Ukraine war: What do Russian army death figures mean? – BBC News in Chinese

The first report on Russian casualties published by the BBC’s Russian Department observed a similar trend – of the 557 identified dead, 109 were officers, or 19.6 percent.

The high percentage of officers in this set of figures does not mean that one out of every five Russians killed in action was an officer. However, Samuel Cranny-Evans, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), pointed out that traditionally, the remains of fallen Russian commanders are given priority to return home, and the authorities are more likely Publicly announce their deaths.

The expert said, “In the past conflicts, the Russian army paid more attention to bringing the remains of dead senior officers back home. It paid less attention to the fallen junior officers. But at the same time, officers did form the backbone of the Russian army. .”

The BBC found that there were 10 colonels, 20 lieutenant colonels, 31 majors and 155 junior officers (from lieutenant to captain) on the Russian army’s dead list.

Ukraine claims seven Russian generals have been killed, but Russia has only confirmed the death of Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky.

In the militaries of NATO countries, many combat tasks on the battlefield are delegated to sergeants, corporals, and other junior officers. But in the Russian army, only officers above the rank of lieutenant can make decisions of the same rank.

“Russian officers are responsible for the tactical command and training of platoon- or battalion-level units,” Craney-Evans said. “Sgt. Sergeants in the Russian military are usually only responsible for equipping or following orders from their superiors, which means they don’t command any soldiers. This means that officers are forced to take on more command functions. As a result, Russian officers are more likely to die in combat than officers in many other armies.”

When examining the list of Russian casualties, another trend was evident: about 15 percent of the casualties were from airborne troops.

Experts interviewed by the BBC pointed out that the Russian military has always used airborne troops extensively for tasks that, in theory, should be carried out by conventional infantry units. But Russian commanders prefer to use paratroopers because these units are well-trained, physically fit and have high morale.

The relatively high rate of casualties among airborne troops is not surprising, said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the US Foreign Policy Research Institute. “Airborne troops generally operate in the most difficult areas of the front line – in Hostomel, the fighting near the capital Kyiv and the conflict in southern Ukraine.”

On the first day of the war, the Russian airborne troops captured the Antonov airport near the village of Khostomel – the troops hoped that the Russian army from Belarus would establish an air bridge with them and provide supply support. But this plan did not materialize. After a month of intense fighting, Ukrainian troops recaptured the airport on March 31.

Craney-Evans pointed out that the Russian military’s multi-arms joint operations were slow, and the forward airborne troops did not receive follow-up large-force support and air cover.

Regarding the death toll of Russia’s elite troops: We confirmed the death list including 15 special forces of the Russian General Intelligence Service (GRU) (including 5 officers) and 10 officers and soldiers of the special forces of the National Guard.

At least three of the dead were wearing “red berets”: Ruslan Galyamov and Oleg Kirillov from Tatarstan and from the Perm region of Vyacheslav Aktyashev. These dead are the elite of the Russian special forces. To be eligible to wear the red beret, Russian military personnel must pass what is considered the most difficult and rigorous selection test in the world.

The list of Russian soldiers we confirmed also included a soldier whose profession was surprising. On March 28, a reporter from Bryansk reported on the death of Alexander Karpeev, a senior sergeant of the military band. The report specifically mentioned Karpeev playing the trumpet in the band. However, the report did not say what mission he was in Ukraine.

As we all know, in most cases, the remains of officers and soldiers are transported back to their hometowns two to three weeks after their death. For example, Ruslan Galyamov, a second lieutenant of the special forces of the Russian National Guard, was killed on March 11 and buried on March 26, according to published data.

In some cases, it took more than a month to bring the dead back home. According to official figures, 20-year-old Mikhail Bakanov was killed on February 25, the second day of the war. The military only brought his body back to his hometown at the end of March.

An analysis by the British Royal Institute for Defence and Security Studies pointed out that the time it takes to repatriate the remains of the dead in major modern military conflicts is a classic example.

Craney-Evans said, “In a context like the Ukraine war, the living always take precedence over the dead. Protecting and providing for the living is always a priority. The repatriation of the dead is less important. Because The changing front lines make the job more difficult. At this stage of the conflict, the advancing flanks on both sides are difficult to protect and vulnerable to enemy attack.”

Ukrainian officials and eyewitnesses have repeatedly said that Russian troops discarded the remains of fallen soldiers as they retreated. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv wanted the bodies of the dead to be handed over to Russia, but Russia “rejected at first, but later offered body bags”.

In the second half of March, Nikolaev district chief executive Vitaly Kim urged local residents to report the location of the remains of Russian soldiers killed in the recapture zone in Ukraine.

“They don’t always take them[士兵的遗体], that’s going to be our problem when spring and summer come. Please tell us where the remains are, … in bags if possible. Therefore, I ask that the remains must be collected, stored in the refrigerator, and then shipped back to their hometowns so that the remains can be DNA tested, because these soldiers also have mothers. “

At least three Russian soldiers were identified only after DNA testing. Alexander Vavilin, 21, from Nizhny Novgorod, died in action on February 27, but his family was not informed of his death until April 1. Authorities have been conducting inspections, according to local media reports. The family has been awaiting the results of his DNA test. Alexander Yemtsov, 27, from Transbaikalia, was also identified through a DNA test. He was killed in a burnt Russian armored personnel carrier.

The region with the most reported Russian casualties is Dagestan, where 93 dead soldiers are known to be buried. Local schools were named after them, and even streets were renamed after them.

