The International Atomic Energy Agency has warned of shelling at the Russian-controlled Zaporozhye nuclear power plant in Ukraine, saying the current situation poses a huge risk that could lead to a “nuclear catastrophe”.
Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of attacking the plant to create “nuclear terrorism”, while the International Atomic Energy Agency urged “maximum restraint” around the site.
Here’s what we know so far.
Where is the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant located and why is it important?
The Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and one of the top ten in the world, generates half of Ukraine’s nuclear power generation.
The Zaporozhye nuclear power plant has a total capacity of about 6,000 megawatts, enough to power about 4 million households.
The nuclear power plant is located on the Dnieper steppe in southern Ukraine, about 550 kilometers (342 miles) southeast of Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and about 525 kilometers (325 miles) south of Chernobyl, the world‘s largest in 1986. The site of the worst nuclear power plant accident.
Currently, the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant is operated by Ukrainian staff, but Russian troops guard the facility.
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant has six Soviet-designed water-cooled reactors containing uranium-235, each with a net capacity of 950 megawatts, and one megawatt of capacity will be 400 to 900 homes in a year. Provide energy.
The Zaporozhye nuclear power plant is located about 200 kilometers (125 miles) from Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.
On Tuesday, the Ukrainian operator Energoatom said that Russian troops occupying the region were preparing to “connect the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant to the Crimean power grid.”
Michael Black, director of the Centre for Nuclear Engineering at Imperial College London, told Al Jazeera that the main concern was that connecting the plant to the Crimea grid could disrupt off-site power to the reactor, adding that “this power is needed to Cooling the reactors…as long as (those generators) work, then everything is fine.”
“It’s encouraging to see that the Russians want to use nuclear power plants, it really means they don’t want to destroy (the power plants),” said Michael Black.
Ukraine nuclear power plant
The International Atomic Energy Agency has warned that an attack on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, which was seized by Russian troops in March, could trigger a nuclear catastrophe (Al Jazeera)
What does the IAEA say?
IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi described the current situation as “completely out of control” in an interview with The Associated Press last week.
Grossi said the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant “violated every principle of nuclear safety,” adding that “the stakes are high, extremely serious and dangerous.”
Grossi said in an interview that the physical integrity of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant was not respected, the supply chain was disrupted, so it was not certain that the plant was getting everything it needed, adding, “There are a lot of nuclear power plants out there. Materials need to be checked”.
Meanwhile, Grossi said in a statement on Tuesday that he was preparing to brief the UN Security Council on the nuclear safety situation at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant on Thursday, and that he was working to reach a consensus to lead a team of experts to the site as soon as possible.
For months, the International Atomic Energy Agency has tried unsuccessfully to send inspection teams to the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.
Regulators said on Tuesday that Ukraine had notified the International Atomic Energy Agency that it had restored a power line that could be used to supply power to the nuclear plant from a nearby thermal power plant if needed.
“This external power cord is necessary to ensure proper cooling of the facility.”
At the start of the conflict, Grossi outlined the need for safe off-site power supply as one of the seven pillars of nuclear security.
Given the IAEA’s warning, will the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant explode – and if so – what will it be?
According to experts, it is possible, but the likelihood of this happening is uncertain.
Ross Peel, head of research and knowledge transfer at the Centre for Science and Security Studies at King’s College London, told reporters: “The situation we have here is very difficult because of military involvement… If multiple catastrophic factors combine, there is a There could be an explosion.”
Ross Peele added, “It’s hard to say whether this will[occur]and what the consequences might be, and what the consequences would be, depending on how the explosion happened.”
There are fears that shelling around the facility could damage critical infrastructure, including the reactor.
“The reactors[need]to be constantly cooled by the water flowing through[them],” MV Ramana, a professor at the University of British Columbia’s School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera.
Ramana added, “If the water flow is somehow cut off, stopped, stopped, then the reactor could lose its cooling, the fuel would start to melt, it would develop high pressure, and an explosion could occur.”
Experts say we are likely to see widespread evacuations caused by an invisible cloud of radioactivity following the explosion, however, the effects of the radiation leak may be felt for years to come.
“You could see hundreds of thousands of people trying to flee the area,” Ramana told Al Jazeera.
He added, “There will be a cloud, but you can’t see it… We can track the cloud because (we) have sensitive instruments that measure radiation levels.”
Some of the diseases we can see from explosions like this one, could be acute radiation poisoning or cancer that can be seen later.
“So, in Chernobyl, for example, the people who got into the reactor and actually stood on top of the burning building and put out the fire were exposed to a lot of radiation and were affected within hours,” Ross said.
He added, “People with less exposure may still suffer from acute radiation poisoning, which can last from days to weeks, even months, and for people exposed to lower radiation levels, in the next The likelihood of developing cancer will be greater over the next few years to decades.”
What else could happen?
Rather than a reactor core explosion, experts are more concerned with damage to the spent fuel pool and reactor cooling system, which, if cooling fails, could lead to uncontrolled heat build-up, melting, and fires that release and spread from the containment vessel radiation from the structure.
Emily Stotzel, a PhD student in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera, “Our biggest fear is the radiation release, not necessarily an explosion.”
Emily Stotzel added, “As terrifying as this may seem, the radiation release would be catastrophic anyway.”
“It’s unpredictable, we really don’t know where the plume[containing the radioactive material]will go, it can really go anywhere, depending on the weather,” she added.
Given the location of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, radiation releases could hit anywhere on the European continent.
“The Zaporozhye nuclear power plant is located in the middle of the European continent, so no matter what the wind direction, someone will be polluted,” Ramana said.
Overall, experts stress that it is difficult to make any type of forecast at this stage.
“The only thing we can be sure of is that military activity around nuclear power plants poses a risk to it, and it’s hard to predict how that will develop,” Ross said.
If there is a radiation leak, what happens next?
Experts expect an immediate evacuation, but access to medical facilities will be difficult as a surge in patients could be witnessed.
“When a radiation accident happens, there are a lot of people who have symptoms of radiation poisoning out of fear and panic, even if they’re not exposed to radiation,” Stutzel said.
Experts also said that evacuating from a war zone presents a complex set of circumstances.
“A lot of people have left the area, but there are still a lot of people left behind,” Stutzel said.
She added, “So, yes, there’s going to be a lot of people rushing to the hospital and out of the area and that’s going to be a problem … there’s going to be chaos and it’s extremely difficult to evacuate people in the ongoing war.”
According to the expert, the fear of radiation may be more dangerous for many people than the radiation itself.
“We may see an increase in the number of patients because of psychological symptoms associated with knowing that a nearby nuclear power plant may have leaked radiation.”
She added, “So the biggest problem really for the government is at least how to deal with the large number of patients.”
Radiation leakage could lead to a “long-term disaster” in the event of an explosion or fire.
“It’s not something that people come in contact with and immediately fall down and die… In addition to the psychological toll of the war itself, there is a huge psychological toll,” Ramana said.