Home » The war in Ukraine and the planetary equilibrium: the US pushes Moscow into China

The war in Ukraine and the planetary equilibrium: the US pushes Moscow into China

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The war in Ukraine and the planetary equilibrium: the US pushes Moscow into China

The strategic dynamics of this not too indirect war between Washington and Moscow pushes the rupture between Europe and Russia. The result can be a more or less American Europe pushed almost to the gates of Moscow and a Russia in the Chinese orbit. The tactical-military outcomes and above all the duration of the conflict between one cease-fire and the other can slow down or bend this trajectory. Hard to change it. At least as long as you only fight in the Ukrainian theater. Whether in Ukraine the Americans via Ukrainians (possible) or the Russians (unlikely) prevail over time, as well as in the event of a temporary stalemate codified in a new partition of the country, the separation between NATO and the Russian Federation leads to divorce without appeal. Sanctioned by sanctions, difficult to revoke in substance and in spirit. Over the years we will be able to modulate the degree of separation, never recover it the status quo.

The Ukrainian game is in fact double. World and continental veterinarian. In terms of planetary equilibrium, for the Americans, rejecting the Russians in Asia means hitting the main enemy together: China. Forced to rescue a partner to whom she attributed special military virtue and decent reliability. Both evaporated on first contact with the evidence of war. The Russian-Chinese agreement does not break, but only due to the temporary lack of alternatives. Xi no longer trusts Putin. The heated public debate that broke out in Beijing on the war, with the display of sensationally Russophobic voices, testifies to Chinese disorientation. At the same time, the People’s Republic qualifies as an indispensable reference for that vast part of the world – demographically majority – which does not want to take sides with either the Russians or the Americans. The two votes that the UN General Assembly has cast on American-handled resolutions condemning Moscow are as factually empty as they are geopolitically significant. The unmarking of India, which for Washington is an essential pivot of anti-China containment, of Israel and the United Arab Emirates are the three maximum neutralist defections, indigestible in Washington.

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On the scale that touches us most, the exclusion of Russia from our continent confirms the deep divisions among us Europeans over whether and how to deal with Moscow. In this scheme we separate along a fault drawn by radical historical, cultural and geopolitical divergences, aggravated by the sanctions with which Washington intends to press on Moscow (results not received) and which fall heavily on European allies, willing or forced to adopt their own. There are those who intend to follow the American current because they aspire to the rank of Atlantic avant-garde and trust in the Washington umbrella. Those who persist in the utopia of Europe as a power – cryptogram of early imperial Europeanism, to the Coudenhove-Kalergi – but in the meantime it reprotects itself in its own way in the stars and stripes empire (France). And who swings (Germany).

In economic and social peace terms, the losers of this war, well after the Russians, will be us Europeans. Without prejudice to the fate of the main victims, the Ukrainians. Millions of which will eventually settle in the heart of Europe, especially in Poland but also in Italy. How much in the coming months and years we will be able to show solidarity with the Ukrainian refugees and not only will give us a measure of our vaunted civilization.

Geographical paradox has it that the hyper-American and Western Europeans because they are Russophobes, led by Poland with Romania not very brilliant second, are located east of Elba, the canonical frontier between West and East. The Poles hope to push the Euro-Atlantic borders beyond the Bug, at least as far as the Dnieper, if the Russians keep Crimea and Donbas. Their close patron is England, which smells of victory in yet another episode of the Great Game. More than ever the handmaid of America, London is crushed on it to the point of embarrassing it. With or without the rest of her Kingdom.

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To the west we meet the orphans of Russia. Understanding balancing of both Germany and America. France is the leader, around the magnet of the Rhine. The Bundesrepublik is poised between the opposing options embodied by its western majority still economist and by the eastern minority, which exhibits red-brown veins. Forced by the war to re-enter history, Germany remains the big question mark. Italy bewildered follows limping between Berlin and Paris.

The end of peace indefinitely, due to the direct or indirect involvement of all powers in the battle for Donbas (!), Is worse than the beginning of a war that can certainly be circumscribed, like all the others in progress. Elsewhere, peace had already evaporated or never really established. But if peace ends in Europe, the world really changes.

Poetry, a crossroads between fantasy and reality, can help us understand. Maxims in the prophetic prose of our perhaps greatest writer, Anna Maria Ortese (1914-98). Where the need for reality, especially the invisible, passes through fantasy. Revolution. To understand its meaning, each of her in her freedom, to her the last word, taken from Children of creation.

“(…) To understand, to finally understand if, after half a century of horrors, and a century or two of cultural blunders, to understand if the younger and more prepared men (…) have finally understood what is the heart of the problem, the heart of the time, the heart of truth (of this hell that grips history from private to public, from the coasts where the sun rises to those where it sets). And which Revolution we expect. (…) It concerns liberation of other peoples – the dumb peoples of this earth, the soulless peoples – by the Dictator endowed with a soul and moreover immortal! – who has always been their executioner. The name of him (of this executioner) is known, but his lip does not always agree to pronounce it. How and when will this revolution begin? I do not know. But it will be the greatest, and from it alone will some hope for the proud human life begin again ».

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