PARIS – The British and American intelligence services had already warned their French, Italian and German colleagues about the risk of a war in Ukraine triggered by Vladimir Putin. According to a reconstruction of the newspaper the world last autumn the first warnings about a possible “Russian intervention in Ukraine” arrived from Washington and London.
Much information was exchanged bilaterally between allies, but in mid-November, at the initiative of the White House, an advanced cooperation process was established between the intelligence agencies of the US, UK, France, Germany and Italy. The “Group of Five” met several times to review and evaluate the intelligence gathered. Coming to opposite conclusions. On the one hand – Americans and British – who no longer had doubts about Putin’s intentions. On the other hand – French, German and Italian – who did not want to believe fully.
The British head of the Joint Intelligence Committee, the German head of secret services at the German Chancellery, the French coordinator of French intelligence participated in the narrow discussions about the risk of a war in Ukraine. Italy was represented by the head of the Information Security Department, Elisabetta Belloni.
Ukraine, Macron: “I got Putin’s yes to de-escalation”. But the Kremlin holds back: “No agreement”
by our correspondent Anais Ginori
In December, the United States is increasingly convinced of the scenario that is being prepared in Moscow, with news that is leaked to the US press. In meetings with the allies of the “Group of Five”, the American April Hainesappointed by Joe Biden Director of National Intelligence, she clearly warns her counterparts: the conciliatory statements of the head of the Kremlin are a diversionary tactic. Putin’s goal, Haines continues, is to invade Ukraine.
Europeans do not take the hypothesis seriously. So much so that they do not participate in the US and UK effort to begin preparing the Ukrainian army for war. British forces organize joint military exercises and training missions with Ukraine. The Americans allocate funds and military aid. The Europeans have waited for the offensive to break out to send weapons, but it is likely that preventive support from the US and the UK has proved important in the resistance the Russian army found in the early days of its advance.
Putin and Macron distant in the Kremlin because the French president did not want to take the anti-Covid test in Moscow
by our correspondent Anais Ginori
Even as the White House begins to declassify some intelligence content, including satellite images of Russian troops deployed at the border, some policy makers in Paris and Berlin speak of “alarmism”. Helped in this approach also by the Ukrainian president Zelensky who does not appreciate the constant alerts – now public – coming from Washington.
Until a few days before the invasion Emmanuel Macron e Olaf Scholz they remain convinced that a diplomatic solution is still possible. The French president goes to Moscow, followed by the German chancellor. There is talk of a possible journey of Mario Draghi even if, notes Le Monde, in the meetings of the “Group of Five” the Italians “remained aloof, given their dependence on Russian gas and their interactions with Moscow on the Libyan question”.
In parallel to the information – now certain – of the Americans and the British on the Russian preparations which are intensifying, with the forecast of an attack date (wrong only by a few days), France and Germany are trying to relaunch the discussions of the Normandy format on the Minsk agreements . Macron believes that Putin’s military maneuvers are a way of putting pressure on Western allies to get the most out of separatists in the Donbass and “new security architecture” as part of the NATO presence on the continent. “France wanted to give Putin all possible options to avoid war”, the French diplomats justified themselves in retrospect, responding to those who report a serious error of assessment.
The EU: “Let’s give arms to Ukraine”. Macron’s push behind the European turning point
by our correspondent Anais Ginori
A few hours before Putin’s speech announcing the recognition of the Donbass separatist republics, the French president comes out of a phone call with Putin claiming that the Russian president is ready to talk to Biden. Yet another lie. In light of the debate that took place in the “Group of Five” – between alarmists and prudent ones – it is easy to understand why it is from Paris that the most pessimistic messages arrive today. “The worst is yet to come,” Macron’s advisers explained after the last meeting with the Kremlin.