ROME (ITALPRESS) – Italy begins the long narrow path of recovery: first positive signs in services, solid industry. This is what emerges from the May economic situation of the Confindustria study center. GDP on track. May was confirmed for Italy as the month of the gradual easing of anti-Covid restrictions, also thanks to the significant pace of vaccinations. This makes it possible in the 2nd quarter a first, small, increase in GDP, which will be followed by a strong rebound in the 3rd and 4th equal to more than + 4%, which will be consolidated thanks to the impact that will come from the investments financed by the European plan. NG-EU. Industry ahead. Industrial production remained stable in March (-0.1%), worse than expected, closing the 1st quarter at + 0.9%. The statistical drag in the 2nd quarter is nil and in April it is estimated to be stable (despite the PMI rising to 60.7), but a positive change is expected in the quarter: production expectations are sharply increasing and inventories are rapidly increasing decumulation; this indicates a demand beyond forecasts and a necessary accumulation of stock, which will support production. Something is moving in the services. European rates continue to be affected to a lesser extent by the rise recorded in the US (+ 1.0% in one year), thanks to the continued purchases of securities by the ECB. The yield of the ten-year BTP rose slightly in May (0.91% on average), in line with a slight increase in the other euro countries: the spread on the German Bund widened just (1.08%), which remains negative (-0.16%). Italian exports restarted in March (+ 2.6% at constant prices; + 1.1% in the 1st quarter), returning to pre-crisis levels. Sales in EU countries drove the rise; weaker those from outside the EU, which however rebounded in April (+ 7.3% in value). Foreign sales of intermediate and consumer goods are on the rise, while non-EU sales of capital goods are on the rise in April. The dynamics of household consumption was weak until April, due to the uncertainty about the health crisis and the containment measures in place to stop the Covid epidemic. Spending, despite having recovered in part, appears far from pre-crisis levels. The Confcommercio consumption indicator in April is marginally backward, it increased by 45% compared to a year earlier, but marks a -23% compared to April 2019. Car registrations in April stood at around 145 thousand, against the 4 thousand of April 2020 when Italy was in full lockdown, but compared to April 2019 the levels are still 17% lower. Still low inflation in Italy. Consistent with the weakness of demand, the trend in consumer prices in Italy remains low: it rose to + 1.1% per annum in April, from negative values at the end of 2020. We are well below the ECB target of 2.0% ( + 1.6% inflation in the Eurozone). The rise in prices in Italy was driven by the rise in energy prices (+ 9.8%), which however is transitory, given the stabilization of Brent at pre-crisis levels. The dynamics of the final prices of industrial goods, on the other hand, remain very moderate (+ 0.3% per annum). And core inflation, including the prices of services, is very low (+ 0.5%). Even if the expected resumption of consumption and the NG-EU plan will create more room for price increases, we are far from an inflationary scenario. (ITALPRESS). pc / com 29-May-21 10:46
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