[Epoch Times September 17, 2021](Reported by Epoch Times reporters Luo Ya and Long Tengyun) On the day of the visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister to South Korea (September 15), North Korea and South Korea launched their missiles. Where will the situation on the Korean peninsula go when China, South Korea and North Korea have their own plans and struggles? Military experts on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have something to say.
Taiwanese military expert: the little brother wants independence, the CCP is embarrassed on all sides
Su Ziyun, director of the Institute of Strategy and Resources at the Taiwan National Defense Security Research Institute, told The Epoch Times that it looks like Beijing is currently in a dilemma on the diplomatic front. “Because North Korea has two goals. One is that it wants to take an independent diplomatic route and launches ballistic missiles mainly against South Korea. The other is actually an indirect statement to Beijing, and it will no longer take Beijing’s attitude as the main object of consideration. .”
Su Ziyun said, “In addition to the fact that the camp of democratic countries has become more and more united, even the younger brother of the CCP, North Korea, has adopted such an independent posture. I think Beijing should rethink its diplomatic and military expansion line.”
He pointed out that in the Biden era, there are important trends in the international community that are quite different from those in the past. “Although former President Trump fired the first shot to boycott and contain the CCP, Biden is now taking this forward.”
Su Ziyun said that there are two important indicators, “One is Japan’s attitude. Japan’s strategic assessment of the CCP is obviously a highly vigilant attitude. Therefore, Tokyo is highly friendly to Taiwan and assumes a posture of a strategic partner. The second important indicator is , On September 15th, the United Kingdom, Australia, and the United States established the new Indo-Pacific alliance AUKUS. The United States and Britain will assist Australia in building nuclear-powered submarines with the aim of resisting the rapid development of the CCP’s nuclear submarines.”
Su Ziyun believes that these two important changes in the international situation, coupled with North Korea’s missile launches during the CCP’s talks with South Korea, indicate that the CCP needs to reassess its war wolf diplomacy and military expansion.
Mainland Military Experts: The CCP’s All-round Combat Secretly Disrupts Jin Sanpang
Yao Cheng, a former lieutenant colonel of the People’s Liberation Army Naval Command, who is well versed in the military sentiments of the Chinese Communist Party, analyzed the meaning behind the North Korean missiles from a military perspective. He believes that North Korea’s changes cannot be ruled out as part of the CCP’s strategic layout in the Taiwan Strait.
Yao Cheng said that from a military strategic point of view, the United States originally thought that its operations in the Western Pacific should be point-to-point, that is, the United States would directly fight the CCP; but now from the CCP’s operational layout, the CCP is deploying full-scale operations. “The CCP will not Point-to-point directly with the United States, so that it does not have an advantage, so it has to spread the entire battlefield.”
He explained, “The United States has come thousands of miles away. Once a war starts, it will definitely be insufficient. Therefore, the CCP will open up multiple battlefields to disperse the U.S. military. This is the CCP’s strategic layout.”
“So in the future Western Pacific War and Indo-Pacific War, the CCP may not only fight one point, it may be a full-scale outbreak. For example, if the CCP wants to fight Taiwan, it may not only act in the Taiwan Strait, but also in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Action, thereby distracting the energy of the US military. Therefore, the situation on the Korean peninsula cannot be ruled out that the CCP secretly instructed Kim San Fat to disrupt the situation.”
Analysis: South Korean military loosening and compressing North Korean missile diplomacy
Regarding South Korea’s submarine-launched missile launch this time, Su Ziyun believes that “symbolizes the achievement of a new milestone in the strategic diplomacy between the United States and South Korea.”
“First of all, it was because South Korea was originally unable to develop such long-range missiles, but after this year’s U.S.-South Korea summit, the United States lifted an agreement on U.S.-South Korea missiles, which is to relax this restriction. In exchange, South Korea agreed to put security in the Taiwan Strait. Joint Statement.”
He added, “Secondly, although the range of the missile launched this time is not large, it is of strategic significance to South Korea. In the past, South Korea had to counter North Korea’s missiles by launching from land, that is, from the south to the north. “But now with this type of submarine-launched missile, South Korea can suppress North Korea on both sides of the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea.”
