Prospect analysis of the Iran nuclear agreement
Recently, the parties involved in the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue are holding the seventh round of talks in Vienna, Austria. Experts pointed out that the resumption of the Vienna talks itself sent a positive signal, indicating that all parties still have the willingness to talk. However, given the huge differences between the United States and Iran, the prospects of the Iranian nuclear agreement still face many uncertainties.
The talks were twists and turns
The current round of talks on the Iranian nuclear agreement has experienced twists and turns since its launch on November 29. The parties showed optimism at the beginning of the negotiations. According to Iran’s National Television, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister and Chief Negotiator on the Iranian Nuclear Issue, Bagheri, once introduced that the first day of talks was “constructive and useful.” As the negotiations proceeded, the contradictions between Iran and the United States and Europe became prominent, and they fell into mutual accusations. The meeting was adjourned on December 3 and continued on the 9th, but the tension was still difficult to eliminate.
According to the news agency of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Bagheri reiterated on December 12 that the most important condition for the United States to return to the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue is to lift the illegal sanctions against Iran. On the same day, at the G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Liverpool, England, the British Foreign Secretary and the German Foreign Minister severely criticized Iran’s attitude in the negotiations. According to a report by Agence France-Presse on December 14, US Secretary of State Blincoln is preparing an “alternative plan” with allies to prevent the failure of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement.
Public opinion is generally worried that negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement will go the same way again. The Iran nuclear agreement has been challenged since its conclusion in 2015. In May 2018, the U.S. government unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement, and subsequently restarted and added a series of sanctions against Iran, putting the Iran nuclear agreement into a dilemma. After the US Biden administration came to power, it has repeatedly expressed its willingness to “return” to the Iran nuclear agreement. From April to June this year, the parties involved in the Iranian nuclear agreement held six rounds of talks in Vienna, but no substantive results were achieved.
U.S. and Iran diverge
During the adjournment of the seventh round of talks on the Iranian nuclear agreement, the United States once again waved a big stick of sanctions against Iran. On December 7, the U.S. Treasury Department announced that it would include eight Iranian individuals and four entities on the sanctions list of the Office of Overseas Assets Control. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Khatibzad responded on social media that night, stating that the United States failed to understand that extreme pressure and diplomatic breakthroughs are contradictory. The US’s escalation of sanctions will not create more bargaining chips for negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue, nor is it a serious attitude or a gesture of good faith.
According to reports from the New York Times and other US media, the US government is considering signing an interim agreement with Iran, aiming to lift a limited number of sanctions in exchange for Iran to stop some of its nuclear activities and buy time for follow-up negotiations. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the negotiations will not reach a so-called “temporary agreement”, nor will it return to the Iran nuclear agreement in a “step-by-step” manner.
“The core of the Vienna talks is the issue of the United States and Iran’s resumption of compliance.” Yu Guoqing, a researcher at the Institute of West Asia and Africa of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told this newspaper that from the current situation of the talks, Iran firmly requires the United States and EU countries to lift sanctions against Iran, while the United States requires Iran. Continue to implement the provisions of the Iran nuclear agreement and restrict or freeze related nuclear research and development activities. When the United States proposes a new agreement, restrictions on Iran’s missile technology and regional activities need to be added, which is unacceptable to Iran. Iran opposes the United States to cram new issues into the negotiations, believing that the purpose of the negotiations is to restore the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, not to draft a new agreement.
Mei should show sincerity
Analysts pointed out that the United States has backtracked on the Iranian nuclear issue, resulting in Iran’s lack of basic trust in the United States. Yu Guoqing believes that “the person who needs to tie the bell to untie the bell”. The United States unilaterally announced its “retirement”, which severely undermined the Iranian nuclear agreement. The United States should also take the lead to lift the illegal unilateral sanctions against Iran and regain the trust of the international community through practical actions. Iran should resume fulfilling its nuclear commitments on this basis.
UN Secretary-General Guterres recently called on Middle Eastern countries to work together to make the vision of a Middle East region free of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction a reality. Regarding the Iran nuclear agreement, he said that the resumption of dialogue is an important step and all parties must ensure that this valuable tool remains effective.
“The Iran nuclear agreement is an important part of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime. The parties concerned resume implementation as soon as possible, which will help prevent the proliferation of nuclear technology to the Middle East, limit the nuclear competition of regional countries, maintain the overall stability of the regional situation, and improve Iran and the Gulf Arabia. National tensions.” Yu Guoqing said, “Even if this round of talks fails to achieve the set goals for the time being, as long as all parties are willing to maintain a positive attitude of dialogue and continue to set up the next step of the talks procedures, the prospects of the Iranian nuclear agreement are still worth looking forward to.”
Article source: People’s Daily Overseas Edition
Editor in charge: Huang Yang
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