Other regions with higher casualties were reported to be: Buryatia with 52, Volgograd with 48, Orenburg with 41 and North Ossetia with 39.

However, this does not mean that the government is conscripting troops from certain regions in particular to participate in the war against Ukraine, as some experts and journalists have suggested.

Professor Natalya Zubarevich, who specializes in the study of social and economic development in Russia, said in an interview with the BBC, “Most of the Russian military contract soldiers come from the vast marginal areas, not limited to the south, nor limited to the North Caucasus, and It’s the entire fringe – including small and medium cities, towns and villages.”

She points out that young people from depressed or semi-depressed regions of Russia often enlist in the military. Buryatia is considered one of such regions.

Mikhail Garmaev is from Ulan-Ude. He came from such a depressed area. After graduating from junior high school, he entered a construction technical school, but before completing his studies, he joined the army. After retiring, Mikhail returned to Ulan-Ude and found a job at a siren fitting company. But a few years later he returned to the army and signed a contract. On March 6, near the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, Mikhail was ambushed and shot twice. On March 21, he was buried in Ulan-Ude.

Many Russian soldiers killed in the Ukrainian war had a similar experience – went to school, joined the army, hoped to find a job after retiring, but then returned to the army to serve as a soldier.

“The military is an important employer in areas where it is difficult to make money. Enlisting in the military can provide you with a stable salary and security,” Professor Zubarevich explained.

However, various regions of Russia still hold different attitudes towards releasing information on the dead.

In eight regions, there were no reports of Russian troops killed in action by local officials. But three of those regions — Tomsk, the Republic of Adygea and Chukotka — had reports of funerals for Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine, The BBC was able to confirm the reports.

It was not until the end of March that authorities in the Kemerovo region officially announced the number of Russian troops killed in Ukraine. During the first investigation into the death toll of the Russian army, the BBC found the names of seven residents of Kuzbass who were killed. Hours after the news, authorities in the Kemerovo region, which had been silent until now, released details about the 13 soldiers killed, without giving their names. Since then, the data has not been updated. At present, the BBC has been able to determine that at least 18 Russian soldiers from the Kemerovo region were killed in Ukraine.

Political scientist Mikhail Vinogradov pointed out: “In the Kemerovo region, the governor’s rhetoric was mostly about victory, and little attention was paid to the topic of war costs.”

“I think that in Dagestan, the authorities invested a little more emotionally, including acknowledging the role played by the people of the republic in military operations. Part of that was a covert competition with the Chechens who were openly in the foreground. In other regions, public announcements Death figures can be seen as hurtful,” the political scientist added.

Vinogradov believes that Moscow has deliberately delegated the responsibility for reporting deaths in the war, still known in Russia as a “special military operation”, to regional heads.

“I think people don’t want the total number of Russian troops killed to cause unnecessary psychological trauma to the public – so they rarely provide figures, even deliberately vague,” the expert said. “On the other hand, the casualty numbers are high, and you don’t want to hide them completely. And, so far, not many people are interested in finding a consistent number. Maybe the governors haven’t been given clear instructions on how to report, how to deal with A certain degree of freedom.”

In some areas of Russia, there were media reports on the deaths of Russian troops, but the reports were later deleted.

A reporter from the Siberia region, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the BBC, “Collecting information on fallen soldiers has not been banned, but as far as I know, all media in the region have been told not to broadcast or publish figures for the time being. There’s also no word on when it will be published. Personally, I don’t think the death figures will ever be published.”

The coffins of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine were not only transported to various regions of Russia, but also to some former Soviet republics.

On March 25, the funeral of Egemberdi Dorboev was held in the Issyk-Kul region of Kyrgyzstan. The mayor of Norilsk said Dolboyev’s body had recently arrived in the Krasnoyarsk Territory and had returned to his mother. The young man holds Russian nationality and will be drafted into the army in the fall of 2021. He was only 19 when he died.

Rustam Zarifulin, 26, was drafted into the army, signed a contract with the Russian army, and was buried in Kyrgyzstan after being killed in Ukraine.

The bodies of two Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine, Saidakbar Saidov and Ramazon Murtazoev, were buried in Tajikistan. Russian sergeant Andrei Bakaev was buried in the capital of South Ossetia, which broke away from Georgia.

Human rights activist Svetlana Gannushkina said, “Earlier, in some post-Soviet independent countries, people were eager to join the Russian army. It was a way to get Russian citizenship through simplified procedures. There is no difference now.”

She noted, however, that the Russian military may still be an attractive employer for some migrants: “For example, Russia and Tajikistan have an agreement on dual citizenship. And those who serve in the Tajik military are also officially recognized in the Serving in the Russian army. This means they can immediately turn into contract soldiers if they want. We have no contact with such people. But as I imagine, for young men of ordinary fate who did not succeed after going to school, joining the army It could be attractive. Also, the authorities have stepped up publicity.”

In Russia, more and more names and funeral photos of the dead are published every day. Usually, these names are announced by Russia’s regional chiefs or local administrations, local media and the schools the soldiers attended while they were alive.

The BBC’s analysis is based only on reports containing specific information on those killed, including names and ranks, and where possible, where they were buried.

For media citing sources saying dozens, if not hundreds, of people were killed, if the report did not include specific information on the names of those killed, we would not take it into account. Neither will the casualty figures of non-Russian military personnel (i.e. service members of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) forces, as well as mercenaries of the “Wagner PMC”) within consideration.