After decades of maintaining a policy of staying away from military alliances, Finland and its neighbor Sweden announced their application to join NATO in May of that year on the back of Russia’s military campaign against Ukraine last February.
As the Turkish parliament approved Finland’s membership application on the 30th of this month, it became the last country among the 30 NATO members to agree to approve the application. The Finns’ membership is expected to be confirmed in the coming days, while Sweden’s application for membership continues to face opposition.
“We look forward to welcoming Sweden to us as soon as possible,” Finnish President Niinistö tweeted after Turkey’s decision.
Here are 5 points about why the two Nordic countries’ NATO membership applications, and Sweden’s, have been blocked.
Why are these two Nordic countries undergoing a historic shift in policy?
For decades, most Swedes and Finns have supported a policy of military non-alignment that maintains the country.
However, Russia’s military campaign against Ukraine last year triggered a sharp shift in policy between the Nordic countries.
The change is particularly pronounced in Finland, which shares a 1,300-kilometre border with Russia.
According to Agence France-Presse, before applying to join NATO, the country’s public support for joining NATO has been stable at 20% to 30% over the past 20 years, but in a poll conducted in February, Eighty-two percent of respondents approved of the decision to join the military alliance.
Russia’s nuclear weapons (Al Jazeera)
A poll conducted by Sweden in January showed that 63% of Swedes supported joining the military alliance.
During the Cold War, Finland remained neutral in exchange for assurances that Russia would not invade. After the Cold War, Finland remained militarily non-aligned.
Sweden adopted a policy of official neutrality after the Napoleonic Wars in the 19th century, which changed to a policy of military non-alignment after the end of the Cold War.
Why split the membership applications of the Nordic countries?
The two Nordic countries had insisted on joining NATO together and agreed to apply for membership at the same time.
Although the two countries were assured that they would be welcomed with “open arms” by NATO, their applications for membership were quickly met with opposition, mainly from NATO member Turkey.
Applications to join NATO must be approved by all members of the alliance.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan asked the country’s parliament to approve Finland’s membership application in mid-March this year, but delayed the approval of Sweden’s membership application due to a series of disputes.
Similarly, when Hungary approved Finland’s membership application on March 27 this year, it also delayed Sweden’s application for membership until a “later date”.
Hungary also rejected Sweden’s membership, citing criticism of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s policies. However, if Hungary sees Turkey taking action, then it may also approve Sweden’s application.
Meanwhile, Finland has decided to move on, even if it means leaving Sweden behind.
Now that the Finnish parliament has approved the application, all it needs to do now is deposit its “instrument of accession” in Washington to finalize its membership.
What are the problems between Türkiye and Sweden?
Sweden, Finland and Turkey signed a trilateral memorandum of understanding at the NATO summit last June to ensure the start of the Nordic countries’ accession process.
However, Turkey has repeatedly confronted Sweden, claiming that its demands remain outstanding, not least over the process of extradition of Turkish citizens whom Turkey wishes to prosecute on “terrorism” charges.
Turkey has accused Sweden of providing a safe haven for “terrorists”, especially members of the PKK, which Ankara has banned, and the Syrian Democratic Forces, which Ankara believes has ties to the PKK.
Negotiations between the two countries were suspended in early 2023 following protests in Stockholm over the burning of the Koran and the “hanging” of Erdogan’s dolls.
For Sweden, the timetable for accession remains uncertain. Negotiations between Sweden and Türkiye have made little progress.
Neither Turkey nor Sweden has scheduled a parliamentary vote on Sweden’s membership application, but NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said getting Sweden’s application through was a top priority for the alliance.
He has expressed the hope that both Finland and Sweden will become members of the alliance ahead of the alliance summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11-12.