Russia’s oil and gas revenues have fallen sharply recently, but Moscow has continued to increase its military spending, resulting in a huge deficit. Currently, it continues to sell its foreign exchange reserves to make up for the deficit. Russian media reported that the leader of the Chechen Republic said whether the Russian army should continue to attack Poland after “solving” Ukraine. The UN Secretary-General warned that 2023 may lead to a larger-scale war.
The Russian army will increase its troops in Udon. After mid-February, there may be a new offensive. Experts assess the possible attack direction and may mobilize an additional 500,000 soldiers.
Serhiy Haidai, the governor of eastern Ukraine’s Luhansk state, said Russia was building up troops in Ukraine and could prepare for a new offensive next week along a front that has been grappling for months, Reuters reported. .
“We see more and more (Russian) reserve troops being sent in our direction, and we see more equipment being brought in,” Heday told Ukrainian television.
“They’re bringing in ammunition, they’re using it differently than they were before, instead of shelling 24/7, they’re slowly starting to conserve and get ready for a full-scale attack,” he said. (This offensive) could happen anytime after February 15.”
The Russo-Ukraine war is approaching a turning point when it is about to reach its one-year mark. Ukraine no longer has won many victories like it did in the second half of last year, and Russia has mobilized hundreds of thousands of reserve troops to move forward. Ukraine is worried that Russia, based on “symbolic” significance, will launch a large-scale offensive on the anniversary of the war and is in urgent need of military assistance from Western countries.
Ukrainian defense analyst Kovalenko (Oleksandr Kovalenko) believes that the new wave of Russian offensives may be launched from one of four directions, including Lugansk in the east, Donetsk in the east, and the southeast. Zaporizhzhia and the southeastern port city of Mariupol.
Kovalenko pointed out that the situation in Donetsk is the most dangerous, especially in Bakhmut and Avdiivka, where the Russian army is increasing its troops and armaments. Malibo has been occupied by the Russian army since May last year. Kovalenko believes that Malibo may be used as a transportation hub by the Russian army to transport troops and equipment for the new wave of offensive.
The British Ministry of Defense pointed out on February 5 that the Russian army has made progress after attacking Bakhmut for months, and the Ukrainian army currently stationed there may be cut off from external communication and have difficulty in supplying supplies. But CNN reported that Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi pointed out that the terrain around Bakhmut provided a “natural defense” and made Bakhmut an invincible fortress. Thousands of Russian troops were killed Here, the Ukrainians are using all available defensive options to destroy enemy units, and the battle is still ongoing.
Ukraine is planning to counterattack in the spring and regain lost ground, but it is still waiting for the delivery of long-range missiles and tanks promised by Western countries. Some analysts believe Ukraine will be months away from being ready.
Kovalenko said that Ukraine will not launch a counterattack soon, and the Ukrainian army will take the defensive first, especially in Donetsk. “It may be an active defense, but it is still defensive. The intention is still to block the advance of the Russian army.”
“The situation in other areas may change faster, but this situation may last for two to two and a half months, and that’s the time it takes to get the tanks to the troops and train and equip everything,” he said.
CNN reported that Vadym Skibitskyi of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s General Intelligence Directorate (GUR) pointed out that Russia will mobilize an additional 300,000 to 500,000 troops, which is different from the 300,000 troops mobilized in October last year, which shows that the Kremlin There is no intention to end the war. In the future, it may attack Donetsk and Lugansk, and may also attack Zaporozhia. The Russian army will turn on the defensive in Kherson and Crimea.
Skibitsky also pointed out the current predicament of missile production in Russia. In the past, Russia produced no more than 200 missiles per year. Now Russia can only produce 4 “Iskander” (Iskander) cruise missiles per month. Kh- As for the 101 cruise missile, depending on Russia’s stock of imported parts and components, it is estimated that 20 to 30 pieces may be produced per month.
Claiming that the Uzbekistan offensive went smoothly, the Russian Defense Minister accused the West of trying to prolong the conflict between Russia and Ukraine
Agence France-Presse reported that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed on February 7 that the Russian army’s offensive against Vuhledar and Bakhmut in Udon had achieved a major success. The speech also once again warned Western countries not to provide military aid to Ukraine.
“The United States and its allies are trying to prolong the conflict as long as possible. To achieve this, they started supplying heavy weapons (to Ukraine) and openly calling for the seizure of our territories,” Shoigu told a defense conference.
“These actions have drawn NATO countries into the conflict and it is not yet possible to predict the escalation,” Shoigu added.
