According to the poll results of the presidential candidates released by South Korea’s Gallup on the 4th, Yin Xiyue’s approval rate was 39%, Lee Jae-ming’s approval rate was 38%, and the gap between the two parties was within the margin of error of 5%. In particular, this poll was conducted before Ahn Zhexiu dropped out of the election and turned to support Yin Xiyue, so it is difficult to see whether there is a bailout effect.
In addition, a nationwide survey conducted by a polling agency commissioned by the three major South Korean TV stations from the 1st to the 2nd showed that among the reasons for choosing which candidate to support, the candidate’s commitment to the economy and future development was most regarded as the decisive factor ( 28.4%), followed by the creation of a just society without privilege (24.8%). It is worth noting that the foreign national security policy (14.3%) is almost only half of the economic policy, which shows that improving the economy is the most concerned issue for the public in this election.
In this regard, a reporter from Voice of Hope interviewed Hong Yaonan, a professor at the Mainland China Institute of Tamkang University in Taiwan, and asked him to share his observations and comments on the South Korean presidential election.
First of all, for the “absentee voting” held in advance in South Korea recently, it is open to voters who are unable to go to any polling station on the day of the official voting (9th) to vote in advance. According to official statistics, the voter turnout was as high as 36.93%, a record high. In this regard, Hong Yaonan said that the high or low voting rate in advance does not mean that the total voting rate will reach a new high, especially in the context of the CCP virus epidemic, which may be the result of split voting.
Speaking of the withdrawal of the opposition “Kuomintang Party” candidate An Zhexiu, is it guaranteed to give Yin Xiyue extra points to achieve the effect of “1+1=2”? Hong Yaonan jokingly said that politics is not mathematics, so 1+1 does not equal 2. He mentioned that when Ahn Zhexiu promoted a “single candidate” with the Democratic Party’s Moon Jae-in in 2012 as a non-party member, he also withdrew halfway to integrate, but Moon Jae-in also lost. Now that An Zhexiu has switched from the progressive camp to the conservative camp, the results are still very predictable.
On the eve of the announcement of the general election in South Korea, the international media and all walks of life in South Korea have heard that there is likely to be a party rotation, and they all believe that the anti-China (communist) faction has the best chance to take over. Hong Yaonan believes that if there is a political party rotation in the general election in South Korea, the main reason is that the Korean economy is depressed, and the anti-China (CCP) already exists. As for whether anti-China (CCP) sentiment has been provoked, we can observe from the voting results on the 9th.