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Confindustria: production up in the fourth quarter, but less sustained

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In the fourth quarter of 2021 – observes the Confindustria Study Center – “Italian industrial production would be continuing the growth trend already observed during the year, albeit at a less sustained pace”.

The increases in October (+ 0.1%) and November (+ 0.2%) would imply an acquired quarterly change of 0.2%, “a slower pace than observed in the first three quarters (respectively + 1.5% , + 1.2% and + 1%) “.

Physiological slowdown

The reasons for this trend can be attributed “in part to a physiological slowdown (Italy is the one that among the major European economies in September was better positioned than in the pre-pandemic period, + 1.5% compared to February 2020, while Germany and Spain have not yet closed the production gap), partly due to the emergence of production limiting factors, such as the scarcity of some components and raw materials, the greater use of inventories, the production slowdown of the main commercial partners and the greater degree of uncertainty “.

The companies interviewed by the Confindustria Study Center noted «an increase in industrial production of 0.1% in October compared to September, and of 0.2% in November. Activity levels in both months remained more than 1% higher than the average for the first nine months of the year. The seasonally adjusted volume orders would have increased respectively by 0.6% and 0.5% monthly ».

More business confidence

The economic indicators continued to point out “an expansive dynamic of activity in industry, and growing both in October and November: the confidence of manufacturing companies rose significantly between October and November, due to the improvement in opinions and expectations on production levels and orders. On the other hand, that of market services companies is decreasing. Although the degree of plant utilization by manufacturing companies in the third quarter reached its highest value since December 2018 (78.1%), the shortage of manpower, the shortage of materials, the increase in export costs and the lengthening of delivery times were perceived as elements of growing obstacle to production ».

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