Growing foreign investments
«The quality of the workforce, the infrastructures, the business-friendly environment have prevailed over the political follies of recent years. Poland has solid foundations that foreign investors consider more important than brawls over the judiciary and the distancing from liberal democracy, “says Slawomir Majman, Deputy Director of the Institute for Security and International Development, and until 2015, big head of the Polish Agency for investments. «Since 2016, Poland has seen constant growth in foreign investment. And in the first quarter of this year – underlines Majman – Poland was the third world destination for greenfield projects after the United States and Spain ».
But until when economic activity will be able to resist the constant conflicts with Brussels over migrants, the freedom of the media, the independence of the judiciary? “The founding values of the European Union project are at stake: violations of the rule of law cannot be admitted,” recalled the president of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, attacking the Polish premier, Mateusz Morawiecki, in the European Parliament. The credibility gained by Poland is also at stake.
EU funds blocked
The European Commission has not yet approved the 60 billion recovery plan presented by Morawiecki’s government and the resources of the European budget, more than 100 billion euros between now and 2027 for Poland, are in some way subordinated to respect for the rule of law. «The rules are very clear. The investments of the recovery plan – von der Leyen told Prime Minister Morawiecki – are associated with reforms that must follow specific recommendations for each country. One of these, for Poland, is the restoration of the independence of the judiciary ».
“The freezing of European funds could have a very negative impact on the Polish economy: they are in fact resources destined to finance investments in the crucial areas of development: digitization, green energy, competitiveness”, says Orlowski. Poland is among the major beneficiaries of European funds: for an amount that over the years has been equal to about 2% of GDP. «More modern cities, railways, highways, agricultural development in the East: these – says Majman – are the immediate effects that we have obtained by making the best use of European funds. There is no reason for Poland to give up these resources ”.
Polexit is no longer just a nightmare
Yet, despite Morawiecki’s clear denials, Polexit, Poland’s exit from the EU, is no longer just a provocation. “Until recently, I thought Polexit was just a nightmare generated by fringe groups of nationalist extremists. Now – says Majman – I fear it may be part of the hidden strategy of the ultra-conservative and populist ruling party. 80% of Poles are in favor of staying in the Union but a relentless anti-European campaign, the hammering of the public media, completely controlled by the government, could change that. Kaczynski could consider leaving the EU as his great political work ».