[Epoch Times, October 04, 2022]Just before Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly announced the annexation of the four Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, Putin issued a nuclear threat to NATO, saying that if Russian territory is threatened, he will use all means to fight back, This is by no means intimidating. When explaining Putin’s speech, Medvedev, vice-chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council, made it clear that the Russian army will use any weapon, including strategic nuclear weapons, when protecting the newly joined Russia’s territory.
This is another nuclear threat from Russia since the Russian-Ukrainian war. The last time was shortly after the outbreak of the war, after Putin said on February 27 that a series of sanctions against Russian banks, high-level officials, high-tech, etc. imposed by the United States and Europe were “illegal”, he ordered the Minister of Defense and the Chief of General Staff to The Russian Army’s deterrent forces are placed on combat alert. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the deterrent “is designed to deter aggression against Russia and its allies and defeat the aggressor, including in a war using nuclear weapons.”
Russia’s nuclear threat clearly reflects its defeat on the conventional weapons battlefield. The latest battle situation is that Lehman, an important transportation hub and military strategic location in the Donbas region, was recaptured by the Ukrainian army on October 1, and the Russian army hurriedly evacuated. According to the current style of the Ukrainian army, coupled with the support of the United States and Europe, the Russian army has been unable to recover on the battlefield. At this time, it was a dilemma for Russia, because the nuclear threat issued obviously did not work, nor did it stop the Ukrainian army’s advance and the support of the United States and Europe. Wouldn’t it be a shame if it didn’t use nuclear weapons?
Judging by normal thinking, nuclear weapons must never be used, because everyone knows the consequences. In a nuclear war, no one side wins. In short, if Russia and NATO both throw nuclear bombs on each other, causing huge casualties and serious pollution to the environment, even if the war is won, the future will not be easy. That’s why no one in today’s world dares to use nuclear weapons lightly.
But war can also drive people crazy. DW reports, citing experts, that if these threats do escalate into reality, smaller tactical nuclear weapons, such as the short-range Iskander ballistic missile, could be used.
In the face of Putin’s two nuclear threats, the United States issued a warning to Moscow on the one hand, and at the same time strengthened the monitoring of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. White House national security adviser Sullivan said recently that Putin’s threat is “a deadly issue that we must take seriously.” He revealed that the Biden administration “privately communicated directly to the Kremlin about nuclear weapons, any use of nuclear weapons would have disastrous consequences for Russia, the United States and our allies will respond decisively, and we have made it clear and specific. what this will mean.”
As early as 2020, U.S. Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Trachtenberg said in a speech that the U.S. Department of Defense has taken action to demonstrate commitment to allies and partners by strengthening nuclear deterrence, such as the 2020 defense budget application There is $25 billion to modernize the nuclear triad, share nuclear strategy and nuclear deployment capabilities with NATO partners, and advance U.S. nuclear weapons to Europe.
Five current and former U.S. officials, including a source in the Biden administration with knowledge of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, said the U.S. is increasingly monitoring any potential Russian moves, according to Politico. The U.S. government is using its superiority in air, space and cyberspace to track Russian military communications or operations.
Deutsche Welle recently reported that the preparations for a nuclear attack would be obvious, citing Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva. That is, any unusual activity at the 47 nuclear storage sites under constant surveillance by intelligence and military surveillance satellites of the United States and other countries will be monitored. Because non-strategic or tactical nuclear weapons are lying in storage. Mark Cancian, who worked on nuclear weapons in the U.S. defense and energy departments, also believes that “the United States can understand every move in Russia’s nuclear strike preparations”, “The Russians will never be sure that their actions will not be detected. … it’s going to be a gamble.”
So far, the United States and NATO have not found unusual activity in Russia’s nuclear arsenal, which means that Putin’s threats remain rhetorical for the time being.
On the other hand, the United States demands that China and India, which are friendly with Russia, prevent Putin from using nuclear weapons. On September 29, the U.S. Political News website quoted U.S. officials as saying that the U.S. is pressuring Russia’s allies in the Indo-Pacific region to persuade Russia to “never use nuclear weapons,” including China and India.
Why can’t the CCP stay out of it? There are two reasons. One is the commitment to Ukraine. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Ukraine once became the third largest country with nuclear weapons due to the large amount of weapons left by the Soviet Union in Ukraine. On December 5, 1994, the United States, Russia and the United Kingdom signed a diplomatic document known as the “Budapest Security Memorandum” at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe meeting held in Budapest, Hungary, respectively, with Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom pledged to respect Ukraine’s independence within its existing borders in return for Ukraine’s (or Belarus, or Kazakhstan’s) accession to the NPT and completion of the transfer of its nuclear arsenal to Russia, the memo said. and sovereignty; refrain from any threat or use of force against Ukraine; refrain from using economic pressure on Ukraine to influence its policies; seek UN Security Council approval if nuclear weapons are used against Ukraine; do not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
On December 4, 2009, the date of the expiration of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), the United States and Russia issued a joint statement reaffirming the Budapest Security Assurance Memorandum signed with Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The security guarantee will remain in effect after this date.
At the end of 2013, during Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s visit to China, he signed a friendship treaty with then-President Xi Jinping. Article 2 of the treaty clearly stated that China highly values Ukraine’s unilateral abandonment of nuclear weapons, and that the Ukrainian side has unilaterally renounced nuclear weapons in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 984. and December 4, 1994, the Chinese government’s statement on providing security assurances to Ukraine, promising to unconditionally not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine as a non-nuclear-weapon state, and to be invaded by the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine or threatened by such aggression. Provide appropriate security guarantees to Ukraine if applicable. According to reports, Ukraine is the only country that China has promised to provide it with nuclear security assurances. Therefore, for the sake of this commitment, the CCP cannot stay out of the way, and must try its best to ensure that Ukraine is not attacked by nuclear weapons.
Another reason is that China and Russia are all-weather strategic assistance partners. Beijing once promised “unlimited cooperation”, and Russia, which is currently stuck in political, economic, military, technological difficulties due to sanctions, urgently needs all kinds of support and assistance from Beijing. If Moscow uses nuclear weapons, Putin also needs to weigh it.
In the author’s opinion, if Putin uses nuclear weapons, it can only speed up the end of the war and the end of the betrayal, because no one in the world will allow such a thing to happen, including Russian politicians and people. For Beijing, it would face an even more embarrassing situation if Moscow insisted on using nuclear weapons. If he wants to support Russia again, he will definitely be sanctioned by the West, and joining the camp of Western sanctions and fulfilling his commitment to Ukraine means losing Russia as a “good partner”, and he is even more lonely and desolate.
So, what is the probability that Putin, who has issued nuclear threats twice, will drop a nuclear bomb? The author believes that as long as you still have normal thinking, you will not be so self-defeating.
Responsible editor: Pu Shan