Thermal coal, coking coal, coke futuresMain forceThe contract price soared again, setting a record high.
At the close of the market on September 6, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures rose by 6.15% and 4.52% respectively, and their prices reached 2778 yuan/ton and 3,489.5 yuan/ton respectively.
Thermal coal futures prices also continued to rise, with the main contract closing at 949 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.56%, a record high.
“The rise in coking coal futures is mainly affected by the relationship between supply and demand. Under the environment of safety, environmental protection and dual control, the supply has fallen too much, and the tight supply and demand pattern will not be solved in the short term.” An unnamed coal futures researcher told Jiemian News Express.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of bifocals has seen a multi-wave rise.
Coking coal is a type of coking coal with strong caking and coking properties. It is an indispensable basic raw material for coke production and is an important upstream raw material for the coking and iron and steel industries.
Coke is converted from coking coal through high-temperature dry distillation in a coke oven, and is mostly used in blast furnace ironmaking. Thermal coal is mainly used for power generation in power plants.
Guotai JunanSecurities pointed out that in the context of the month-on-month decline in steel output during the off-season from July to August, the price of coking coal rose sharply than expected. The core reason was the difficulty in releasing domestic production capacity and insufficient supply caused by import restrictions.
Baocheng FuturesResearch reportAccording to the analysis, since August, affected by a number of policies to increase production and ensure supply, the relevant state departments have actively promoted the release of coal production capacity, but the implementation of the policy has been transformed into a process of actual production. Judging from the current status quo, the effective release of coal production capacity still has to wait for some time.
The operating rate of domestic coal washing plants in August was about 70%, an increase from the previous month, but it was still at a three-year low.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in late August compared with mid-August, the prices of 20 products have risen, with coking coal (primary coking coal) and coke (secondary metallurgical coke) leading the rise, up 24.8% and 12.6% respectively from the previous month.
Guotai JunanSaid that the continuous increase in the price of bi-coke was mainly due to domestic environmental restrictions on production, as well as coal mine accidents in Qinghai, Linfen, Shanxi and other places, and the resumption of domestic safety inspections, resulting in more production stops and production reductions.
Recently, environmental protection inspectors in Shandong have checked coal consumption indicators, and some coking companies have carried out suffocation; some coking companies in Shanxi have also taken the initiative to restrict production, with a range of 20%-30%.
At the same time, the Mongolian epidemic has repeated, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has not rebounded significantly. This intensified the market’s concerns about the decline in the supply of coking coal and coke.
Everbright Futures analysts said that Mongolian coal has been cleared at present, but the price of raw coal has risen, and the uncertainty brought about by the epidemic on future customs clearance has given coking coal the confidence to continue to strengthen.
China has also increased its imports of coal and coal from Russia, but the amount of imports is relatively limited, and it is difficult to effectively make up for the gap between supply and demand in the short term.
At the same time, the recent decline in iron ore has led to a rebound in the profitability of steel mills, and short-term replenishment demand for steel mills remains strong. Steel mills have accepted the increase in coke prices faster, the price transmission mechanism has been smooth, and coke prices have been well supported.
According to Jiemian News, some coke companies in Shanxi, Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and other regions have started the ninth round of spot increases this year, and coking coal and coke futures have formed support.
The price monitoring of the business agency shows that on the afternoon of September 2nd, many coke companies in Shandong started the ninth round of price increases, which will be implemented on September 3, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The cumulative increase this year is about 1150 yuan/ton.
According to the analysis of the business agency, with the implementation of the “dual control” policy and stricter environmental protection, the outlook for coking coal supply is still expected to be tight, and prices have room for upside. At present, coke supply is still tight, and coke companies have a strong upward mentality. It is expected that coke prices will remain strong in the short term.
Guotai JunanThe analysis believes that the current absolute price of coking coal is on the high side, the market is under pressure to fear high, and the risk of high fluctuations is intensified.
In terms of thermal coal, a coastal port coal analyst told Jiemian News that, affected by the news about the price control of the production area, downstream users’ purchases have decreased, and the inquiries are not active.
Starting in mid-September, the temperature in East China has dropped below 30 degrees Celsius, and the load of civil electricity will drop. Some power plants will take the opportunity to overhaul the units.
“But the temperature drop does not mean that the market is weaker.” The analyst said.
He believes that it is currently at a time when the downstream power plants are storing coal.Hershey’sDuring the festival, cement plants and chemical plants are expected to store coal more strongly. Overlapping the replenishment in the Northeast region, the production area market is still optimistic. Industrial electricity will take over the baton of civil electricity, and it is expected that the daily consumption of coastal power plants will not drop significantly.
“It is expected that there will be a wave of decline in port coal prices in September, but the decline in coal prices is limited.” The person believes.
On September 3, the information released by the Shenmu Coal Trading Center showed that on August 30, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document requesting the verification and rectification of price increases in the mines that implement capacity replacement commitments and guaranteed supply coal mines in Inner Mongolia. Under the pressure of policy regulation, many state-owned large mines and large group coal mines in Inner Mongolia have begun to reduce prices on September 2.
Affected by this, the price of thermal coal futures, which had been pulled up for several days before, had a callback on September 3.
West China SecuritiesThe analysis believes that in the case of strong demand and low inventories across the industry chain, short-term thermal coal prices will remain in the high range. At the same time, the power plant is expected to slow down the pace of procurement in the peak season under the expected increase in coal production in the future, and transfer to the subsequent off-season replenishment, so the off-season of thermal coal may not be short.
Recently, listed coal companies have concentrated on disclosing semi-annual reports.Benefited from the increase in commercial coal sales and the rise in coal prices, listed coal companies usher inPerformanceSoaring.
According to the statistics of Jiemian News, of the 26 listed coal companies, 23 achieved revenue growth, accounting for 88.46%; 24 achievedNet profitGrowth, accounting for 92.3%.
in,Meijin Energy(000723.SZ) The highest increase in net profit, more than 19 times;Xinji Energy(601918.SH) net profit increased by more than 11 times;Haohua Energy(601101.SH) net profit increased by nearly 6 times.
(Article Source: Interface News)
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