(Original title: 2022 Automobile Industry Transcript Released: Strong Rise of Self-owned Brands of New Energy Vehicles with Bright Exports)
On January 12, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released data that my country’s auto production and sales in 2022 will be 27.021 million and 26.864 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 2.1% respectively. The performance of the new energy vehicle market is particularly impressive. The self-owned brands represented by BYD have risen strongly. Through the parallelization of hybrid and pure circuit lines, the sales volume of new energy vehicles ranks first in the world. At the same time, in 2022, my country’s auto exports will exceed 3 million, surpassing Germany, becoming the world‘s second largest auto exporter, and the export of new energy vehicles will double year-on-year.
Industry insiders said that in 2022, driven by consumption-promoting policies such as halving the purchase tax, superimposed new energy vehicles will continue to maintain rapid growth, and automobile exports will maintain a good momentum, contributing an important force to the growth of sales in the automobile industry. In 2023, my country’s auto market will continue to show a steady and positive development trend, and the year-on-year growth rate of production and sales is expected to be around 3%.
Both production and sales are booming
With the optimization and adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control policy, the policy of halving the purchase tax of fuel vehicles and the national subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will be withdrawn at the end of 2022, and the discounts for auto manufacturers will increase. The “tail lift phenomenon” is obvious.
The data shows that in December 2022, my country’s automobile production and sales will reach 2.383 million and 2.556 million respectively, with production down 0.3% month-on-month, sales up 9.7% month-on-month, and production and sales down 18.2% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively. In 2022, my country’s automobile production and sales will complete 27.021 million and 26.864 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 2.1% respectively.
In December 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will continue to maintain rapid growth, reaching 795,000 and 814,000 respectively, an average increase of 51.8% year-on-year, and a market share of 31.8%, a record high. In 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 7.058 million and 6.887 million, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 96.9% and 93.4%, and the market share will reach 25.6%.
The concentration of my country’s auto industry has further increased. In 2022, the top ten enterprises (groups) in terms of auto sales in the country will sell a total of 23.148 million new cars, accounting for 86.2% of the country’s total auto sales. Among the top ten auto sales companies in the country, compared with the same period in 2021, BYD’s sales growth rate is the most obvious. Chery Automobile and GAC Group also showed double-digit rapid growth, and Geely Holdings and Changan Automobile increased slightly.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that in the first quarter of 2023, the automotive terminal consumer market will be under greater pressure, and sales may decline significantly. In order to further stimulate the consumption vitality of market entities, the association calls on the government to continue to introduce policies to promote automobile consumption, such as halving the purchase tax, to help the automobile industry grow steadily.
CICC believes that in 2023, consumer demand for automobiles may rise before falling. In the era of major changes in which electric intelligence is accelerating, the growth rate of new energy vehicles is slowing down, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The optimization of policies will help the recovery of purchasing power, the terminal demand on a low base is expected to gradually return to positive growth, and the high growth of the export market is expected to boost wholesale sales.
The Rise of Independent Brands
In 2022, self-owned brands will continue to make efforts in the field of new energy vehicles. Compared with Tesla and other new car-making forces that insist on the pure electric route, self-owned brand new energy vehicle companies have more diversified strategies and relatively complex technologies, opening up a broader consumer market.
BYD mainly promotes pure electric and plug-in hybrid (referred to as “plug-in hybrid”) routes, and has achieved good sales in both fields. The data shows that in 2022, BYD’s passenger car sales will reach 1.8624 million, a year-on-year increase of 155.1%, making it the world‘s new energy vehicle sales champion. Among them, the sales volume of DM models (plug-in hybrid models) was about 946,200, slightly higher than the 911,100 EV models (that is, pure electric models).
Shenang Securities predicts that in 2023, BYD’s pure electric and hybrid models will continue to go hand in hand, and the overall sales volume is expected to exceed 3.5 million. The scale effect will be further strengthened, and production costs and expenses will be diluted. At the same time, in response to the withdrawal of new energy vehicle subsidies in 2023 and the increase in the price of battery raw materials, BYD announced a price increase, and its profitability is expected to continue to improve.
