Road downhill for the consortium formed by Cdp, Blackstone and Macquarie, which to buy 88% today in the hands of Atlantia values Autostrade per l’Italia 9.1 billion. This sum, with the “ticking fees”, reaches up to 9.3 billion euros. The Atlantia shareholders’ meeting, called on May 31st, will decide whether or not to accept the proposal. And after the opinions in favor of the CDP proposal and the funds already arrived from Iss and Frontis, the indication of Glass Lewis now arrives, completing the picture of the voting guidelines of the main proxy advisors, the consultants to whom international funds turn to decide how to behave in the voting in the assembly.
According to Glass Lewis, “with the option of splitting up and with alternatives not really viable (…) we are inclined to conclude that the agreement of the consortium”, that of Cdp and of the funds, “represents an easy and certain path to resolve an impasse that has lasted for a long time and prospectively consequential ». The consultant also speaks of the board of directors, which «in negotiating an exit from this chaos» «ensured adequate consideration and an additional financial upside» in the face of low estimates of adequate value (fair value). In short, according to analysts, it would be difficult to extract further value from the sale of the asset.
Even with respect to the interest shown by Florentino Pérez’s ACS, the Glass Lewis experts are cautious. The estimate of being able to value Aspi between 9 and 10 billion, according to the consultants, “does not seem to offer any solid increase for Atlantia and is, in any case, still substantially lower than TCI estimates”. Yes, that Tci, or the British fund according to which Aspi would be worth no less than 11-12 billion euros. According to Glass Lewis, his “no deal” strategy, ie one based on not closing the deal, would lead to an Atlantia “mired in litigation and on uncertain ground in relations with the Italian government.” For this, ultimately, according to Glass Lewis as for the other proxy advisors, there are no alternatives. The favor of most of the funds should thus add to the yes promised by Edizione, the safe of the Benettons, the first shareholder of Atlantia with 30.25%, with the family determined to close a chapter that opened with the tragedy of the Morandi Bridge, and to that – also ‘it already declared – of the Crt foundation.