MILANO – Time X is set for 3.30pm today. When, for days, the meeting of the Fund Management Committee interbank guarantee. That is, the shareholder at 80% of Carige. For that meeting, the Fund had announced in due course (upon solicitation Consob) “the preliminary investigation will probably be completed” on the offers presented. Maybe even attributed an exclusive (although the Fund did not say this).
Carige, after three unsuccessful attempts, this is why an agreement is now possible
by Massimo Minella
However, in the meantime, a great novelty has intervened for the Lanterna bank: Bper, evidently fearing being cut off, she hastily convened the board of directors – on Saturday afternoon – reviewing his offer. For the Fund, therefore, there is a new text to be taken into consideration, so it cannot be ruled out that yes take some more time to analyze the dossier. Another element to consider, how (and if) the will still move Credit Agricole, in the light of the new framework: will it in turn choose to relaunch?
Carige, the Interbank Fund says no to Bper’s request: “Excessive recapitalization”
by Massimo Minella, Vittoria Puledda
But in reality in this game of increasingly bright colors they know each other very few elements. The meager certainties concern a sales process – by Carige – which began months ago and remained in limbo until the game was concluded (for now with a stop to the sale). Mps. Too many converging interests, too many protagonists busy seeing how the main scene was resolved to devote themselves to a “lateral” bank like Carige, was the most widespread comment on the period.
And indeed, immediately after the release of Mps, with the great refusal of Unicredit to conclude the operation, the Carige dossier was immediately reinvigorated. Until, last December 16, Bper came out of the closet; in truth, the only one to have done so.
The first proposal is well known: a symbolic euro for l’88,3% (therefore including the share of Central bank cashier, another subject that has not yet expressed its opinion and that in the current scheme should sell its stake in exchange for nothing) in the face of a recapitalization by a billion. Too much, he had been told. But in the meantime the rumors of another offer have intensified (two, also counting the cerberus background, which however should remain in the background) by Credit Agricole. Which, officially, continues to say “no comment”, even if nobody believes it.
According to the reconstructions – it is not known how accurate – the French bank would have asked for a recapitalization of between 600 and 700 million: Credit Agricole does not even confirm the offer, let alone the amount; the Fund confined itself to saying that the endorsed figures contain inaccuracies (not specifying which ones and even less correcting them) and in turn did not mention any names. In short, on the open ground there is only Bper. Who has revised the offer, improving it on the side of the receiver, but this time has not given details. What transpires is that he would have discounted the effect of Dta (the deferred tax items, which become cash until next June for the acquiring bank, if it is in good health) and perhaps he would have made a few more steps forward as well.
In short, Bper’s new offer could in turn be around 650 million, but in the absence of official data, the accounts are more than uncertain. Certainly if his proposal were to go through, he would have to revise the takeover bid price on 12% of the free float: the figure of 0.8 euro per share at this point is exceeded by the stock market values (follow the title live). But this is certainly not the decisive item: the initial estimated amount was around 70 million.
However, the commitment for the Deposit Guarantee Fund will be much more substantial. So, ultimately, for the Italian banking system. A difficult position, in some respects, for the buyer (which has in front of a consortium, not a single owner who speaks with a single voice and decides in solitude) and for the same salesperson. It is in fact intuitive that the banks do not all have the same capital strength and, above all, the same objectives: having to put their hand in the wallet, and then hand over the bank to a competitor is probably not a choice that makes you happy.
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