Globalization, an almost undisputed dogma for decades, falls under the blows of everyone’s criticism; even its staunchest supporters have lost their faith. The debate reopens only between those who declare a brain death and those who hypothesize a re-foundation on deeply modified principles.
At the meeting “Globalization and Chinese economy”, held on 2 June at the Trento Festival of Economics, Huang Yiping, professor of economics at the National School of development of the University of Peking, and Giovanni Tria, honorary professor at the Tor Vergata University of Rome and former Minister of Economy.
The event, moderated by Gennaro Sangiuliano, director of Tg2, expresses a substantially shared scenario: Yiping defined the Chinese economy as “in the process of transformation”. The most relevant point is «the greater attention to satisfy Beijing’s domestic demand and then the awareness of a change, a slowdown in growth rates that we have known in the past, in the double digits. Instead, there will be a consolidation of these positions ».
Chinese growth sluggish, under 5% in 2022
The forecasts for 2022 stood at GDP growth close to 5.5%. Now, however, few believe that the goal will be achieved: Yiping believes that in the second half of the year there could be a recovery.
“Inflation does not represent a problem for China, it will instead be the more modest growth that will require a reshaping of the entire functioning of the Chinese economic system”. International value chains will be rewritten on the basis of new geopolitical balances. And anyway, beyond the predominant focus on the domestic market, China will continue to explore new areas. “The“ silk road ”remains an interesting project: Central Asia, of course, but also Africa and Latin America. According to Tria, however, attention must be centered on the coordination of monetary policies between the United States, China and the European Union. The first is the exit from expansionary monetary policies. Then the management of the accumulation of debt, both private and sovereign, and finally the reconstruction of the global production chain. Coordination is needed to face these times and to resolve them. Finally, if the conflict spreads, there could be a closure of the areas in blocks with a strong slowdown in the global economy “.