Taking advantage of plug-in hybrid power to accelerate the transformation of new energy sources is the short-term strategic focus of Great Wall Motors. Great Wall Motor has a total of 10 plug-in hybrid models, the price of which is concentrated in the market of 100,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan, of which the Mocha DHT-PHEV is positioned at the high-end market of around 300,000 yuan. As the largest vehicle segment under Great Wall Motors, the Haval brand announced in August 2022 that it will transform into a “new energy SUV expert”, and released a new new energy development strategy, brand identity and brand positioning.
In the field of fuel cells, Geely Holding Group, as the earliest automobile company in China to carry out the research and development of methanol vehicles and realize the industrialization, has formed more than 200 patents, developed more than 20 models of methanol fuel vehicles, and has a cumulative mileage of nearly 10 billion kilometers, becoming the first in the world to realize An OEM for the mass production of methanol vehicles.
Weishi Energy, a subsidiary of Great Wall Motors, recently completed its B-round financing of 555 million yuan. Weishi Energy has been deeply involved in hydrogen energy and fuel cell key technologies, research and development and manufacturing of core products and components, and has independently tackled a number of products and promoted their commercialization, such as high-power fuel cell systems, stacks, membrane electrodes, 70MPa system, hydrogen storage bottle, bottle valve and pressure reducing valve, etc.
Dongguan Securities stated that looking forward to 2023, the global sales of new energy vehicles will achieve rapid growth, the first-mover advantage of the self-owned brand new energy vehicle industry chain will be highlighted, and the global competitiveness will be enhanced, which will drive the optimization and upgrading of the independent supply chain.
New Energy Vehicles Going Overseas to Accelerate
my country’s auto exports will achieve rapid growth in 2022. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in November 2022, my country’s total import and export of auto products was US$22.95 billion, a month-on-month increase of 5.5% and a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. Among them, the export value increased by 5.0% month-on-month and 33.4% year-on-year. From January to November 2022, the cumulative import and export volume of my country’s auto products was 227.96 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. Among them, the export value increased by 26.9% year-on-year.
Self-owned brands are accelerating their deployment overseas. Thanks to the rapid deployment in Europe, Southeast Asia, South America and other markets, BYD will export a total of about 56,000 passenger vehicles in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 307.2%. On December 7, 2022, BYD announced a partnership with Chilean auto dealer group ASTARA. BYD’s new energy vehicles will begin localized sales in Chile in early 2023. On September 28, 2022, BYD announced that it has reached an exclusive passenger car import cooperation agreement with Sime Darby, and will enter the Malaysian passenger car market on December 8, 2022. From July to August 2022, BYD also announced to enter the Swedish, German and Japanese markets.
In recent years, Great Wall Motors has been building a whole industrial chain ecology overseas. Great Wall Motors recently held the 2022 Overseas Dealer Conference in Thailand. More than 200 dealer representatives from more than 50 countries and regions including Australia, Africa, Central and South America, and ASEAN participated in the conference. Other countries hold overseas dealer conferences. Mu Feng, President of Great Wall Motors, said that Great Wall Motors will focus on “ONEGWM” to create aggregated channels and star products, while increasing R&D investment and building a global R&D layout based on the forest ecosystem.
CICC stated that since 2021, the structure of my country’s passenger car export market has been optimized, and the export market has diversified, gradually forming an overseas sales structure of “core markets plus more blooms”. The absolute value of overseas sales of top car companies is still small, and the superimposed sales market is scattered. The share of each car company in the overseas market is still low, and the market share in a single region does not exceed 5%, and the potential growth space is large.
CITIC Securities believes that countries around the world are actively introducing new energy vehicle guidance policies, such as government subsidies and low tariffs, which provide a golden window for my country’s electric vehicles to go overseas. It is estimated that in 2025 and 2030, the overseas sales of Chinese car companies are expected to reach 3 million and 5.5 million respectively; in 2030, the overseas sales of electric vehicles in my country are expected to reach 2.5 million.
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