06:00 on July 12:It is expected that during the day on July 12, there will be high temperatures above 35°C in the southern Xinjiang Basin, southern Shaanxi, southern Huanghuai, eastern Southwest China, Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan, and South China. Among them, Anhui, central and southern Jiangsu, Shanghai, Hubei The highest temperature in parts of the west and southeast, northern and eastern Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, most of Fujian, southeastern Sichuan Basin, Chongqing, northeastern Guizhou and other places is 37-39 °C, and the highest temperature in southern Jiangsu, northern Shanghai, southern Zhejiang, Sichuan The southeastern part of the basin, the central and western parts of Chongqing and the northern part can reach above 40°C (see Figure 2).
picture2 National high temperature drop area forecast map (7moon12th08Time-20Time)
2. Foreign key weather
（1）High temperatures in North Africa, West Asia, Spain, the United States and other places
In the next three days, there will be high temperature weather in West Asia, southern Central Asia, Pakistan, northern Africa, southern and western United States, northern Mexico, Spain, Portugal and other places, and the local daily maximum temperature can exceed 43°C.
（2）Heavy rainfall on the Indian Peninsula, Korean Peninsula and other places
In the next three days, there will be heavy rain to heavy rain in parts of the central and northern Indian Peninsula, southern Myanmar, western Cambodia, North Korea, South Korea and other places, accompanied by strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.
3. Specific forecast for the next three days
From 08:00 on July 12th to 08:00 on the 13th,There are heavy to heavy rains in parts of southeastern Gansu, central and southwestern Shaanxi, southern Shanxi, southern Hebei, northern Henan, central and northern Shandong, southeastern Liaoning, and northwestern Sichuan Basin. Among them, there are heavy rains in parts of northern Shandong and other places. (100 ~ 150 mm) (see Figure 3).
Figure 3 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on July 12th – 08:00 on July 13th)
From 08:00 on July 13th to 08:00 on the 14th,In parts of eastern Inner Mongolia, southwestern Heilongjiang, Jilin, northeastern Liaoning, southeastern Gansu, central and southwestern Shaanxi, southern Shanxi, northern Henan, southern Hebei, central and southern Shandong, northwestern Sichuan Basin, Hainan Island, etc. Heavy rain. Among them, there are heavy rains or heavy rains (100-110 mm) in parts of northeastern Inner Mongolia, southwestern Heilongjiang, western Jilin, and southern Shandong. There are winds of magnitude 4 to 6 in parts of the Southern Xinjiang Basin of Xinjiang and Hexi of Gansu (see Figure 4).
Figure 4 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on July 13th – 08:00 on July 14th)
From 08:00 on July 14th to 08:00 on the 15th,There are moderate to heavy rains in parts of western Inner Mongolia, eastern Northwest China, eastern Henan, southern Shandong, northern Anhui, central and northern Jiangsu, eastern Heilongjiang, and northeastern Jilin. Among them, eastern Gansu, central Ningxia, northern Shaanxi, northern Anhui, and Jiangsu There are heavy rains (50-80 mm) in parts of the central and other places. There are winds of magnitude 6 to 7 in parts of eastern Xinjiang (see Figure 5).
Figure 5 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on July 14th – 08:00 on July 15th)
4. Influence and Concern
1. Pay attention to secondary disasters that may be caused by strong rainfall and local strong convective weather in Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, Henan and other places, and prevent adverse effects on transportation and agricultural production;
2. The adverse effects of continuous high temperature weather in Jiangnan, Jianghan, South China and Sichuan Basin on power supply, water resources allocation, human health, agricultural production, etc.;
3. Precipitation trends in arid regions such as Gansu, Shaanxi and Shanxi and their mitigation effects on drought.