[Epoch Times, April 21, 2022]Starting from April 18, the relatively dull Ukrainian battlefield changed suddenly. The Russian army launched a full-scale attack in eastern Ukraine, and once again carried out long-range strikes and bombings on Kyiv and other places. The Ukrainian military should be under enormous pressure. However, after the Russian Navy’s cruiser Moskva sank, the Russian army immediately launched a full-scale attack. If it is not a coincidence, I am afraid that it has committed another military taboo.
The Russian army is eager to win again
On April 4, the Russian army officially abandoned Kyiv and quickly evacuated from around Kiev. In the next two weeks, the Russian army regrouped in eastern Ukraine and conducted a tentative small-scale offensive, but encountered resistance from the Ukrainian army. The Russian army was not in a hurry to attack across the board and should have been preparing for a large-scale attack.
The Russian army is also trying to figure out the deployment of the Ukrainian army in order to carry out targeted attacks. Recently, the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine has experienced more rainy weather, and the muddy ground is actually not suitable for the rapid advance of the armored forces.
However, on April 18, the Russian army claimed airstrikes and shelling of hundreds of Ukrainian military targets, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Niepropetrovsk region (Dnipropetrovsk) and Nikolayev port (Mykolayiv), etc., throughout central, southern and eastern Ukraine, and even the western Ukraine city of Lviv (Lviv) was also hit by missiles.
On April 19, both Russia and Ukraine indicated that the war had entered a new stage, with Ukraine confirming that the Russian army was launching an offensive along a broad front of more than 300 miles.
The rehearsal for the military parade on Red Square in Moscow, originally scheduled for May 9, has begun, and the Russian front-line commander in Ukraine should be under pressure. However, if the Russian army is not really ready, or ignores the unfavorable conditions of the weather, and is eager to win again, it is tantamount to committing a serious military taboo.
Russian firepower continues to be dispersed
On April 14, the flagship cruiser Moskva of the Russian Black Sea Fleet sank. The Russian army claimed that the mishandling caused the explosion of the ammunition depot, but refused to admit that it was hit by a missile. However, on April 18, the Russian army suddenly carried out a full range of missile attacks, air strikes and artillery bombardments all over Ukraine, which was actually a large-scale retaliatory move, which was equivalent to confirming that the Moskva was sunk.
The 12,500-ton cruiser of the Russian army was named Moscow, which obviously has a pivotal position and symbolic significance. It was sunk overnight. It seems not difficult for the Russian army to retaliate. , is dominated by emotions, which is a taboo for Moscow high-level and front-line commanders.
The Russian army had planned to concentrate its forces on capturing the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine and gave up the capture of major cities such as Kiev, but this time it bombed Kyiv and other regions again. Obviously, the motive for retaliation was even greater. In this large-scale attack, the Russian army once again committed a military taboo of attacking from all directions.
At the end of February, the Russian army was divided into at least four routes to attack Kyiv, Kharkov, and the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. The limited forces were dispersed to various battlefields, committing the taboo of underestimating the enemy and dividing troops. The Russian army was eager to win, and after failing to achieve its goal, it had to withdraw from around Kyiv and re-concentrate its forces to eastern Ukraine.
The Russian army should have concentrated its firepower on the eastern battlefield, but this time, it bombed many targets in Ukraine again, which actually did not help the eastern battlefield, and continued to consume limited ammunition stocks. Such an action also shows once again that the Russian army is likely to still be unable to find the main force in Ukraine, unable to carry out targeted long-range strikes, and can only continue to bombard indiscriminately and aimlessly.
The Russian army still does not know the enemy
The U.S. Department of Defense confirmed that the Russian military has assembled 76 battalion-level tactical units in eastern Ukraine, an increase of 11 from the original. About 22 battalion-level tactical units evacuated from around Kyiv have not yet come for reinforcements.
Perhaps these 22 units were severely damaged and could not recover their combat power quickly in the short term. Perhaps they were reserved as reserves. In short, the Russian army no longer waited for all the troops to be in place and started a large-scale attack. But so far, the Russian army has failed to make a major breakthrough, either encountered stubborn resistance from the Ukrainian army, or the Russian army did not dare to rush forward.
This shows that the Russian army is probably not ready and still does not grasp the movements of the Ukrainian army. Compared with the battalion-level tactical units of the Russian army, the Ukrainian army should continue to focus on company-level or platoon-level tactical units, and implement high-mobility blocking and harassment, so that the long-range firepower and air strikes of the Russian army cannot find accurate targets and cannot. Play a role.
The Russian army still did not know the situation of the enemy, but rashly attacked, which was a big taboo; on the contrary, the deployment of the Russian army was basically exposed to the reconnaissance system of the US military, and was promptly passed on to the Ukrainian front-line troops. The Russian army seems to have the upper hand, but it seems that there is no way to win.
The firepower of the Ukrainian army has been reinforced
On April 7, the U.S. Department of Defense’s list of weapons to assist Ukraine, in addition to a large number of individual Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, anti-armor Javelin missiles, Switchblade drones and small arms, also There are laser-guided rocket systems, Puma drones, anti-artillery and anti-drone systems tracking radar, night vision equipment, thermal imaging systems and optics, as well as communications systems, commercial satellite imagery services, and more.
This shows that the U.S. military has been providing intelligence to the Ukrainian army, and Ukrainian teams can also use Puma drones to do battlefield reconnaissance on their own. The Russian army should also send drones to search, but it cannot avoid the anti-drone radar of the US military. The Ukrainian military has repeatedly released pictures of downed Russian drones, and it is difficult for the Russian army to effectively complete the battlefield reconnaissance mission.
On April 13, the new U.S. assistance also added 18 155mm howitzers, 10 AN/TPQ-36 anti-gun radars, and two AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel air surveillance radars.
This means that the Ukrainian army has acquired a local long-range strike capability. The U.S. military equipment has brought new life to artillery. UAV-guided artillery can carry out precise attacks, which can accurately attack low-value targets at a lower cost, including combat vehicles, infantry positions, etc.; anti-artillery radar can also help attack enemy artillery positions.
On April 19, a meeting of leaders of 11 Western countries confirmed that the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada will provide more artillery, which means that Ukraine will have more long-range firepower. This is not good news for the Russian army. The Russian army may not have an advanced anti-artillery system, and after the Ukrainian army has completed several rounds of shelling, it is likely that the artillery towed by a high-mobility armored vehicle will be quickly transferred, making it difficult for the Russian army to find it.
In addition, the UK has pledged to provide Alvis Stormer high-speed anti-aircraft missiles for armored vehicles, and Norway has said it has provided 100 Mistral anti-aircraft missiles. Air strikes by Russian fighter jets will face greater risks. The U.S. Department of Defense also confirmed that aircraft parts were provided, allowing Ukraine to repair the planes, and the stockpile of fighter jets was larger than before.
The Ukrainian military, supported by the United States and its allies, has some effective means to deal with the Russian military, and is trying to make up the gap; the Russian military still seems to be blind in its actions, unable to exert its advantages, and continues to commit military taboos. The United States said the war could last until the end of the year, presumably foreshadowing a possible war situation before May 9.
The Epoch Times premieres
Responsible editor: Gao Yi