Home » Inflation Italy: substantial deceleration unlikely before Q2 2022 (analysts)

Inflation Italy: substantial deceleration unlikely before Q2 2022 (analysts)

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New acceleration of Italian inflation which reached 3.9% in December 2021. Once again, it was energy prices that drove up the inflationary pressures. Paolo Pizzoli, Senior Economist of Ing, points out how the lagged effects of these mean that we should not expect to see a deceleration in primary inflation before the second quarter of this year and, even then, the decline could be slowed by the partial passage of the PPI pressures accumulated in the artifacts, now at their highest in decades. “In this inflationary context – continues Pizzoli – wage dynamics represent a noteworthy exception. In November wage inflation remained stable at 0.6%, the same level as at the beginning of 2021. We continue to believe that the persistent slowdown in the labor market will continue to prevent long-lasting and widespread second-impact effects. Efforts to increase the abnormally low Italian female participation rate, envisaged under the PNRR, should also work in this direction, favoring employment over wage levels “.

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