Home » Macro Strategy Daily: U.S. July CPI was flat at the previous value, inflation concerns eased slightly

Macro Strategy Daily: U.S. July CPI was flat at the previous value, inflation concerns eased slightly

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Investment points:

U.S. JulyCPI It was unchanged from the previous value, and inflation concerns eased slightly. In July 2021, the U.S. CPI was 5.4% year-on-year, which was the same as the previous value. This postponed the continuous upward momentum since March of this year. The month-on-month ratio was 0.5% and the previous value was 0.9%, the lowest since February this year. Core CPI in July was 4.3% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.In terms of sub-items, energy was 23.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, which may be different from the originalOil priceThe recent slowdown in growth is related to the slowdown; the growth rate of service consumption in entertainment, other goods and services, information technology hardware and services has continued to expand. It was 5.7% year-on-year, an increase of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, and 1.8% month-on-month, still maintaining a high level. The price increase of automobiles was still relatively large due to the lack of cores. In general, although the US CPI temporarily slowed its rise in July and inflation concerns eased slightly, it may still remain high in the short term, and there is still overall pressure.

Increase in financing balance. On August 11, the balance of A-share financing was 1,685,699 million yuan, a month-on-month increase of 7.217 billion yuan;Margin tradingThe balance was 1,850.214 billion yuan, an increase of 7.531 billion yuan from the previous month. The financing balance minus the securities lending balance was 152.1184 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 6.903 billion yuan.

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Land stock trading net outflow,Hong Kong Stock ConnectNet outflow. On August 12, Land Stock Connect had a net purchase transaction of 178 million yuan on that day, of which a purchase transaction was 59.731 billion yuan, a sale transaction was 59.910 billion yuan, and the cumulative net purchase transaction was 1.449.435 billion yuan. On the day of Southbound Trading, the net buying turnover was -101 million Hong Kong dollars, of which the buying turnover was 17.577 billion Hong Kong dollars, the selling turnover was 17.678 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the cumulative net buying turnover was 2.147819 billion Hong Kong dollars.

  currencymarketinterest rateMost fell. August 12,Shanghai BankInter-bank demolitioninterest rateSHIBOR overnight interest rate was 1.9400%, down 9.20BP, SHIBOR was 2.1500% for the week, up 0.30BP.

Depository institutionsPledgeModeRepurchaseThe weighted interest rate was 1.9447% overnight, down 7.97BP, and 2.1196% in the week, down 0.58BP. The 10-year yield to maturity of ChinaBond Treasury bonds was 2.8566%, down 2.75BP.

US stocks rose, while European stocks were mixed. On August 12, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 35,499.85 points, an increase of 0.04%; the S&P 500 index closed at 4,460.83 points, an increase of 0.30%;NasdaqThe index closed at 14,816.26 points, up 0.35%. In European stock markets, the French CAC index closed at 6882.47 points, an increase of 0.36%; the German DAX index closed at 15937.51 points, an increase of 0.70%; the British FTSE 100 index closed at 7193.23 points, a decrease of 0.37%. In the Asia-Pacific market, the Nikkei Index closed at 2,8015.02 points, down 0.20%; the Hang Seng Index closed at 26517.82 points, down 0.53%.

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The dollar index rose. On August 12, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.11% to 93.0176. The euro fell 0.09% against the dollar to 1.1729. The dollar rose 0.00% against the yen to 110.4450. The pound fell 0.41% against the dollar to 1.3808. The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.4771, an appreciation of 0.15%.

The spot exchange rate of offshore renminbi against the U.S. dollar closed at 6.4772, a depreciation of 0.02%. The central parity of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.4754, an appreciation of 0.12%.

Gold rose, crude oil fell, and London copper fell. On August 12, COMEX gold futures rose 0.07% to close at $1,754.20 per ounce. WTI crude oil futures fell 0.65% to close at US$68.91 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures fell 0.66% to close at $71.15 per barrel. COMEX copper futures fell 0.09% to close at $4.3625/lb. LME copper 3-month futures fell 0.73% to close at US$9,466/ton.

(Source: Donghai Securities)

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