Thailand’s reform opposition has fought in stunning fashion against nearly a decade of military and military-backed rule, winning the most seats and the largest share of the popular vote in the country’s elections.
With nearly all votes counted, the leading Progressive Party (MFP) and the populist Pheu Thai party are expected to win 286 seats from a pool of 500 on Monday, May 15, according to preliminary results from the Election Commission.
But uncertainty remains over whether they will be able to form the next government because of twisted rules that allow the 250 members of the military-appointed Senate to vote for the prime minister.
This means Kadima and Pheu Thai will need to negotiate deals with many other parties in order to be able to form the next government.
The biggest winner of the night was the Kadima Party, a youth-led party that entered general elections for the first time on a bold platform to weaken the entrenched power of Thailand’s royalist-military elite.
With 99 per cent preliminary results published on the Electoral Commission website, Kadima looked set to take the lion’s share of the lower house with 147 seats. That includes 112 of the 400 seats that are directly elected and 35 of the 100 that are allocated proportionally to parties.
Analysts called the result “remarkable”, with pre-election surveys predicting that Kadima would come in second behind Pheu Thai, which has ties to the billionaire Shinawatra family and has been in power since 2001. has won the most seats in every election since 2009.
Pheu Thai won a total of 138 seats, of which 112 were directly elected seats and 27 came from party lists.
“It’s a very impressive victory for the Kadima Party,” said Titipon Padiwani, a political science professor at Ubon Ratchathani University in eastern Thailand.
He told Al Jazeera, “This marks a major turning point for Thailand because it shows that most people in the country want change. We really saw the strength of the voters, and this time they fought hard for change.”
In third place in the unofficial results was the Pride Party, which led the campaign to legalize cannabis in Thailand. The party is expected to win about 70 seats as part of the current ruling coalition.
Meanwhile, royalist parties with links to the military have underperformed.
Incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who first seized power in a coup in 2014, came in fifth with 36 seats, with the newly formed United National Party of Thailand. Prayut’s former party, the People’s National Power Party, led by his deputy Prawit Wongsuwan, came fourth with about 40 seats.
“We can work together”
The Kadima party has seen a late-stage poll surge and is banking on young people, including 3.3 million first-time voters, overwhelmingly backing its liberal agenda, including plans to weaken the political role of the military and revise strict royal insult laws, critics said. It said the law was being used to suppress dissent.
Members and supporters of the Kadima Party campaign headquarters were emotional as the results were announced.
Phisit Krairot, a 33-year-old engineer and supporter in Bangkok, said, “Before the election, I hoped we would get about 100 seats. But the real-time updates I saw today have exceeded my expectations.”
Party leader Pita Limja Lonla cheered, before saying the party planned to hold a march around Bangkok’s landmark Democracy Monument. He is expected to address the media at 12 noon (05:00 GMT) on Monday 15th.
“It is now clear that Kadima has earned a tremendous amount of confidence from the people and country,” he tweeted early Monday morning.
Pheu Thai leader Bedondan Shinawatra congratulated Kadima on their election success and said the party with the most votes will lead the next government.
“We are ready to talk to Kadima, but we are waiting for the official result,” she told reporters in Bangkok.
She added, “I’m happy for them. We can work together.”
The election was the country’s first since massive youth protests in 2020 that broke long-standing taboos and called for curbing the power of King Maha Vajiralongkorn and ending the military’s involvement in politics. Since 1932, the armed forces have staged 13 successful coups and nine failed.
The Kadima Party has promised sweeping reforms to the monarchy and the military, including changes to Thailand’s strict Majesty Law.
Since the 2014 coup, the Majesty Law has been increasingly enforced. The vaguely worded Article 112 carries a penalty of 15 years in prison and rights groups say it is being used to punish political activism.
The Thai party is allied with Thaksin Shinawatra, Betondan’s father, the self-exiled billionaire who was ousted in a 2006 coup that rocked Thai politics and remains hugely popular among Thailand’s working class. Despite Thaksin’s downfall, parties linked to the telecom tycoon have won every election since, including two landslide victories.
The party refused to commit to changing the Offensive Monarch Act, saying they would instead bring it to parliament.
Analysts expect weeks of haggling to be expected before a coalition is formed and a prime minister is elected.
Parties must have at least 25 seats to nominate a candidate, who needs 376 votes in both houses to become prime minister.
The Senate is appointed by the junta and is expected to vote for a military-aligned party or bloc.
This could turn smaller parties such as Pride, led by current Health Minister Anutin Sanveiragong, into kingmakers.
In the last election in 2019, Pheu Thai won the most seats, but Prayuth became prime minister, leading a coalition of 19 parties. His People’s National Power Party, now led by his deputy, Phawi Onsuwan, also a former general, has the second-most seats.
The electoral commission is not expected to formally confirm the number of seats each party ultimately wins in the election for weeks.
