The National Bureau of Statistics will announce July macroeconomic data in the near future. The agency predicts that on the production side, industrial production will maintain a certain degree of prosperity in July. On the demand side, consumption continues to recover, investment is divided, manufacturing investment remains strong, real estate continues to weaken, and infrastructure is expected to rebound.
In terms of production,Zheshang SecuritiesChief economist Li Chao believes that overall industrial production continued to be prosperous in July, but the marginal slowing trend continued.Expected JulyIndustrial added valueThe year-on-year growth rate was 7.8%, compared with the compound growth rate of 6.3% in the past two years in 2019.
Data show that the country’s high electricity consumption in July, in addition to some summer heat factors, also reflects the relatively strong industrial production. On July 14, the national daily electricity consumption set a new historical record. The East China and Central China regional power grids and 11 provincial-level power grids including Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang hit a record high. On July 15, the daily consumption of the six coastal power plants hit the highest level in history.
In terms of consumption, Li Chao believes that consumption will continue to recover. Although the recent extreme weather will have a certain impact on the consumption of residents in the severely affected provinces, due to the short duration of the disaster and the rapid reconstruction of the consumption scene after the disaster, the overall impact on consumption is relatively limited.
Assistant to the Director and Chief Macro of Huachuang Securities Research InstituteAnalystZhang Yu said that under the restoration of the quota, it will continue to rise. It is expected that the zero growth rate in July will be 11.9%, and the two-year average growth rate will be 5.2%. She pointed out that there was an epidemic in some areas in July, but this may not be the core factor affecting current consumption. Whether current consumption can continue to be repaired needs to be concerned about whether it can be repaired continuously below the limit. The reason why the company’s zero growth rate increased faster than expected in June was precisely from the upward trend below the limit. Repairs below the current limit have not yet ended.
Some investment institutions believe that manufacturing investment remains strong, real estate continues to weaken, and infrastructure may rebound.
“The current manufacturing investment growth rate is stronger than that of real estate and infrastructure, and it is still sustainable in the short term. However, the manufacturing investment growth rate may see marginal downward pressure. In terms of industry structure, high-tech manufacturing investment is expected to perform best. The main support for manufacturing investment.” Li Chao said.
China Merchants BankTan Zhuo, director of the Institute of Macroeconomics of the Academy, said that with the steady recovery of the economy, the continued growth of profits, and the high utilization rate of production capacity, the expansion of reproduction and transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry are expected to drive investment upward.
(Source: Economic Information Daily)
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