The geopolitical shift in the Middle East comes as Saudi Arabia and Syria are close to reaching an agreement to restore diplomatic ties after negotiations brokered by Russia, according to officials familiar with the matter.
Talks between Saudi Arabia and Syria are continuing after several rounds of talks between Russia and Saudi Arabia in recent weeks, the officials said. A deal, if reached, would be an important step in the reintegration of Syria and its leader, Bashar al-Assad, into the Arab world after a brutal civil war.
Saudi and Syrian officials said negotiators were pushing for a deal ahead of a possible visit to Damascus by Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan after the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr in late April. But the officials cautioned that talks could still break down.
Saudi state television reported late on Thursday, citing a source in the country’s foreign ministry, that Saudi Arabia had begun negotiations with Syria to resume essential consular services to both countries.
Saudi Arabia and Syria severed ties in 2012 over Bashar al-Assad’s crackdown on political protests during the Arab Spring uprisings and various actions in the ensuing civil war. The Saudis helped plan the drive to expel Syria from the Arab League and financed rebel forces that have fought Assad’s forces for years.
Officials in Saudi Arabia, Syria and other concerned Arab countries said the Russian government brokered a tentative deal when Assad visited Moscow last week. Senior Syrian officials have visited Saudi Arabia in recent weeks.
If a formal deal is reached, a vote on Syria’s reintegration and reconstruction into the Arab world will be on the agenda for the next Arab League summit, which is expected to take place in Saudi Arabia in May, according to Arab officials.
A formal deal between Saudi Arabia and Syria, brokered by Russia, would be another high-profile diplomatic move by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The 37-year-old crown prince runs the day-to-day affairs of oil giant Saudi Arabia for his aging father, King Salman. Since the war in Ukraine began, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has recalibrated the kingdom’s relationship with the United States and forged closer ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The United States has long been Saudi Arabia’s protector in the Persian Gulf.
Crown Prince Mohammed had faced years of diplomatic isolation after Saudi agents killed journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul. The U.S. intelligence community believes the operation was ordered by the Saudi royal family. The Saudi government said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was not involved and that the perpetrators had been brought to justice.
Mediation between Saudi Arabia and Syria strengthens Russia’s presence in the Middle East. Putin’s air intervention in Syria’s civil war proved decisive for Assad, and Putin also courted Saudi Arabia, bringing oil-rich Russia to the Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Abbreviation: OPEC) alliance.
For the United States, the agreement is a reminder that while the United States remains the most important military and diplomatic power in the Middle East, its influence in the region is waning.
The United States still has troops in Syria, conducting counterterrorism operations in the southeast and working with Kurdish-led forces in the northeast. But Washington has long signaled it wants to focus more on Russia and China and less on chaos in the Middle East. The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that the United States will send older strike aircraft to the Middle East to replace more advanced fighter jets currently deployed there. This mirrors exactly that shift.
For Assad, a deal with Saudi Arabia would be one of the ultimate proofs of victory in his brutal 11-year civil war. He defeated not only the opposition in this civil war, but also a series of foreign forces, including the United States and Saudi Arabia, who demanded his ouster.
Assad is slowly making a comeback in the region and has used last month’s massive earthquake in northern Syria to push for the normalization of diplomatic ties, visiting Oman and the United Arab Emirates in recent weeks. But he remains spurned in much of the world, with overwhelming evidence that he used chemical weapons against Syrians and ordered the killing of thousands of civilians.