Home » The German election has not yet settled, Sino-German relations have become the focus of discussion | Germany | Liberal Democratic Party | Coalition Party_Sina News

The German election has not yet settled, Sino-German relations have become the focus of discussion | Germany | Liberal Democratic Party | Coalition Party_Sina News

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Original title: The German election has not yet settled, Sino-German relations have become the focus of discussion

It has been a few days since the voting for the German Bundestag ended, and the “Merkel era” has officially ended, but who will succeed Merkel and how the new cabinet will be formed has yet to be settled. This situation is very rare in German politics, which is known for its “predictability.” The US “New York Times” reported that the eyes of the world are staring at Berlin.

  The initiative to form a cabinet falls in the hands of the “small party”

According to the preliminary vote count announced by the German Federal Election Commission, the Social Democratic Party (Social Democratic Party) led with a 25.7% vote rate and narrowly defeated Merkel’s coalition party. In view of the fact that the two major parties have less than half of the votes, it is necessary to unite with other parties to form a coalition government. The Social Democratic Party has previously stated that it is not willing to join the coalition party in power. Therefore, based on the announced willingness of the various parties to form a cabinet, various analysis believes that the “traffic light” alliance will be formed by the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party (Liberal Democratic Party), or by the alliance The party, the Green Party, and the Liberal Democratic Party form the “Jamaica” coalition, which is currently the two most likely options. If either of these two situations becomes a reality, it will be the first three-party coalition in Germany since the 1960s.

At present, the Prime Minister candidate of the Social Democratic Party Scholtz and the Prime Minister candidate of the Coalition Party Raschet have shown a strong willingness to form a cabinet, but the initiative to form a cabinet is widely believed to be in the hands of the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party. The Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party are next. In the process of forming a coalition government, it is in a favorable position as a “king maker”.

The Social Democratic Party and the Coalition Party are gradually engaged in a fierce battle for allies. Schultz, the current German Deputy Chancellor and Minister of Finance, said on September 17 that he was optimistic about the negotiations between the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party, because the three parties have a “common development concept.” However, this may not be the case. The Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party have always opposed political ideas on environmental and financial issues. The Green Party, which is determined to advance the “green social revolution,” believes that the state needs a large amount of capital to promote the energy transition; the Liberal Democratic Party opposes the state’s intervention in the economy and advocates tax cuts. The Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party will take the lead in bilateral talks to find areas where they can compromise with each other, and then negotiate with the Social Democratic Party or the Coalition Party to form a cabinet. Liberal Democratic Party Chairman Lindner said frankly that the differences between the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party are the most obvious, “it is very important that we reach an agreement first.”

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When the situation of the cabinet formation negotiations was still unclear, the results of the first poll after the general election ended on September 28. According to a survey by Infratest Dimap, Germany’s largest polling agency, 55% of the people support the “traffic light” coalition to form the new German government cabinet, while only 33% support the “Jamaica” coalition. The survey results also show that if the prime minister can be directly elected, Schultz’s approval rate is 62%, and Merkel’s support rate is only 16%. Ramello, a member of the Left Party and the governor of Thuringia, said that the results of the polls and polls showed that voters hope that the Social Democratic Party will lead the formation of the cabinet. If the final formation of the cabinet is not completed by the Social Democratic Party, it will “contrary to the wishes of the voters.”

  Germany’s domestic and foreign affairs will face certain changes

On the day after the voting for the German Bundestag, the German Research Center of Tongji University, the German Research Branch of the European Society of China, and the Social Sciences Literature Press jointly released the “German Blue Book: German Development Report (2021)” on September 27. Hereinafter referred to as the “Blue Book”). The “Blue Book” believes that under the leadership of the new government, Germany’s internal affairs and diplomacy will change.

In terms of internal affairs, before the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Germany’s national economy has shown various and long-term changes, such as technological progress, demographic changes, and the transition to a climate-neutral economy. Looking to the future, German economic policy must not only respond to the crisis triggered by the epidemic, but also improve the economic resilience of Germany and the European Union on this basis, and increase the potential for economic growth. The “Blue Book” summarizes the orientation of future German economic policies into three points: short-term orientation to overcome the crisis brought by the new crown pneumonia epidemic and revitalize the German economy; medium-term orientation to promote economic structural transformation and achieve sustainable environmentally sustainable growth; long-term orientation Guide, improve internal systems, maintain the order of the social market economy, based in Europe, and build free and fair international trade relations.

In terms of diplomacy, as Germany’s foreign policy has become increasingly Europeanized in recent years, the “Blue Book” predicts that Germany’s global role after the election will also be achieved mainly through the shaping of the European Union. The possible “European leadership vacuum” caused by the German election has also aroused concerns from the European Union. For example, the French government hopes that the negotiations on the formation of a cabinet in Berlin will not be delayed for too long.

