[The Epoch Times, May 24, 2022](The Epoch Times reporters Ning Haizhong and Luo Ya) US President Biden promised during his visit to Japan on Monday (May 23) that if the CCP attacks Taiwan, the United States will defend Taiwan militarily. The White House later said that U.S. policy had not changed. Yuan Hongbing, a scholar in Australia, believes that Biden’s words are an expression of his true will, but it is too early to say that the US’s Taiwan Strait strategy has changed from vague to clear. He also pointed to the possible timing of the CCP’s conspiracy to take control of Taiwan by force.
When Biden stated on Monday that the United States would use force to protect Taiwan, he also said that the United States‘ policy toward Taiwan “has not changed at all.” The White House later said that U.S. policy had not changed.
Similar situations occurred at least three times in the past year.
Some Western observers believe that this time, no matter how the White House “corrects” Biden’s claims, the U.S. “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan can be seen as over. Some analysts also believe that this is a “useful slip of the tongue”.
However, Yuan Hongbing, a scholar in Australia, told The Epoch Times on May 24 that it could not be Biden’s slip of the tongue. “This sentence must be an expression of his (Biden’s) true will right now.”
He believes that Biden’s remarks are partly due to the lessons of the Russian-Ukrainian war, “This lesson is: in the face of dictatorships, only by showing a firm will to fight the aggressor to the death can it be possible to prevent the outbreak of war. One of the reasons for this statement at the time node.”
Before the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States first withdrew the embassy from Kyiv, and asked American citizens not to go to Ukraine any more. Those who were already in Ukraine should quickly withdraw. The U.S. and U.S.-led NATO announced that the U.S. military and NATO would not enter Ukraine to fight Russia before Russia invaded Ukraine.
“Their show of weakness did not bring peace from Russia, but instead contributed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” Yuan Hongbing said.
“Another reason is that the aggressiveness of the CCP is becoming more and more clear in the political consciousness of American society. Biden, for his own and his party’s electoral political interests, also has to show toughness against the CCP.”
Yuan Hongbing said that previous US administrations have always adopted the so-called strategic ambiguous strategy on the Taiwan issue. That is, if the CCP invades Taiwan by force, will the United States directly send troops to defend Taiwan? It has always been strategically vague on this issue. Some U.S. politicians say this strategic ambiguity is conducive to maintaining stability across the Taiwan Strait. But this statement itself is wrong. The so-called strategically ambiguous attitude of the United States is actually a form of national opportunism, which is to leave sufficient leeway for itself on the Taiwan Strait issue.
“When the CCP invades Taiwan by force, they will decide whether or not to directly send troops to defend Taiwan based on the situation at the time. So this is a long-term national speculation.”
Yuan Hongbing believes that Biden’s latest statement is somewhat uncertain, because it is not expressed in the form of a formal national document or a national statement.
“It’s too early to say that the US’s strategy across the Taiwan Strait has moved from a vague strategy in the past to a clear strategy,” he said.
Why won’t Xi Jinping attack Taiwan before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China?
“China expresses strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to these remarks (Biden’s),” Wang Wenbin, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, responded on Monday. “The Taiwan issue is purely China’s internal affairs, and no external forces are allowed to interfere.”
Wang Wenbin claimed that China must take firm actions to safeguard its own sovereignty and security interests, and “do what it says”, “China has no room for compromise.”
Beijing has always insisted that Taiwan is a province to be reunified by China, and will use force to achieve “unification” if necessary.
It is worth noting that US State Department spokesman Ned Price tweeted on May 20 to refute the remarks of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He wrote: “China continues to publicly distort US policy. The US does not agree with the Chinese people. The Republic’s ‘one China principle’.”
Yuan Hongbing believes that Wang Wenbin’s rhetoric is to be strong on the outside and dry on the inside, and strict on the inside. Biden’s latest statement caught the CCP by surprise. The CCP’s verbal expressions seem to be very strong, but in fact, it is completely unclear what it is to resolutely oppose and what methods are used. They have also begun to engage in strategic ambiguity on this issue.
He believes that the main reason for the CCP’s ambiguous response is that before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it does not want to launch a war to invade Taiwan by force. Xi Jinping must first solve the problem of his lifelong rule.
Yuan Hongbing said that many people say that Xi Jinping wants to solve the problem of re-election at the 20th National Congress, but in fact Xi Jinping wants to solve the problem of whether he can govern for life. Once he is re-elected, it means that his political road to life in power begins. If he is not re-elected, his life in power will be in vain. Therefore, before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the CCP will not invade Taiwan by force, and it will not dare to make any substantive and strategically clear so-called “resolute opposition” to such statements by the United States.
May choose this time for the CCP to invade Taiwan by force?
Yuan Hongbing said that once Xi Jinping achieves his political goal of being in power for life at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it will be very close to the time when the CCP invades Taiwan by force.
He said that Xi Jinping’s first step is to resolve the lifelong rule, and then to resolve the Taiwan issue. And Xi Jinping’s think tank gave him the time node for launching the Taiwan Strait War, which is after the Taiwan election in 2024 (January) and before the US election in 2024 (November).
“Why did you choose this time point? Because the public opinion of the entire Taiwanese society is now full of unprecedented disgust and even hatred for the CCP’s tyranny. This is because the CCP destroyed the last remaining freedoms in Hong Kong. And this time Shanghai closed the city. , once again exposed the brutal nature of the CCP to the whole world. Therefore, Taiwanese people will never accept being ‘unified’ by the CCP. Under such a social opinion, it is foreseeable that Taiwan’s general election will be held in 2024. A leader with a tougher stance on the CCP’s tyranny is bound to be elected.
“In other words, only politicians who have a tougher attitude of opposition and resistance to the CCP’s tyranny can be elected as new leaders by the people of Taiwan.”
As for why Xi Jinping put the time point of invading Taiwan by force after the Taiwan election in 2024, Yuan Hongbing said: “He (Xi) wants to take advantage of this time point when the new leader has no real and comprehensive dominant power. “
“Before the U.S. election, the reason is that there is a judgment within the CCP that Biden is likely to lose in the 2024 U.S. election. The Republican Party and even Trump are very likely to come back.” Yuan Hongbing believes that the CCP must be in the national will of the United States. While still in the hands of the weak Biden, he launched an armed attack on Taiwan.
Yuan Hongbing said that although the White House clarified that US policy has not changed, Biden’s statement on the Taiwan Strait issue this time will definitely impact the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. He said that Xi Jinping is currently in trouble both at home and abroad, but the more he faces a crisis, the more likely he will go to the dark side. This is determined by Xi Jinping’s personality.
“Just as he did this dynamic clearing of epidemic prevention, the entire Chinese economy was hit hard. He still insists that the so-called dynamic clearing must be done to this day.”
Yuan Hongbing also analyzed in an exclusive interview with The Epoch Times on February 3 this year that fighting in the Taiwan Strait is inevitable. The time node for the war in the Taiwan Strait should be around 2024. The fundamental reason is that the CCP is already on the verge of a comprehensive socio-economic and political crisis, both domestically and abroad, and thus attempts to find a way out for the CCP, which has fallen into a desperate situation, by launching the Taiwan Strait campaign.
However, Yuan Hongbing also pointed out that once the CCP invades Taiwan, the international alliance will have sufficient time to respond under the courageous resistance of the Taiwanese people. Once the war has entered the white-hot stage, all kinds of contradictions within the CCP system will break out. Disaster caused by Xiao Qiang has become a high-probability event. Therefore, the result of Xi Jinping’s launch of the Taiwan Strait battle is very likely to be the last battle between mankind and communism.
Responsible editor: Sun Yun