“The third meaning is that South Korea’s missiles are now unrestricted, and it can achieve a balance that restricts North Korea, which can restrict North Korea’s missile diplomacy and nuclear blackmail.” “For example, South Korea claims that it will not develop nuclear weapons, but it has these missiles. Later, if necessary, South Korea can quickly nuclearize. This is equivalent to warning North Korea that if North Korea does not stop developing nuclear weapons, South Korea can also quickly nuclearize. Because South Korea has been promoting the development of nuclear power plants, it has already indicated that it is preparing for nuclear weapons. the purpose.”
Su Ziyun believes that Japan and Taiwan already have relatively complete missile defense systems, and now South Korea is also rapidly developing its own missiles. This will further reduce the effectiveness of North Korea’s missile diplomacy, so North Korea’s missile diplomacy will have no influence in the future. Observing North Korea’s missile diplomacy has become only symbolic and symbolic to the CCP. So this time North Korea’s missile launch is also aimed at Beijing to some extent. It used to be mainly aimed at the United States and South Korea, but now it may be a turning point. Aiming at Beijing.”
Su Ziyun also believes that after North Korea possesses nuclear weapons, there is no need to cooperate with Beijing to sing double-action, and it is unlikely to cooperate with the political goals of the CCP.
The trend of the situation on the Korean peninsula after North Korea fired another missile
Su Ziyun believes that the key to the situation on the Korean Peninsula lies with the CCP.
He said that to North Korea’s violating the UN ban and launching missiles again, the response of all parties has been traditionally calm.
“Except for the first time that South Korea has possessed a missile, a strategic-level tool, which may be used to deter North Korea, the international community’s posture of containment of the CCP will not change. At the same time, the United States may also be considering that if two regional crises occur, the United States wants How to deal with it. So the large-scale cross-regional exercises launched in August are the United States preparing for this.”
He emphasized, “Since North Korea’s missile diplomacy is becoming less and less impactful, then Beijing is the focus of the problem. Of course, the new Indo-Pacific alliance AUKUS is also the focus of observation.”
He pointed out, “Whether North Korea’s missile launch was directed by Beijing this time, it is not important under the international situation. It is just a small ripple in the historical torrent, because the core of the problem is the CCP, including Europe and the Indo-Pacific countries. The situation of the CCP will not change.”
Su Ziyun believes that whether it is the United States and Europe to promote international projects against the Belt and Road Initiative, or Japan to support the infrastructure construction of Southeast Asian countries, it is the international community’s geopolitical resistance to the CCP and its Belt and Road Initiative.
“That’s why the CCP will go to Solomon and Kiribati on the second island chain to find new footholds and remove these diplomatic countries from Taiwan. Its one belt and one road is to serve military expansion. It will use economic support to obtain ports in these countries. The airport, wait for time to mature before turning it into military use.” “So the EU’s global gateway and other programs are drawing money from the bottom, and the U.S. trade war is also drawing money from the bottom, draining the CCP. Then its One Belt, One Road or geopolitical funding will slowly It will shrink and the CCP’s expansion will be hindered, and of course the CCP will struggle in this process.”
Su Ziyun believes that the CCP’s current struggle is to show off its strength and muscles everywhere, and other small ripples. “I think the general trend will not change. In about three years, the CCP will fall into an obvious structural dilemma in the economy. .”
On September 15th, South Korean President Moon Jae-in met with visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Seoul. The two sides discussed the security and denuclearization of the peninsula.
At noon on September 15, North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles into the eastern waters of the peninsula. South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense stated later that day that less than three hours after North Korea’s missile launch, South Korea successfully tested a new type of submarine-launched ballistic missile. South Korea became the seventh country in the world to successfully test submarine-launched missiles with submarines. North Korea has successfully launched submarine-launched missiles, but it has been carried out by barge. So far, it has not used submarines to launch submarine-launched missiles.
Japan criticized North Korea for launching missiles that threatened regional peace. The CCP did not condemn North Korea, but insisted that it “resolve the problem through dialogue and consultation.” The United States condemned North Korea’s missile launch, saying it violated the UN agreement and posed a threat to the international community.
Editor in charge: Ye Ziming#
.