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In the opinion of Roderick Parks, a scholar of the German Foreign Policy Association, the current complex international situation has put forward new requirements for the leadership of the European Union. Integrate with long-term planning to give play to a new type of leadership. However, Germany still “does not get out of its comfort zone” as it did when responding to the European debt crisis.

Analysis believes that this has a lot to do with the many differences within Europe and the difficulty of policy coordination. In 2020, Germany has neither advanced to the majority voting mechanism in EU foreign affairs, nor has it been able to promote the formation of a “European Army” and strengthen the integration of European defense. Almost all important decisions made by Germany during the EU’s rotating presidency in the second half of 2020, including the European Recovery Plan, the Anglo-Europe Agreement and the China-EU Investment Agreement, were reached at the last minute. From a subjective perspective, historical experience and lessons have led Germany to still be cautious about its grand geopolitical strategy and its own ambitions. From an objective perspective, factors such as the voting mechanism and the balance of power within Europe have also played a detrimental role in Germany’s leadership. . In other words, there are still many limitations if Germany wants to exert the leadership that some people expect in the EU.

  The new German government’s China policy is “cautiously optimistic”

Merkel’s departure is imminent, and it is inevitable that the new German government’s China policy has caused much discussion.

Diplomatic pragmatism is one of Merkel’s important political legacy. In the EU’s triple positioning of China’s “partner”, “economic competitor” and “system opponent”, Merkel has always pursued a cooperation-oriented policy toward China and opposed the “decoupling” of the United States and China. However, at the end of Merkel’s term, some voices in Germany advocating adjustments to China policy began to surface. In the “Indo-Pacific Guidelines” issued by the German government in September 2020, the core idea is to reduce the so-called unilateral dependence of Germany and the EU on China in the industrial chain and supply chain. Analysts therefore believe that the adjustment of the German government’s China policy in the “post-Merkel era” has already appeared.

People have noticed that although almost all major German political parties specifically mentioned “China” in their election platforms, foreign policy is not the main topic in this year’s German general election. The analysis generally believes that, from the perspective of the current situation, whether it is Schultz or Raschert that will eventually take over as German Chancellor, Germany’s China policy should be able to maintain continuity and stability in the short term. “Cautiously optimistic and seeking change while maintaining stability” is the mainstream view. .

The Social Democratic Party mentioned in its election platform that the “conflicts of interests and values” between Germany and China are increasing, but Schultz has also clearly opposed any “decoupling” illusions. In an interview with the media, member of the Presidium of the Social Democratic Party and Minister of Labor and Social Affairs Alexander Schweitzer of the State of Lai Fah, said that the Social Democratic Party is committed to maintaining dialogue with China. What is even more impressive is that, as Merkel’s party successor, Raschelt made it clear in the last televised debate before the election on September 19 that Germany must continue to be a “reliable partner of China.”

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“Nihon Keizai Shimbun” analysis believes that the biggest variable in Sino-German relations may come from the Green Party prime minister candidate Belle Burke. Although Belle Burke’s “premiership dream” has been shattered, the Green Party is very likely to be assigned important positions in the new government, such as Belle Burke as foreign minister. In the previous election debates, Belle Burke advocated taking a “strong stance” against China, claiming that Germany should “state its position” on the so-called “China’s human rights violations” issue, and used this as an excuse to oppose the EU and China signing a China-EU investment agreement, calling for The EU implements a “common policy toward China.”

In any case, “close economic and trade ties are the ballast stone of Sino-German relations.” The Munich Courier quoted expert opinions and pointed out that the new German government should pursue a pragmatic China policy. During Merkel’s 16 years as prime minister, Sino-German economic and trade has developed rapidly. In 2020, China will become Germany’s most important trading partner for the fifth consecutive year, with bilateral trade volume approaching 213 billion euros. After the vote in the German general election, Kasa, chairman of the supervisory board of Siemens Energy Group, said that the German economic community is willing to expand future relations with China.

China has always attached importance to the development of relations with Germany and believes that the stable and healthy development of China-Germany relations is in the common interests of both countries. Chinese Ambassador to Germany Wu Ken stated on September 27 that no matter what kind of ruling combination the new German government adopts, we hope that all parties in Germany can continue to undertake a pragmatic and cooperative China policy. On the same day, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying also said at a regular press conference that he is willing to work with the new German government to maintain China-Germany relations, maintain China-Germany dialogue and cooperation, and continue to promote the pragmatism of the two countries with a spirit of mutual benefit and openness. Cooperation, based on the principle of mutual respect and seeking common ground while reserving differences, promotes the stability and long-term development of bilateral relations.

Our newspaper, Beijing, September 29th, by wire

China Youth Daily·China Youth Daily reporter Ma Ziqian Source: China Youth Daily

September 30, 2021 09 Edition

Editor in charge: Zhu Xuesen SN240

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