The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) will officially enter into force on January 1, 2022 in the 6 ASEAN countries and non-ASEAN member countries such as China, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Recently, the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation issued the “RCEP Impact Assessment Report on Regional Economy” (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”), which conducted a comprehensive analysis of the impact of RCEP on regional trade, investment, and economic and industrial development after it took effect.
The “Report” pointed out that, on the whole, after the RCEP takes effect, more than 90% of the goods trade in the region will eventually achieve zero tariffs. This will not only significantly promote the overall economic, trade and investment growth of the region, but also contribute to the growth of global trade and welfare. Play a positive role in promoting.
RCEP is a modern, comprehensive, high-quality, and mutually beneficial free trade agreement. After its entry into force, a higher level of trade and investment opening and a more secure institutional cooperation environment will benefit the member states. The simulation results of the “Report” show that among the RCEP member countries, ASEAN countries have benefited the most from the macroeconomic level. Real GDP, import and export, investment, etc. have all shown substantial growth. China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand have increased their total economic welfare. It is even more significant.
From the perspective of real GDP growth rates, ASEAN countries have benefited the most. Compared with the baseline scenario, by 2035, the cumulative growth rate of ASEAN’s overall GDP will increase by 4.47% due to RCEP. Among them, Cambodia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam have benefited greatly in GDP, with cumulative increases of 7.98%, 7.04%, 6.38%, and 6.33% respectively. It also contributes positively to the real GDP growth of China, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Australia.
The simulation results of the “Report” show that by 2035, RCEP will increase China’s actual GDP, export and import increments by 0.35%, 7.59% and 10.55% respectively from the baseline situation, and the cumulative increase in exports and imports will each reach 315.4 billion US dollars. And 306.8 billion U.S. dollars, economic welfare will increase by 99.6 billion U.S. dollars.
As the world‘s largest free trade agreement, RCEP will have an important impact on regional economic development and industrial chain supply chain structure. After the RCEP takes effect, by lowering trade and investment barriers, improving the level of regional economic integration, and promoting the formation of a unified regional market, it will promote the import and export trade of China’s agriculture, light industry, textiles, automobiles, machinery, electronic information, petrochemicals and other key industries. Growth has brought rare development opportunities for industrial development. However, some industries such as petrochemicals and machinery need to continuously improve their capabilities in the fiercer market competition. Light industry, textiles, electronic information, automotive and other industries also need to cooperate with ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea. Wait for RCEP partners to promote the establishment of a mutually beneficial and win-win regional industrial chain supply chain cooperation system.
Upstream news reporter Guo XinxinReturn to Sohu to see more
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