The three-day New Year’s Day holiday is over, and the domestic aviation market, which once fell to the bottom in 2022, has also ushered in the first small long holiday after the “New Ten Rules”. Due to the increase in the number of people traveling across provinces, many urban markets have recovered rapidly , which is basically close to the level before the epidemic.
According to the latest statistics from Flight Steward, during the New Year’s Day holiday (12.31-1.02) in 2023, flights between Chengdu and Sanya are far ahead in recovery, and the flight volume has recovered to more than 90% of the same period in 2019. Among them, the recovery rate of flights from Beijing to Sanya It even reached 122%, exceeding the level of the same period in 2019.
Fares go up
The data shows that during the New Year’s Day holiday (12.31-1.02) in 2023, civil aviation will transport 2.338 million passengers, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, but the number of passenger flights will be 22,126, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%.
Since the decline in passenger traffic on New Year’s Day in 2023 is lower than the decline in flight volume, the passenger load factor and ticket prices are also better than the same period.
According to data from the Ctrip platform, the average price of domestic one-way air tickets including tax during the New Year’s Day period reached 901 yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 35%. The transportation cost in popular cities has risen even higher. During the New Year’s Day, the average price of one-way air tickets including tax in and out of Sanya reached 1,364 yuan, second only to Tibet, Xinjiang and other long-distance destinations, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 50%; Harbin, Yanji, Baishan, Zhangjiakou, Air tickets to ice and snow destinations such as Altay and Kanas also showed a trend of “both volume and price”.
The same journey travel big data also shows that on New Year’s Day this year, domestic air ticket orders increased by 2% compared with the 2020 New Year’s Day holiday before the epidemic, and the average air ticket price rose from 676 yuan in the same period in 2020 to 905 yuan. On the one hand, it is due to the gradual recovery of people’s travel confidence, and the demand for long-distance travel has increased. On the other hand, this year’s Spring Festival holiday is earlier this year, and the peak passenger flow during the Spring Festival travel season is ahead of schedule, resulting in superimposed travel demand.
On the Qunar platform, the average price paid for domestic air tickets since December has shown a V-shaped trend. It was at a high level in early December, and the price was lower from the 13th to the 18th. Some passengers grabbed low-priced tickets during this period. Since December 19th, the average price paid for air tickets for New Year’s Day trips has increased day by day. The average price paid for air tickets to Sanya More than a thousand dollars. The average price paid for air tickets from Kunming, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Dalian and other cities is less than 500 yuan, making travel relatively cheap.
The booking volume of train tickets has also reached the peak in the past three months, mainly for short-distance routes. The popular routes are Chengdu-Chongqing, Beijing-Tianjin, Chengdu-Leshan, Chengdu-Liangshan, Kunming-Xishuangbanna, Shenzhen-Guangzhou.
These cities are full of blood
The increase in demand for inter-provincial travel has also caused the aviation market in many cities to “recover blood” quickly.
According to Flight Steward’s data, among major domestic cities, the volume of inbound and outbound passenger flights in Ningbo, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Kunming, Harbin and other places has exceeded the level of the same period in 2022. To more than 90% of the same period in 2019. However, the market recovery in Nanchang, Yantai, Yinchuan and other places was relatively slow, less than 40% of the same period in 2019.
Specific to domestic routes, the TOP10 city lines are mainly based on the city-to-city routes between Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Sichuan and Chongqing. In terms of recovery rate, thanks to the opening of Tianfu Airport, the recovery rate of relevant routes in the Chengdu market is relatively high, and the recovery rate of flights from Beijing to Sanya has reached 122%, which has exceeded the level of the same period in 2019.
In the whole of 2022, except for Chengdu Tianfu Airport, which has just opened a low base in 2021 and achieved positive growth in outbound flights in 2022, the outbound flights of other tens of millions of airports will have a negative growth year-on-year in 2021, and the decline ranks among the top three. Tianjin Binhai Airport (-55.4%), Xi’an Xianyang Airport (-52%) and Beijing Capital Airport (-51.8%) respectively.
In 2022, Guangzhou Baiyun Airport will still rank first in the number of outbound flights, followed by Shenzhen Baoan Airport and Kunming Changshui Airport. Hangzhou Xiaoshan Airport is less affected by the epidemic, and its outbound flight volume ranks higher than that of Chengdu and Shanghai. , Beijing and other traditional gateway airports, leapt to the sixth place.
Loong Air, whose main base is in Hangzhou, also became the airline with the best flight recovery during the New Year’s Day period. The New Year’s Day flight volume has exceeded the level of the same period in 2019. The flight volume of the five airlines, China Airlines, Tianjin Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Air China, and Lucky Air, exceeded the level of the same period in 2022.
Steady increase in international travel
With the imminent implementation of quarantine-free measures for entry on January 8, and the continuous recovery and adjustment of international flight capacity since last year, outbound travel on New Year’s Day has also become one of the choices. According to data from Ctrip, the number of cross-border air ticket bookings on New Year’s Day increased by 145% year-on-year, and the popularity of cross-border travel during the Spring Festival travel season was even higher, with bookings increasing by more than 260% year-on-year.
According to data from the FlightAI platform, the passenger volume of cross-border travel increased by about 70% year-on-year during New Year’s Day, which is the best short holiday for cross-border travel recovery since the epidemic. In addition, air ticket prices are also falling. The average price of a one-way tax-included air ticket for cross-border travel on New Year’s Day is 2,820 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 20%.
The data of Hanglv Zongheng also shows that since December, the international passenger traffic volume of domestic airlines has been about 2.5 times that of the same period last year. The popular outbound destination cities during the New Year’s Day are: Hong Kong, China, Macau, Bangkok, Osaka, and Chinese Taipei , Tokyo, Singapore, Phnom Penh, Seoul and Los Angeles.
According to the analysis of Zhao Nan, the development director of the aviation industry, from the market point of view, as the epidemic prevention and control measures for entry and exit are gradually relaxed, the demand for passenger travel is gradually released. Since December, the number of inbound and outbound passengers has continued to rise, and the number of daily passengers is higher than last year. During the same period, the number of tourists on December 14 was three times that of the same period last year. From the perspective of supply, the recovery of airline flights and crew supply will take a process, so in 2023, driven by market demand, the number of international flight ticket bookings will grow steadily. “We expect the recovery speed of routes in the Asia-Pacific region to be significantly higher For intercontinental routes, the international civil aviation market will enter a new stage of recovery.”
It is worth noting that after the cancellation of the “five one” international flight volume restrictions, international flights destined for Beijing will no longer be diverted. Hainan Airlines recently announced that, according to relevant policy adjustments, starting from 00:00 on January 12, 2023, Beijing time (calculated based on landing time), all international flights operated by Hainan Airlines destined for Beijing will no longer be diverted.
Prior to this, starting from March 19, 2020, international flights to Beijing had to land at other points of entry in the country and be quarantined at the first point of entry. After 1020 days of implementation of this policy, the countdown to the end is finally ushered in.