MILANO – The Italian GDP will grow by more than five percentage points this year, to return to pre-pandemic levels in mid-2022. The update of the estimates on the Italian recovery by the Bank of Italy confirms the indication of the Minister of Economy, Daniele Franco, who about ten days ago at the ABI assembly said that a recovery “equal to or greater than 5% appears possible today”, thus improving the estimates of the Def which spoke of a rebound of 4.5%.
The Bulletin of via Nazionale estimates that, thanks to the acceleration from the current quarter, the Italian economy can recover 5.1 percent this year. The recovery “would remain high in the following two years (with a precise estimate of 4.4 in 2022 and 2.3 in 2023). The product would return to the levels prior to the pandemic crisis in the second half of 2022”. In June, the indications of the Bank of Italy were for a growth of + 4.9-5% and the governor Visco was positioned around 5% two weeks ago.
Obviously, the evolution of the health picture is the first variable that weighs on these perspectives. Palazzo Koch elaborated these forecasts by imagining “that the improvement of the health framework at national and global level will continue, favored by vaccination campaigns, and that this translates into the confirmation of the relaxation of restrictions on mobility, which would no longer be in force at beginning of 2022 “.
| VOICES | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIL (1) | -8,9 | 5,1 | 4,4 | 2,3 |
| Household consumption | -10,7 | 3,3 | 5,6 | 2,2 |
| Collective consumption | 1,6 | 2,2 | 1,9 | 0,6 |
| Gross fixed investments | -9,6 | 15,2 | 8,7 | 5 |
| of which: investments in capital goods | -11,5 | 11,6 | 8,2 | 7,6 |
| Total exports | -14,7 | 11 | 6,5 | 3,2 |
| Total imports | -13,2 | 12,9 | 7,7 | 3,7 |
| Stock changes (2) | -0,1 | 0,3 | 0 | 0 |
| for memo: GDP, raw data (3) | -8,9 | 5,1 | 4,3 | 2,2 |
| Prices (HICP) | -0,1 | 1,5 | 1,3 | 1,3 |
| HICP excluding food and energy | 0,5 | 0,5 | 0,6 | 1,1 |
| GDP deflator | 1,2 | 1,3 | 1,6 | 1,4 |
| Employment (hours worked) | -11,2 | 5 | 4,1 | 2,5 |
| Employment (number of employees) | -2,8 | -0,7 | 1,6 | 1,8 |
| Unemployment rate (4) | 9,3 | 10,5 | 10,3 | 9,9 |
| Export competitiveness (5) | -2,2 | 0,4 | 0,3 | -0,7 |
| Balance of payments current account balance (6) | 3,5 | 3,3 | 2,9 | 2,9 |
Source: Based on Bank of Italy and Istat data.
(1) For GDP and its components: quantities at linked prices; variations estimated on the basis of seasonally adjusted quarterly data corrected for the number of working days. – (2) Includes valuables. Contributions to GDP growth; percentage values. – (3) Not correct for working days. – (4) Annual averages; percentage values. – (5) Calculated by comparing the price of foreign manufactured goods with the deflator of Italian exports of goods (excluding energy and agricultural goods); positive values indicate competitiveness gains. – (6) As a percentage of GDP.
In addition to the improvement in the pandemic, budgetary and monetary policy (the Italian 10-year yield is seen stable at 0.9% this year and only gradually rising over the next two years) are also fundamental to support these estimates. And then there is the voice Pnrr, the Plan officially approved by Ecofin in recent days and which will now bring 25 billion to Italy in the coming weeks. According to the Bank of Italy, the effectiveness and timeliness of support and relaunch measures will be fundamental for growth and “the interventions financed with the national budget and with European funds, including those outlined in the NRP, provide a considerable boost to economic activity , raising the level of GDP by about 4 cumulative percentage points in the three-year forecast. About half of this effect is attributable to the NRP interventions, on the assumption that they are implemented effectively and without significant delays “.
Among the signals noted by the Bank of Italy is the towing of the investments to the economic restart, but also – finally – a newfound impulse from consumption, starting from the second quarter. This figure is still partial, as demonstrated by the fact that the propensity to save remains high “which is still affected by reasons of a precautionary nature”.
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