The political process in Iraq is hardly optimistic
In the past few days, there have been rocket attacks in the “Green Zone” in the heart of Baghdad, the capital of Iraq, demonstrations against the results of the National Assembly election, and drone attacks against Prime Minister Kadimi. Egypt’s “Pyramid” reported that Iraq’s current conflicts, turbulence, and deteriorating public security, the game of regional powers is full of color, and the future prospects are hardly optimistic.
Fragile security situation
The Iraqi military stated on November 7 that the residence of Iraqi Prime Minister Kadimi in the “Green Zone” of Baghdad was attacked by drones that day. Kadimi escaped the attack, but several security personnel were injured. No organization or individual has claimed responsibility for this incident.
According to Qatar’s “Oriental News”, the “Green Zone” is the location of the Iraqi government agencies and the US and British embassies in Iraq. It is a relatively safe zone in Baghdad. The attack on the “Green Zone” shows that the security situation in Iraq is extremely fragile.
Agence France-Presse reported that the attack on the prime minister occurred during a tense confrontation between the Iraqi security forces and the pro-Iranian Shia militia. On October 10, Iraq held a new National Assembly election. The preliminary vote count showed that the “Sadr Movement” led by Shiite religious leader Sadr won 73 seats, ranking first. The “Fatah Alliance”, which is closely related to the Shia militia, has significantly reduced its seats and therefore refused to accept the election results. Its supporters held protest demonstrations near the “Green Zone”.
Complex political ecology
According to the Associated Press, Iraqi Prime Minister Kadimi took office in May last year and previously served as Iraqi Intelligence Director. The militia believes that he has close ties with the United States and is trying to strike a balance between Iraq, the United States and Iran. Before the parliamentary election, he also presided over several rounds of talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia to ease regional tensions.
In an interview with our reporter, Wu Bingbing, director of the Center for Middle East Studies of Peking University, pointed out that three causes have caused the chaos in Iraq today. First, Iraq’s long-standing economic, social, and security structural problems have triggered strong dissatisfaction with the current situation among the people, especially young people, and in turn gave birth to street movements and continued to exert influence on the political situation. Second, the results of the National Assembly elections do not exactly match the current political situation in Iraq, triggering opposition. Political forces such as Shia militias, which have close ties to Iran, have been greatly suppressed in this election, so they will inevitably use their political resources, armed forces, and economic strength to maintain their political interests. Third, the United States and some of the Arab countries it supports have long-term games and confrontations with Iranian forces in the Iraqi political arena. As the United States withdraws its troops from Afghanistan, it is expected that the US military presence in Iraq will also decrease. The power of the United States and the power of Iran will grow and fall, and the geopolitical game will be transmitted to Iraq, triggering turmoil.
Difficult to change in the short term
The US “Foreign Affairs” magazine stated that the parliamentary election held in Iraq on October 10 was the fifth parliamentary election since the United States invaded Iraq in 2003. The voter turnout reached a recent historical low in Iraq. The official record was only 36%, and the actual participation rate may be even lower.
“The United States used the method of launching war to forcibly change the political security structure of the Middle East countries, and the result was only long-term turbulence.” Wu Bingbing said, “After the United States launched the Iraq War in 2003 and overthrew the regime of former Iraqi President Saddam, it was unable to do so. Iraq’s shaping of a stable and sustainable political security structure has made it impossible to talk about Iraq’s economic development and the interests of the people. This is exactly the same as the situation created by the United States in Afghanistan, Libya and other countries.”
The Deutsche Welle radio website stated that under the influence of the United States, Iraq formulated new rules for the distribution of political power after 2003: Shia as prime minister, Sunni as speaker, and Kurds as president. The system was originally designed to prevent conflicts between different factions, but it also slowed down the democratic political process in Iraq.
“In the absence of a sustainable and stable political security structure, the dissatisfaction accumulated by the Iraqi people for a long time lacks an institutionalized channel of expression. They can only be expressed through street politics, which brings more instability to the situation and exacerbates the lag in development. This has caused more dissatisfaction among the people. This bad cycle is difficult to alleviate in the short term.” Wu Bingbing said.
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