Original title: The new variant of the virus caused the global market to plummet. Has the market panic too much?
Reported by Wu Bin, a reporter from 21st Century Business Herald After the celebration of Thanksgiving in many countries, the market plunged to welcome investors from all over the world…
After South Africa issued an alert about a rapidly spreading new variant virus, the global market “wasted” on November 26. European stock markets plunged 3%, Dow futures plunged nearly a thousand points, Asian stock markets hit their biggest decline in two months, crude oil futures plummeted, and the yields of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds began to dive, investors flocked to bonds. , The Japanese Yen and the U.S. dollar seek safe-haven.
“The trigger is the new variant virus and the uncertainty it causes,” said Ray Attrill, head of foreign exchange strategy at National Australia Bank in Sydney. “When this kind of news breaks out, people will shoot first and then ask questions.”
“The market predicts that if the vaccine is ineffective against the new variant virus, there may be another wave of global infection risks,” warned Moh Siong Sim, a currency analyst at the Bank of Singapore. “The hope of reopening may be dashed.”
But just as the global market fell sharply, there were also views that the market was “paniced too much” as usual.
A US-funded agency trader told a reporter from 21st Century Business Herald that, based on the experience of mutated viruses and repeated epidemics in the past, the global market’s initial response was a sharp drop, but then it often rebounds quickly. US stocks are In this context, it has repeatedly set new highs. In fact, the impact of repeated epidemics and variant viruses on the market has been relatively smaller and smaller, and it is almost impossible for extreme market conditions such as US stocks to melt.
The new variant of the virus
The root cause of the market crash is a new variant virus detected in South Africa. This variant virus named B.1.1.529 carries a series of “very unusual” mutations. Some countries worry that it may avoid human immunity. Responsive and more communicative.
De Oliveira, head of the Center for Epidemiological Response and Innovation at Stellenbosch University in South Africa and a member of the WHO Working Group on Monitoring Variant Strains, said that researchers first detected B.1.1.529 on November 12th. Since then, this A mutated strain has caused an exponential increase in the number of new crown infections in South Africa. The number of new infections this Wednesday exceeded 1,200, which is about four times the number two weeks ago.
Today, in Gauteng, South Africa’s most populous province, B.1.1.529 has accounted for about 90% of the new crown cases, quickly replacing Delta as the main strain. Gauteng is the political and economic province of Pretoria and Johannesburg. The seat of the capital. This new variant virus has also been found in other parts of the world.
In response, the United Kingdom warned that the B.1.1.529 variant virus may reduce the effectiveness of the vaccine, jeopardizing global progress in fighting the epidemic. The British authorities have quickly imposed travel restrictions on South Africa and its five neighboring countries, and the operation is faster than the previous discovery of the variant. Time is much faster. British Health Secretary Sajid Javid said on Friday that the new variant virus named “B.1.1.529” is now likely to have spread beyond South Africa and Botswana and into other countries.
From a global perspective, dozens of countries have restricted travel to and from South Africa and its neighbors on Friday. The European Union said on Friday that it will propose an “emergency brake” to stop air travel between the European Union and southern Africa. At the same time, several EU member states have adopted restrictive measures on their own, and the United Kingdom and several Asian countries have also introduced restrictive measures.
Market panic
Regarding the latest variant of the virus, the UK Health Security Agency stated that B.1.1.529 has a spike protein, which is very different from the protein in the original coronavirus on which the new coronavirus vaccine is based, and that this The variant is called the “worst variant virus to date”, and its number of mutations is twice that of the currently dominant delta variant.
“As far as we know, there are a large number of mutations, perhaps twice the number of mutations in the Delta variant virus we have seen, which suggests that it may be more contagious and our existing vaccines may be less effective.” Sajid Javid warned several media outlets.
It is worth noting that the World Health Organization (WHO) will hold an emergency expert meeting on Friday to discuss whether to declare this new variant virus as a “variant of concern” (variant of concern).
For those strains that have been shown to be more infectious, cause more serious diseases, or reduce the effectiveness of public health measures, testing, treatment, or vaccines, the WHO will include them on the list of “mutant strains of concern”. Other mutant strains of concern include Delta virus, which is now dominating the world, and Alpha virus, which caused a wave of deadly infections in Europe and the United States last winter and spring.
It should be noted that at present, the world has only a preliminary understanding of the B.1.1.529 variant virus, and it may take several weeks to obtain all the information about its characteristics. The title of “the worst variant virus so far” has yet to be tested by facts.
The South African official statement also confirmed this. “Currently data is limited and our experts are working overtime with all surveillance systems to understand this new variant and possible impact,” the South African National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NICD) said in a statement.
“People are worried that the new variant virus may be stronger than the Delta variant virus, which has led investors to consider the worst-case scenario-the city will be forced to lock down again.” Matsui Securities senior strategist Tomoichiro Kubota said, but the market’s reaction “seems a little bit Too much, because currently very little is known about this latest variant of the virus.”
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