In Yangon, Myanmar’s commercial capital, people have been scrambling to find hospital beds and find oxygen for their family and friends who have been infected with the new crown virus. The corpses piled up in the cemetery. Due to economic despair and the deadly virus raging the people, neither the military with de facto power nor the parallel government with international influence have been able to reverse the tide of the epidemic or break the political deadlock.
After the coup d’etat on February 1 triggered mass protests and civil disobedience, the army or armed forces tried to control the country. More than 900 people were killed and thousands were arrested.
At the same time, the remnants of Aung San Suu Kyi who had been overthrown in exile or in hiding formed a government of national unity, trying to regain control of the country, but hardly any progress was made.
Now, the two sides are preparing to hold a key diplomatic battle at the United Nations. The qualification review committee is scheduled to be held in September. Both sides are preparing for recognition.
Myanmar’s representative to the United Nations, Kyaw Mo Tun, has always been loyal to the deposed government of Aung San Suu Kyi and demonstrated his loyalty in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly in February.
The military’s attempts to remove him have been futile so far, but this month, the regime’s foreign minister, Winner Maung Lun, nominated Aung Thurein, who had been out of the army for 26 years, to replace Jumo Tun.
In Yangon and the Burmese hinterland, although the National Unity Government has little influence, people hardly need to be reminded why soldiers and generals are not suitable to rule, Dr. Sasha, a cabinet member of the National Unity Government, told in an online interview in an undisclosed location. Al Jazeera.
“They are a failed coup and a failed regime,” said Dr. Sasha, Minister of International Cooperation and spokesman for the Government of National Unity. “They cannot perform any of the government’s functions in healthcare, education, and economics.”
Dr. Sasha’s criticism was reflected in the World Bank’s latest economic report on July 26, which warned that Myanmar’s economy will shrink by 18% this year and the number of poor people will double due to the combined impact of the coup and the new crown epidemic.
The bank warned that the crisis will lead to “destructive effects on lives, livelihoods, poverty and future growth”, which is a severe assessment of the military government.
A Yangon foreign investor who invested millions of dollars in Myanmar said that Myanmar’s economy is in “free fall.” “The military government cannot rule from all aspects. In addition to political turmoil, they have not been able to manage the economic chaos caused by the pandemic blockade measures.”
But the World Bank’s dire warnings have also increased pressure on the national unity government, which has not yet jointly articulated its humanitarian aid policy or clarified how international partners should provide assistance in military-controlled areas.
Strive for recognition
With the delay of the political crisis and the deepening of the health crisis, in addition to issuing statements and announcing policies that cannot be implemented, the window for the government of national unity to play an active role in the crisis is also shrinking.
The coalition government was secretly formed by 20 elected legislators in mid-April, mainly from Aung San Suu Kyi’s National Democratic League.
Some are in exile, while others have taken refuge in border areas controlled by ethnic minority armed groups that have long opposed the Myanmar central government.
Dr. Sasha said that those who remained in the country, including a vice president and prime minister, and several cabinet colleagues, “worked online diplomacy while establishing contact with the local community.”
He said that the cabinet does not have a plan for complete exile and that the National Unity Government “is an electronic government” because “our office is in a computer.”
In order to succeed abroad and gain support, the Government of National Unity has set up offices near Prague and Washington, DC. It also has a representative at the United Nations and some at the Burmese embassy, competing with those appointed by the military.
Despite the unanimous support of foreign politicians, no government has taken action to recognize the government of national unity. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations even refused to invite officials from the organization at the April summit, only inviting the military chief Min Aung Lai.
The National Unity Government is composed of members of the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. Since the military seized power in February 2021, Aung San Suu Kyi has been in detention (Reuters)Some say this may not matter; the National Unity Government’s links with governments and parliaments around the world constitute de facto recognition.
“They may have established more and more meaningful connections than the National Administrative Council,” said Letitia Van den Asum, a retired Dutch diplomat and ambassador to Myanmar and other ASEAN countries.
Van den Azum pointed out the reality that after seizing power six months ago, the military’s National Administrative Council failed to consolidate the results of its coup. “Coups are often short-lived and severe shocks, and effective control is quickly established. If this does not happen, then the coup will fail. This is the case in Myanmar,” she said.
She explained: “China may be the only country that has publicly and clearly stated that it supports the National Executive Council as the best choice.” She added that many Asian countries are still “sit back and watch.”
Although other countries warned against taking any actions that might indicate full recognition of the military government, shortly after the meeting between Chen Hai, China’s highest envoy in Myanmar, and military leaders, the Chinese Embassy in Yangon issued a statement calling Min Aung Lai “the leader of Myanmar”. people”.
At the same time, despite China’s attempts to participate, China dismissed the government of national unity, and Sasha confirmed this position.
Jason Thar, the head of the Burmese country of the American Institute for Peace, said: “I really don’t see where the national unity government has gained any traction among Chinese stakeholders.”
Dr. Sasha believes that China and Russia’s tacit support for the military, especially in the provision of weapons, may allow them to stay in power for longer, but it will not help the generals to gain support from the Burmese people.
“All their support for the military government will be counterproductive, because the people of Myanmar will not forget how the two countries supported the murderer. This is very dangerous for the future of China-Myanmar relations,” he warned.
(Al Jazeera)Position towards the Rohingya
Aung San Suu Kyi defended the military before the coup and opposed the military’s accusation of war crimes against the Rohingya minority in 2017, which is very detrimental to the national unity government.
