Senator Emma Bonino, are we seriously on the verge of the Second Cold War?
«We are already in it, unfortunately. Begun as a strategic clash between the US and China after Obama’s famous “pivot to Asia”, the Second Cold War has expanded into a systemic challenge that involves the entire West on one side and Russia and China on the other. A situation of opposing blocks that generates bad auspices for the solution of the many global problems to come. I don’t believe in the prospect of a real war. But I am frankly amazed by the growing number of announcements about his imminence coming mainly from the US, a kind of rotation between Biden, Blinken, Sullivan, Austin with the help of Stoltenberg and London. Three days a week the invasion is imminent, one day 50,000 civilian casualties are announced, another million refugees and then air strikes and destruction in Kiev. This for two months. A terrifying communication and so far not very reliable in fact. I hope it stays that way ».
Are there any margins to negotiate?
“Certain. The battleground over Ukraine is all political, and concerns the country’s position within the framework of the continent’s security. It is no mystery that Moscow sees the prospect, albeit remote, of Ukraine joining NATO as smoke and mirrors. Nor is it that the US and NATO do not intend to formally close the door to this prospect. Meanwhile, weapons and soldiers continue to deploy not only at the borders, but also in Ukraine and neighboring NATO countries, which does not help. Someone should call a “time out” on this unrest with no apparent purpose, but the UN and the OSCE are paralyzed by the clash between the United States and Russia ».
Putin’s next moves are inscrutable. Are those of NATO, the United States, Europe too?
“That nobody knows what Putin is up to is a fact. Russia has a very short strategic and military chain of command. Neither Shoigu nor Lavrov have autonomy that goes far beyond implementing and communicating the President’s decisions. However, it seems clear to me what direction Washington has imposed on the Allies: to adopt very harsh sanctions against Russia, in case of invasion but not only; strengthen the military posture on the entire eastern flank of NATO, with successive deployments of men and armaments; contain as far as possible the aggressive attitude of Moscow in the region, avoiding the reproduction of spheres of influence at the regional level. NATO and Europe do not seem capable of organizing a response other than the American one ”.
Are we really at the crossroads of 1939, to die for Kiev or not?
«I don’t think there are similarities with 1939. Today’s is another world, and Russia, however seriously defective in terms of democracy and civil rights, certainly does not have in its DNA any of the genes that produced the Nazi and Fascist dictatorships. As for dying for Kiev, I don’t understand who the candidates would be to send soldiers to that front in case of an invasion. The US and NATO have already ruled out direct military intervention. I suppose that the usual “contractors” and civilians armed and trained from the outside would be sent to die for Kiev. Better not think about it. ”
How does the EU come to this pre-war appointment?
“Unprepared. As always. For decades we have heard repeated that European countries have a duty to take care of the security of the neighborhood, east and south of the external borders: because from there will come the main threats to the stability of the European project. And for as many decades, nothing more has been done than producing strategic documents that are as ambitious as they are empty of content. The latest example is the new “strategic compass”, over which the foreign and defense ministers are currently scrambling. While Ukraine but also Libya, Lebanon and Mali are in total chaos. We need fewer papers and more leadership to find the compass ».
Can the EU still play a third role between Putin and NATO?
“It could, yes. But the pre-requisite is that this role be autonomous, configured in the light of European economic and security interests, not just those of the US. I absolutely do not wish for a strategic equidistance between the US and Russia: almost all EU countries are part of an alliance and a system of common values with American friends. But sometimes we talk clearly between friends to understand each other better. Washington’s hyper-directive attitude in this crisis stifles any European attempt to open a table of political dialogue other than the bilateral US-Russia one. Which is certainly what the US and Russia favor ».
The enlargement to the east – of the EU but also of NATO – couldto be realized differently?
“Repeatedly extending the borders of a defensive Alliance cannot be the only recipe for guaranteeing the security of the continent. It is not useful now to open a debate on the successive enlargements of the EU and NATO. I note that Moscow, beyond the foreseeable lack of enthusiasm, had not shown in the past aggressive attitudes towards EU and NATO accession of most of the countries of the former Warsaw Pact, including the Baltics that were part of the USSR. It is obvious that Ukraine, with a significant part of the Russian-speaking and Russian-speaking population, represents an extremely more complex case as regards further enlargements ».
Is the government of the atlantist Draghi ready for an eventual, albeit unlikely, escalation on the Ukrainian front?
«I have great faith in President Draghi and in his political sense, beyond his Atlanticist faith. I do not see Italy at the forefront of any military escalation; but inevitably the government will be called upon to contribute to an armed containment scheme organized by NATO against Russia ”.