According to estimates from the British Ministry of Defense, in order to capture the remaining areas of Donetsk (Donetsk), the Russian army has been trying to launch a large-scale offensive since January, but judging from the results, the Russian army can only move the front line every week. Advance several hundred meters.
The British Ministry of Defense believes that the reason why the Russian army cannot advance effectively is because of the lack of ammunition, and the number of mobile units is not enough to pose a threat to the Ukrainian army.
Ukraine blasts Russia “begging” for negotiations through middlemen, Kyiv opens 4 conditions
Although the Russian Defense Minister claimed that the Ukrainian offensive had achieved a major success, Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary General of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Affairs Committee, revealed in an interview with Kyiv radio station Radio NV on the 6th that Russia began to “beg for war” through intermediaries. “Negotiations were held, but Ukraine proposed 4 simple conditions.
Danilov said, “(Russian President) Putin ordered a full-scale siege of Luhansk and Donetsk regions. There is no secret behind this. However, they are now beginning to realize that it is absolutely impossible to achieve the intended goal of occupying our country. Why did they find a bunch of middlemen and start begging (negotiating).”
He revealed that Russia is currently cooperating with different groups on a large scale in order to enter negotiations. They are considering Brazil or any country you can imagine as a mediator, hoping to resolve this issue in some way through negotiations.
Danilov said that, in turn, Ukraine only set four simple conditions for Russia: one, to withdraw from all Ukrainian territories that are now temporarily occupied; Person accountability for children, the elderly and women; three, security guarantees in Ukraine; four, accountability.
Danilov stressed that accepting the terms of the terrorists is absolutely unacceptable. “First Putin must meet the conditions of our country’s existence, nothing else will work.”
According to “Business Insider”, the Russian Ministry of Finance stated in a report on the 6th that oil and gas revenues in January fell by 46% compared with the same period last year, to only 426 billion rubles. The Treasury Department attributed the drop in revenue to lower crude oil export prices and lower natural gas exports. The average price of crude sold by Russia in January was $49.48 a barrel, well below Russia’s expected price of $70 a barrel.
Meanwhile, Russia’s total government spending in January rose 58.7 percent to 3.12 trillion rubles compared to the same period last year. Since Russia plans to increase defense spending to 3.5 trillion rubles in 2023, the apparent increase in spending is not surprising.
The decline in energy revenue and the increase in fiscal expenditure have led to a huge deficit of 1.76 trillion rubles in Russia last month. Russia continues to sell energy to countries including China and India to increase its income, and at the same time continues to sell foreign exchange reserves in an attempt to make up for the fiscal gap caused by the war.
Last week, Russia’s finance ministry said it would sell more than $2 billion worth of foreign exchange reserves between Feb. 7 and March 6, almost double the amount sold last month.
Go to Poland!Chechnya’s “talker king” speaks of new Russian target
Russia sent troops to invade Ukraine, shouting slogans such as “de-militarization” and “de-Nazification”. While the flames of war were still raging, according to a report by the Russian Satellite News Agency (Sputnik) on the 6th, Kadyrov, the leader of the Chechen Autonomous Republic ( Ramzan Kadyrov posed a conundrum: what would happen if, after the success of Russia’s “special operation” in Ukraine, it began the process of “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Poland.
He posted on his personal Telegram channel: “In the framework of supporting Ukraine, Warsaw was able to exhaust its own military resources, and now it is in a panic: if Russia, after the successful completion of special military operations, begins to de-Nazi the next country What about demilitarization and demilitarization? After all, after Ukraine, Poland is on the map!”
After Russia invaded Ukraine, the soldiers under Kadyrov’s command repeatedly “posed” to make fake jokes, and were dubbed the “TikTok Force” by foreign media. “Wang” and other titles also spread like wildfire. He recently made a bold prediction, saying that Russia will never be defeated. If the nuclear button is pressed, Russians will go to heaven, while others can only go to hell.
The Guardian reported that the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war has worried UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “The prospect of peace still looks remote. The chances of a worsening of the situation and the intensity of the fighting continue to increase. My fear is that the world is not heading involuntarily towards larger wars, but on purpose,” he said.
Other conflict zones include the conflict between Israel and Palestine, as well as the crises in Afghanistan, Myanmar, the Sahel and Haiti.
Speaking to delegates at the UN General Assembly, Guterres cited the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the climate crisis and extreme poverty as priorities for this year. He said frankly, “From the beginning of 2023, we have focused on many various challenges that we have never faced in this life.”
Guterres mentioned that top scientists and security experts adjusted the doomsday clock to 90 seconds to midnight last month, which is the closest time in history to human destruction, emphasizing that “we must wake up and start acting.”
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