Ambassador Jumotun’s noncommittal response to the plight of Rohingya Muslims met with strong opposition in the U.S. Congress. California Congressman Ted Liu stated in early May that “the United States should not support Myanmar’s national unity government unless it includes representatives of the Rohingya” and “must commit to stop ethnic cleansing against the Rohingya”.
When Sasha pushed for the recognition of the Rohingya, the divisions within the cabinet on the Rohingya issue reached a peak. According to foreign diplomats familiar with the internal politics of the National Unity Government, the “old guards” of the National League for Democracy countered the action and were furious.
However, in the end, Sasha won the battle with reformist enthusiasm: the National Unity Government declared in its June policy statement that Rohingya “have the right to obtain citizenship in accordance with laws that conform to basic human rights and democratic federal principles.” . It also pledged to repeal Myanmar’s 1982 citizenship law, which was based on a complex classification of 135 ethnic groups, and the exclusion of Rohingya would complicate the possibility of obtaining citizenship. This move was widely praised by Rohingya activists and human rights organizations.
After Aung San Suu Kyi went to The Hague disgracefully to defend the Burmese army accused of genocide, a dramatic turn took place, and the National Unity Government is now supporting the trial of the case by the International Court of Justice.
Sasha believes Aung San Suu Kyi will be “very satisfied” with these changes. “We can’t eliminate what we did in the past. But now we have a different leadership,” he said.
Human rights activist Cheery Zahau expressed doubts about this. He believes that the National Unity Government’s decision to change its past policy towards the Rohingya reflects the political deadlock it is experiencing. She said, “His (Sasha) advisers may tell him that this will give them more international support.”
During the brutal military crackdown in 2017, hundreds of thousands of Rohingya fled Myanmar. As the country’s de facto leader, Aung San Suu Kyi went to The Hague to defend the army against allegations of genocide. Now the National Unity Government has changed its position and expressed its support for the trial of the case by the International Criminal Court (Getty Images)A senior foreign official with close ties to the National League for Democracy said that since Sasha had only recently joined the National League for Democracy and was from Chin State, he may not be “one of them”; they were referring to the old members of the National League for Democracy. Guard. But, at the same time, he added that the “old guards” knew that if they wanted any chance of success, they couldn’t lose him, even if they hated his progressive politics.
Parallel government is nothing new to Myanmar.
Recent examples include the National Coalition Government of the Union of Myanmar in Maryland, which was established in 1990 and did not disband until 2012. The government is led by Aung San Suu Kyi’s cousin Sheng Win.
By going deep into ethnic regions and borders, the National Unity Government hopes to establish closer ties with local people and events to differentiate it from its predecessors.
In the Burmese hinterland controlled by the military, the national unity government still influences the direction of resistance and strikes and international sanctions.
“The national unity government may be more organized than the previous government in exile, but they face similar legality challenges, and as the conflict continues, the battle for legality has become more and more intense,” said David Ma, an expert on Myanmar issues. Sisen warned.
Diplomatic exercises
In September, the National Unity Government will be tested at the United Nations.
“The government of national unity may have broad support from the protesters. Some but not all local communities, the People’s Defence Forces and many people who suffered cruel and brutal injuries from the occupation forces and riot police after the coup, but it still resembles Dr. Sasha himself. It’s an e-government as it is said,” said Mary Callahan, an expert on Myanmar issues at the University of Washington.
“It does not have any important institutions to implement policies or interventions determined by the central government. Therefore, it is not surprising that it focuses on gaining international recognition.”
Recent developments can offer a glimmer of hope.
In June, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution urging member states to “prevent the flow of weapons” into Myanmar with an overwhelming majority of votes. Only 31 abstentions, including China and Russia, the military’s largest sponsors, were voted against, from Belarus.
Within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Brunei, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand, which are responsible for resolving the political crisis in Myanmar, abstained, while other countries supported the embargo.
The director of the Institute of Security and International Issues at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, Thitinan Ponsuthirat, pointed out that this 10-member group “divided from the beginning when some member states looted democracy against the armed forces of Myanmar. Power turns a blind eye”, while other member states demand the release of detained politicians and the restoration of the democratic process.
He said that the UN vote reflects this divergence, and that “countries on the same front do not support non-binding resolutions against arms sales to Myanmar”, adding that if the vote is taken, he expects the same tendency to reappear.
ASEAN invited the senior general of the military government of Myanmar, Min Aung Lai (left), instead of the civilian government representatives he forced to step down, to participate in a special summit in Jakarta in April (Reuters)He told Al Jazeera: “The touchstone of ASEAN will now depend on Myanmar’s legal representation in the United Nations, whether it is the military’s national administrative council or the national unity government led by civilian officials. The major powers in the P5 (permanent member of the UN Security Council) will Have a decisive say. If the United States consistently recognizes a government of national unity when the United Kingdom and France support it while China and Russia oppose it, then the internal division of ASEAN will be even weaker.”
Foreign officials of Western democratic governments dealing with the National Unity Government stated that the parallel government should continue to announce policies and plans for governance, economic development, and the establishment of parliaments.
Western diplomats in Yangon said that by acting as a shadow government, the national unity government will remind the Burmese people and the world why they are preferable to the military, which will help them seek international support and remain relevant at home.
Jason Tal, the representative of the U.S. Institute for Peace in Myanmar, said that it is difficult to predict how the UN certification battle will develop. The date of the decision has not yet been set.
“At present, if we look at the internal situation of the conference and the attitudes of the main members of the international community, we will find that the high probability is to maintain the status quo (choose Jue Mo Tun),” he said.
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