The European Central Bank could proceed to raise interest rates as early as this year, in September, to combat inflation. This is the latest prediction from analysts at Goldman Sachs: “Given the further upside surprises for inflation and concerns expressed by officials, we go back to our pre-conflict forecasts and expect net APP purchases to end in the third quarter. (most likely in July) and the ECB will proceed to raise rates by 25 basis points in September and December “, argue in the report released today.
Certainly, the ongoing war implies greater uncertainty about the timetable. According to the business house, it is therefore possible to raise interest rates as early as July if the effects of the conflict on economic growth turn out to be smaller than expected and greater risks on the inflation front emerge. Conversely, a slower normalization process is plausible in the event of a pronounced blow to confidence or a halt in Russian gas flows that could weigh more on euro area growth.
Looking further this year, Goldman Sachs expects three rate hikes in 2023: in March, June and December 2023.