Original title: Video | Merkel’s lowest vote after the war, Sino-German relations or changes?
With the intensifying strategic competition between China and the United States, the policy orientation of Germany, one of the leaders of the European Union, is particularly important. This makes the German general election without Merkel’s participation this year, becoming the focus of attention from all walks of life.
On September 27, local time, the preliminary results of the German general election were announced. The Social Democratic Party won the Bundestag election with a vote rate of nearly 26%, and Merkel’s coalition party ranked second with the lowest post-war vote rate of 24.1%.
It took 171 days for the last German government to form a cabinet. How long will it take this time?
Who will become Merkel’s successor? This is a matter of greater concern to the outside world. According to the election rules of the German Bundestag, voters vote for the supporting party, and the party with the highest number of votes has the priority to form a cabinet. On September 27, the SPD candidate for Chancellor Schultz announced that he has been authorized to form a new German government with the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party, and he is more likely to become the future prime minister.
Because in the German political system, in principle, all parties can start so-called “exploratory talks.” Therefore, the coalition party’s candidate for prime minister, North Rhine-Westphalia Governor Raschelt, also announced that he will strive to form a cabinet dominated by the coalition party. This also means that if the Social Democratic Party fails to “group” successfully, the Coalition Party will also have the opportunity to form a new cabinet with the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party.
Cui Hongjian believes that the difficulty in forming a cabinet does not lie in how conflicting the policies and propositions of the parties are, but in the distribution of power and whether the parties can reach an agreement. Whether they use the Social Democratic Party as the main cabinet or the Alliance Party as the main cabinet, they will have to make more compromises in their interests.
In addition to candidates, time has also become the focus of attention of the outside world. The formation of the cabinet of the previous German government took 171 days, the longest in history. Due to the high probability that the federal government will be governed by a three-party coalition, some outsiders believe that it will take longer. Cui Hongjian believes that both possibilities exist. Since the pattern of this election did not surprise the outside world, all parties will be prepared. At the same time, Germany still has a series of important internal and external agendas to unfold, so it is not ruled out that this time the cabinet formation negotiation will be relatively smooth, and it is optimistically estimated that it may be completed before Christmas this year. This is also conducive to the stable development of German politics.
Is Germany still the “Leader” of the European Union in the “post-Merkel era”?
Although the current Chancellor Merkel did not participate in the election, she will continue to serve as prime minister until the new cabinet is formed. In 16 years in power, Merkel has left a deep mark on German and European politics.
During Merkel’s administration, the German economy can be said to have entered the “golden age”. Statista data shows that during Merkel’s administration, Germany’s per capita GDP increased by 43%, the unemployment rate fell by half to about 5%, the number of bankrupt companies decreased, and the import and export trade surplus advantage and taxation growth trend were maintained, while the national debt also remained at Stable level.
In the field of diplomacy, Merkel advocates multilateralism and opposes conflict and confrontation. With the help of Germany’s rescue plan for Europe during the financial crisis, the euro crisis and the new crown epidemic crisis, Merkel has increased Germany’s influence and voice in the EU to prevent The EU fell further apart. She created a unique image of Germany in the European Union and even on the international stage.
The “post-Merkel era” will inevitably come. Can Germany, which has left Merkel, still maintain its influence?
Cui Hongjian believes that whether the new German government can find a new balance between domestic and foreign affairs is the key to whether Germany can continue its influence in the future. In response to the demands of voters, after the new German government takes office, it will focus its policy on internal affairs for a certain period of time, and the resources invested in foreign policy will be reduced in the short term.
On the other hand, there is currently no leader in German politics that rivals Merkel in terms of personal prestige and ability. This will also have an impact on Germany’s international status in the short term. However, no matter which political parties have successfully formed a cabinet, their policy propositions are “seeking change while maintaining stability”, and no major subversive policy changes will occur.
Candidates for prime ministers of the two major parties: opposed to “decoupling” with China
In the context of the current intensified strategic competition between China and the United States, although the coalition party’s campaign platform defines China as “a partner, but also a competitor and an institutional opponent.” However, the candidates for prime ministers of the two major parties have clearly stated that they oppose and China’s “decoupling” should maintain dialogue with China.
Cui Hongjian believes that China has become Germany’s most important trading partner for five consecutive years, and the two sides have huge economic and trade interests that are interdependent. Of course, Sino-German relations are also facing more and more challenges, especially affected by the external environment. Therefore, in the future, China and Germany will continue to consolidate cooperation and explore new areas in the economic and trade field. At the same time, Sino-German relations will also be subject to some restrictions and influences. For example, when the new government responds to pressure from the United States, it may not be calm during the Merkel era. However, despite short-term fluctuations, in the long run, Sino-German relations still have a solid foundation.
On September 27, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying stated that Chancellor Merkel attaches great importance to the development of relations with China. Germany’s pragmatic cooperation and friendly exchanges in various fields have deepened and become solid. China hopes and expects that the new German government can continue its pragmatic and balanced China policy and consolidate the main tone of Sino-German relations and cooperation.
(Look at news reporter Fang Yuan)
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