Home » What do Russian military experts think about Western support for Kyiv and its influence on the course of the war? | Ukraine War | Al Jazeera

What do Russian military experts think about Western support for Kyiv and its influence on the course of the war? | Ukraine War | Al Jazeera

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What do Russian military experts think about Western support for Kyiv and its influence on the course of the war? | Ukraine War | Al Jazeera

Coinciding with the escalation of the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, the Western system blatantly ignored Moscow’s previous warnings and announced that it would provide “effective” military support to Kyiv, pushing the crisis to the most complicated juncture so far. How do Russian military experts evaluate Western support for Kyiv and its Impact on the course of the war?

The hesitation of some European countries to deliver the German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine partly reflects a brinkmanship that has avoided reaching the abyss and has been relatively careful not to tear down all bridges in relations with Moscow.

Since the war with Ukraine began on Feb. 24, Russia has said Western arms supplies to Kyiv have fueled the escalation of the conflict and have been unable to change the situation on the ground.

break the usual

However, if the Western system’s framework for providing military support to Ukraine in the first phase of the war does not go beyond enabling Kyiv to counter the advance of Russian troops, then the new aid package almost touches Moscow’s “sensitive nerve” that Kyiv has received It may even be able to transfer part of the military confrontation to long-range weapons on Russian soil, thereby exploiting Ukraine in a long-term armed confrontation.

It is not ruled out that this is the reason why the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that its air defense forces are conducting exercises in Moscow that simulate repelling possible attacks on military, industrial and civilian installations. This is a measure that has never been taken before, not even in the darkest scenario of Russia’s confrontation with the West after World War II.

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(Al Jazeera)

Military expert Vladislav Shurigin said the European decision may have shaken the belligerent equation, but it did not enable Kyiv to launch attacks inside Russia.

Shurikin explained that the West will continue to send weapons to Ukraine and expand the scope of supply. And he believes any restrictions will be lifted by spring. Kyiv will receive long-range aircraft and missiles and will switch almost entirely from Russian to NATO weapons.

If this is achieved, Russian experts believe, Russia will push the threat line away from its borders by a corresponding distance. At the same time, in the next few months, the pace of progress on the battlefield will be accelerated, and the transition to the decisive battle stage will be further realized by increasing the intensity of “painful” strikes.

“cleaning” the warehouse

However, the “quality” of the weapons shipped to Kyiv has also raised questions among Russian military experts. Some of them even said that a large part of them had been discontinued.

One of them, Leonid Artemyev, said some of the weapons were relatively new models, such as the Stinger missile system, which entered service in the early 1980s as a man-portable air defense system. The weapon was used during the Falkland Islands War between Great Britain and Argentina, and then went through a series of developments.

The Russian military expert went on to say that it is unclear whether the West will provide Kyiv with an old or modern version of this system. Because only modern ones are capable of capturing maneuvering and moving targets in the presence of severe jamming by jamming equipment.

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As for the well-known part of the assistance, it is mainly related to Germany’s decision to provide Ukraine with the Strela 2 portable air defense missile system. The system was produced in the Soviet Union and was in service with the army of the German Democratic Republic. Artemyev said it had been sitting in warehouses for more than 30 or 40 years, so its effectiveness was highly questionable.

He also explained here that the missiles may not be able to fly at all, or they may explode in the launcher. While these missiles were considered a good weapon, it was not stored in a way that could be used later.

The expert concluded that Berlin does not intend to use these missiles, but will dispose of them, for example by sending them to Ukraine. This shows that NATO countries also want to dispose of old and unnecessary weapons and ammunition, including Soviet-made weapons and ammunition, a large part of which is more than half a century old.

(Al Jazeera)

closed airspace

Russian military expert Viktor Litovkin also asked the same question, but this one about the supply of RPG-7 grenade launchers and ammunition to Ukraine from Greece and Slovakia. It is not known how long the weapons were stored, but they likely came to Greece and Slovakia from former arsenals in East Germany.

In an interview with Al Jazeera, Litovkin noted that the logistics of the arms supply would be difficult anyway because Kyiv does not control the country’s airspace. This means that deliveries of these weapons can only be done by truck or rail.

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He went on to point out that Russia controls important parts of Ukraine, so as soon as the weapons in the warehouse are removed from the truck or train, Russia will destroy them all. In a best-case scenario, the weapons would be stored in the Lviv region of western Ukraine, with no possibility of being shipped elsewhere.

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