A strong rebound in soybean meal prices at the end of July can be expected in the future

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Original title: My agricultural products: a strong rebound at the end of July,Soybean mealFuture sources of prices: My Agricultural Products Network

Soybean meal bottomed out in stages this week, from a low of 3486 to near today’s 3620 line, a rebound of about 140 points in four days. As of July 29, the mainstream soybean meal spot price of oil plants in coastal areas was 3550-3610, which was higher than last week. Fifth, the price rose by 60-70 yuan/ton, and the price of the futures rose simultaneously; in addition, the enthusiasm for replenishment of middle and downstream enterprises was high, and the spot and long-month transactions were very hot. The basis of soybean meal basically bottomed out in July, and August is another important filling period for the new crop of US soybeans. Can the soybean meal market take advantage of the “east wind” of the weather to rise steadily?

　　Supply side:The supply and demand report shows that the new crop of US soybeans has a planting area of ​​87.55 million acres, and the new crop yield is 50.8 bu/acre. According to previous data, the adjustment of the planting area in August is not large, but the yield adjustment is full of uncertainty.The weekly crop progress report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture this Tuesday showedSoybeansThe excellent and good rate was 58%, lower than 60% a week ago and 72% in the same period last year. In addition, the weather forecast shows that rainfall in the northwest of the production area will still be low in the next 14 days. Rain in other regions will be normal. The overall weather will be neutral. The drought is still expected. There is more room for adjustment of the new crop yield of US soybeans. Focus on the rainfall in August. . In addition, the recent dry weather in South America has caused people to worry that the La Niña phenomenon will reappear, and the La Niña phenomenon may cause continued dry weather in parts of Brazil and Argentina.

Data source: USDA report

July global soybean supply and demand balance sheet (million tons)
2021/22	Beginning inventory	Yield	import	press	Total consumption	exit	Ending inventory	Inventory consumption ratio
worldwide	91.49	385.22	171.71	332.04	381.09	172.85	94.49	17.06%
U.S	3.66	119.88	0.95	60.56	63.81	56.47	4.22	3.51%
Brazil	26.34	144	0.65	47.7	50.35	93	27.64	19.28%
Argentina	25.5	52	4.7	43	50.35	6.35	25.5	44.97%
China	29.8	19	102	100	119.7	0.1	31	25.88%
2020/2021
worldwide	96.53	363.57	165.79	321.97	368.92	165.49	91.49	17.12%
U.S	14.28	112.55	0.54	59.06	61.93	61.78	3.66	2.96%
Brazil	20.74	137	1	46.75	49.4	83	23.04	17.40%
Argentina	26.7	46.5	4.7	41.5	48.7	3.7	25.5	48.66%
China	26.8	19.6	98	96	114.5	0.1	29.8	26.00%
2019/2020
worldwide	114.61	339.41	164.97	311.49	357.4	165.06	96.53	18.48%
U.S	24.74	96.67	0.42	58.91	61.85	45.7	14.28	13.28%
Brazil	32.47	128.5	0.55	46	48.65	92.14	20.74	14.73%
Argentina	28.89	48.8	4.88	38.77	45.87	10	26.7	47.79%
China	19.46	18.1	98.53	91.5	109.2	0.09	26.8	24.52%

Data source: USDA report

In the July USDA supply and demand report, the ending stocks of Brazil and Argentina were raised, and the global ending stocks increased slightly, but the US soybean production and ending stocks remained unchanged. The report was generally more neutral. The reconstruction of global soybean stocks was slow. CBOT soybeans were around 1330-1400 Shock adjustment, waiting for new driving factors to guide the direction.

　　Domestic supplyAccording to data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 13, China imported 48.895 million tons of soybeans from January to June 2021, an increase of 8.68% year-on-year. According to statistics from my agricultural product network, the arrival of soybeans in August is estimated to be 8.3 million tons, and in September, 5.6 million tons (the estimated arrival in September is still possible, and follow-up corrections are still possible). The progress of buying ships in the fourth quarter is generally slow. The forecast of arrival in Hong Kong in August has dropped significantly, and the pressure on oil plants has been released. On the other hand, due to the dry weather in South America, which is expected to continue for three months, the water level of the Parana River has dropped to the lowest level in history, posing a challenge to transportation. Soybeans are not ruled out. There is a situation of delayed arrival of the sailing schedule.

According to statistics from my agricultural product network, as of the 29th week of July 23, the country’s major oil plants had a soybean stock of 7,037,700 tons and a soybean meal stock of 1,261,800 tons. In addition to the large arrivals of soybeans in July, Brazil’s soybeans are not suitable for high moisture in summer. Storage, the operating rate of oil plants remained high, and soybean meal stocks continued to soar, hitting a record high in the past six years. In the early period, there was a rainy season in East China, and the recent typhoon weather and heavy rain in Henan all affected the delivery speed. Soybean meal will take time to go to the warehouse.

Data source: My Agricultural Products Network

　　Demand side:The prices of domestic live pigs and chickens have continued to fall, breeding companies have suffered serious losses, and the enthusiasm for replenishment is not high. Moreover, the average weight of live pigs has also been declining, and the demand for soybean meal is mostly maintained at any time. According to statistics from the China Feed Industry Association, the total national industrial feed output in June was 25.08 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.8%, of which pig feed output was 10.26 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.9%, and egg and poultry feed was 2.56 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.2%. 8.07 million tons, a decrease of 2.2% month-on-month. According to the slaughter data, the pig feed in July is expected to be on a downward trend compared with the previous month. According to statistics from my agricultural product network, the weekly soybean meal delivery volume of major oil plants nationwide in the 29th week was 1,357,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,900 tons, or 0.79%, which was basically the same as the previous two weeks, and the entire July delivery volume was average. In the last week of July, the market for soybean meal spot and far-month transactions was very hot. The first three days of this week totaled 1,393,200 tons, of which spot transactions were 461,200 tons, and the far-month was mainly sold in April-June next year with 832,000 tons.

“Industrial products look at demand, agricultural products look at supply.” Generally speaking, US soybean futures prices will continue to fluctuate with weather conditions. Pay attention to the August supply and demand report; for domestic soybean meal, the pressure on the supply side was released in August, and the soybean meal basis bottomed out. With a rebound, soybean meal prices can be expected in the future.

Editor in charge: Li Tiemin