Donald Trump could be indicted in New York as early as this week for allegedly covering up dirty money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels during her 2016 presidential campaign, nearly seven years after the alleged money handover. But a possible trial of the former US president would eventually take place in more than a year, according to legal experts, and could coincide with the last months of the 2024 presidential campaign, when Trump will try to return to the White House.
Will he be the first former US president to be criminally charged?
In a social media post on Saturday, March 18, Trump said he expected to be arrested next Tuesday and called on his followers to protest, though a spokesman later said Trump had not been notified of any pending arrests. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg presented to a New York grand jury evidence of a $130,000 payment to porn star Stormy Daniels in the final days of the 2016 presidential campaign in exchange for her silence about an alleged affair, according to the sources. Trump denied the affair and his attorney charged Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, with extortion. If he were indicted, Trump would become the first former US president to be prosecuted.
The risk of a trial in 2024
Polls put him ahead of other potential rivals for the Republican nomination, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is expected to run for the White House. According to former Manhattan assistant chief district attorney Karen Friedman Agnifilo, the average criminal case in New York City takes more than a year to go from indictment to trial, and Trump’s case is far from typical. This raises the possibility that Trump will face trial in the middle of the 2024 presidential campaign, or even after Election Day, even though putting a president-elect or president on trial on state charges would be entering uncharted waters.
As president he could not “grace himself”
If elected, he would not have the power to pardon himself of state charges. “This is such an unprecedented case that it is difficult for me to pronounce,” Agnifilo said when asked if a judge could try Trump close to the election. “I think it’s complicated.” The New York investigation is one of many involving Trump: there are also an investigation into election interference in Georgia and a pair of federal investigations into his role in the January 6, 2021 storming of the Capitol by his supporters who sought to overturn the defeat and on his retention of confidential documents after leaving the White House.
The challenge of chance
Early in his career in real estate, as a TV celebrity, and later in politics, the notoriously argumentative Trump engaged in aggressive countermoves and delaying tactics when faced with legal challenges. The former president accused Bragg, an elected Democrat, of targeting him for political gain and may seek to have the charges dropped on that grounds. Trump would likely pursue other avenues as well, some of which could involve thorny legal issues that take time to resolve.