Answering questions at the US Senate Intelligence Committee’s annual hearing on top threats to the nation this week, Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) director Lt. Scott Berriersounded the alarm about the possible return of terrorist groups and in particular of al-Qaeda e Isis. In his statement a month after the Taliban took Kabul, he remarked that a resurgent al Qaeda with aspirations of attacking the United States could become a reality within three years.
The lieutenant general said, “And I would say, based on what we know right now from the al Qaeda threat, they are trying to survive, basically without a real plan to attack the West at least anytime soon. And I would argue that ISIS-K poses a little bit bigger threat, but they are under attack by the Taliban regime Right now. And it’s a matter of time before they have the ability and the intention to actually attack the West at this point.”
The growing number of attacks that IS is conducting in Afghanistan e Pakistan it may be an indication that they are not suffering from Taliban attacks, but it may actually suggest a real desire to diminish their authority. These ongoing developments are related to the primary goals of ISA Kabul, which target Taliban personnel and sites, including religious and educational institutions. They also suggest that the group intends to reduce the Taliban’s authority by any means, even going so far as to target i Foreign citizens in civic sites, hotels and companies.
It was expected that the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan, leaving the Taliban in power, would be seen by many groups as a model to imitate, sending the message that if you are strong on the ground you will be recognized as the sole authority. There were numerous impacts on the global terrorist scene when the Taliban took over Afghanistan paved the way to terrorist groups to coordinate and attack elsewhere. The growing and more frequent attacks of Daesh in Syria and Iraq and involvement in drug trafficking suggest that they intend to re-emerge and exploit the regional situation and internal instability.
This could see them move from small-scale operations to larger tactics, including sleeper cells, lone wolves to operations more sophisticated so that the group can send a message of their arrival to the world. There is a clear need for one greater cooperation on security and advanced regional and global collaboration to address this risk.
The assessment of the US Dia should motivate countries to activate one international coalition to anticipate these growing risks and include criminal networks in the mandate of this counter-terrorism coalition. It is crucial to focus on what is currently happening in Afghanistan as it could offer insights into anticipating threats from Isis in Africa, al Qaeda in Yemen and the Daesh in Syria e Iraq.