[The Epoch Times, March 24, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Zhang Ting comprehensive report) Russia’s war in Ukraine has been nearly a month, and the advance of the Russian army in some major cities, including the capital Kyiv, appears to have slowed down. Even as there are growing signs that Russia’s attack on Ukraine appears to have fallen short of its original plan, Moscow has also given no signal to stop the invasion.
So where is this war going? Here are five possible things to watch for in the coming weeks, as compiled by CNN.
1. Russia may step up its bombing campaign
Experts have warned that the more the Russian military is hit with ground-based operations, the more likely it is to intensify its aerial bombardment operations and use other “confrontation” weapons to reduce the danger to Russian soldiers.
There is currently no reliable information on the war death toll, either from Ukraine or from Russia.
Pro-Kremlin Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda on Monday (March 21) quoted the Russian Defense Ministry as saying 9,861 Russian soldiers had been killed since the war began. It has since removed the article.
The newspaper’s Kremlin correspondent explained on Tuesday that the paper had been hacked and published false stories on its website, Reuters reported.
Such Russian losses, if proven to be true, would explain the stagnation of Russian ground operations and increased aerial bombardment of major cities and other standoff attacks.
“Russia still has capabilities and reserves, and will increase in intensity as it works to bring in more troops,” Jeffrey Mankoff, a distinguished fellow at the National Defense University’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNN.
The question is, how long can Russia hold out with massive losses of military personnel?
2. Although the focus is on Kyiv, the Russian army may try to surround the Ukrainian army in the east
There are a lot of claims online that Russia’s combat efforts are stalling, but whether that’s true depends first and foremost on Moscow’s goals.
At the very least, Russia is likely to try to absorb parts of eastern Ukraine, CNN said. Experts say places like Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas region have been under the control of Russian-backed separatists since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, despite the fact that Russia’s ambitions may extend beyond the Donbass, but it could still be a central focus.
While Russia’s advance on Kyiv has attracted a lot of attention, most of the Ukrainian forces remain near Donetsk and Luhansk. There they were combined into Joint Force Operations (JFO). The movement of the Russian forces indicates that they are trying to surround the JFO, which may be the main focus of Russia. That’s clear from the sophistication of the troops being sent there, said Sam Cranny-Evans, a research analyst at the Joint Services Institute RUSI.
Craney-Evans told CNN that the troops fighting in Donetsk, Luhansk, Mariupol, Berdyansk, Melitopol were Russian troops the best troops. They are always on a mission, and they were originally prepared to fight NATO.
He added that the Western media was so focused on Russian losses and Ukraine’s contempt for Russian troops that it had a false sense of the dynamics of the war.
Craney-Evans also said that if you look at the maps, it is obvious that the Russian military has actually advanced far in Ukraine. They have taken over quite a few towns, so there are far more Ukrainian citizens living under Russian rule now than there were three weeks ago.
3. There will be more discussions about negotiations
One scenario is that the Ukraine war could become a protracted conflict. Russia is likely to lose a large number of soldiers, weapons and equipment in the war, and while Russia has been involved in protracted conflicts in the past, it does not want to have its military completely destroyed this time around.
“Negotiations are an area that looks a bit promising, as both Russia and Ukraine said last week that they are moving towards real substantive discussions, rather than Russia just giving an ultimatum (to Ukraine).” Chatham, a British think tank Keir Giles, a Russia expert at Chatham House, told CNN.
Russian officials said their demands included Ukraine’s renunciation of NATO membership, demilitarization and a “neutral” status. But what that means for Ukraine has to be negotiated.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s chief spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told CNN on Tuesday (March 22) that Russia also wants Ukraine to accept Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Becoming part of Russia, as well as recognizing two “so-called” republics in the Donbas region of Ukraine.
4. There may be a large number of Ukrainians “expelled” to Russia
Russia has been telling residents of the southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol to leave. The Russian army has opened “humanitarian corridors” to allow civilians to flee, but tens of thousands of them have been transported to Russia.
Russian state media organization RIA Novosti reported that nearly 60,000 residents of Mariupol had reached Russia in “complete safety”. Russian media showed rows of vehicles apparently heading east towards the border about 40 kilometers from Mariupol.
But the Mariupol parliament accused Russia of forcing Ukrainian residents to travel to Russia against their will. “Over the past week, thousands of Mariupol residents have been brought into Russian territory,” the city said in a statement.
“Deportation” is a euphemism for slavery and starvation, said Gilles, a Russia expert. “They generally have pretty dire fates.”
5. There are still millions of Ukrainians who could flee, shattering a country
The fate of the war is one thing, but the fate of Ukraine is another. Just as Russian air power has turned some Syrian towns into rubble, the same is starting to happen in parts of Ukraine.
More than 3.5 million Ukrainians have left the country. Most were women and children, which meant families were also torn apart. The war sparked the largest refugee influx in Europe since World War II. And the number is increasing by about 100,000 people a day.
If the number of internally displaced people in Ukraine is included, 10 million Ukrainians have now left their homes. That’s almost a quarter of the country’s population.
Responsible editor: Ye Ziwei#