Xinhua News Agency, Berlin, September 25 (International Observation) Who can take the lead in the “post-Merkel era” as the German general election is imminent
Xinhua News Agency reporter Ren Ke Zhang Yuan
The four-year German Bundestag election will be held on the 26th, and a new German government will be formed based on the results of the election. The current Chancellor Merkel has previously announced that he will not stand for election, and Germany will officially enter the “post-Merkel era” by then.
In the past 16 years, Merkel has made a deep mark on German and EU politics, and her departure means the end of an era. This general election will determine who can become Merkel’s successor and the future direction of Germany and the European Union, thus attracting a high degree of public opinion.
Who will succeed Merkel
Since 2005, Merkel’s coalition party has won the Bundestag election four times in a row, and Merkel has served as prime minister four times in a row. “German Mother”, this is the German nickname for Merkel. In the memory of most young Germans born in the new century, the prime minister has always been the “mother”.
In the past 16 years, Germany and the European Union have experienced many tests, including the international financial crisis, the European debt crisis, the refugee crisis, and the COVID-19 crisis. Although Merkel has worked hard to reduce the negative impact of these crises on Germany and has achieved some results, Germany, which is about to enter the “post-Merkel era”, still faces many major challenges: the new crown epidemic has not yet ended, and the task of prevention and control is still arduous; The traditional German manufacturing industry is facing the urgent task of digital transformation, and the policy of addressing climate change may have an impact on traditional industries; while the influx of immigrants alleviates various problems caused by the aging population, it also has an impact on German society, leading to a political map. Fragmentation, the decline of the influence of traditional big parties, the rise of the Green Party and the right-wing populist party, the German Choice Party.
The election situation in this election is extremely stale. The Coalition Party, which has been leading the polls, has recently been overtaken by its old rival, the Social Democrats, but the Social Democrats only lead by two or three percentage points. It is hard to say who can win the most seats. Since the support rate of the two major parties is only more than 20%, and the Social Democratic Party has previously expressed its unwillingness to jointly govern with the Coalition Party, the future ruling party is likely to be a three-party coalition of one large party and two small parties. This has greatly increased the importance of small parties and brought more uncertainty to the future formation of the cabinet. The addition of more small parties will also affect the policy direction of the new government.
As candidates for prime minister, Raschelt of the Coalition Party and Scholz of the Social Democratic Party are likely to come to power, but they are not strong leaders like Merkel. Many political, economic and social challenges will pose a huge test to the successor.
Who will become the new “talker” of the EU
For the past 16 years, Germany has been playing the role of the “Leader” of the European Union. Paul Liver, the former British ambassador to Germany, wrote in his book “Berlin Law: The European and German Way” that since the European debt crisis, Germany’s dominant position in EU decision-making has continued to increase, and solutions have been proposed during various crises. And to take the lead in implementation, it is also Germany that determines the conditions for the EU and the UK to conduct “Brexit” negotiations.
During the second half of 2020, when Germany assumes the rotating presidency of the European Union, its core role has been further reflected. It was with Germany’s strong promotion and mediation that the leaders of the European Union reached an agreement on a 750 billion euro recovery fund in late July last year.
Some observers believe that after the German election, the European Union will lack a leader with deep qualifications, strong style, and a “solid foundation” in the country for a certain period of time. The EU’s decision-making process may be more difficult, and the “New Europe” countries may have more different voices.
There are also uncertainties in the EU policy of the new German government. Regardless of whether it is the Coalition Party or the Social Democratic Party, as well as the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party that may participate in politics, their EU policies are different. Compromise and coordination within the coalition government will also affect Germany’s leadership in the European Union.
Can Germany persist in multilateralism
After World War II, Germany actively led European integration and participated in globalization, and its export-oriented economy also benefited a lot from this. Merkel adheres to a pragmatic foreign policy based on multilateralism and win-win cooperation, with the starting point of solving practical problems, safeguarding and enhancing Germany’s interests, and trying its best to seek the greatest common divisor of the interests of all parties. Former U.S. President Trump practised unilateralism during his administration, leading to a serious setback in U.S.-Europe relations. Merkel advocated that Germany and the European Union should take their destiny in their own hands.
After the current U.S. President Biden took office, he tightened the alliance system with values as a bond, and U.S.-Europe relations have recovered. Affected by this, the pro-American forces in German politics have gradually moved towards the forefront, and all parties have placed more emphasis on ideology than before. Some observers have analyzed that it is inevitable for Germany to adjust its foreign policy to a certain extent.
Strategic autonomy has always been the goal of Germany and the European Union. In the previous process of withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, European countries have already tasted the bitter fruit of excessive dependence on the United States. Not long after, the United States, Britain and Australia announced the establishment of a new trilateral security partnership. The United States and Britain will support the Australian Navy in establishing a nuclear submarine force. Australia will cooperate with the United States and Britain to build nuclear submarines in Australia. The Australian side immediately announced the suspension of the previous agreement with France to purchase 12 ships. Submarine contract. This prompted European countries to reflect on whether the United States was sincere to rebuild transatlantic relations, and strategic autonomy was again mentioned.
Whether the new German government that emerged after this election can stick to its own propositions, eliminate external interference, enhance the strategic autonomy of Germany and the European Union, and inherit Merkel’s pragmatic foreign policy is also a focus of the international community’s attention to this election.