The euro area economy, after recovering in the second quarter, thanks to the easing of restrictions and the ever-increasing pace of vaccinations, “proceeds towards strong growth in the third quarter”. The ECB writes it in the economic bulletin. “A very positive trend is expected in the manufacturing sector” explains the European Central Bank, adding: “Although the reopening of large sectors of the economy is supporting a strong recovery in services, the Delta variant of the coronavirus could dampen the recovery of the latter. , especially in the tourism and hospitality sector ».
The ECB is optimistic about the growth of the European economy but is keeping «supply-side bottlenecks». More specifically, the bulletin reads, “a very positive trend is expected in the manufacturing sector, although supply-side bottlenecks are holding back production in the short term”. The reference is to bottlenecks in supplies, in turn linked to the increase in the prices of materials and raw materials, which have put many industrial productions in difficulty.
As for price growth and interest rates, the ECB, in the face of the new symmetrical inflation target of 2%, will not raise rates “until inflation reaches 2% well in advance of the end of the projection horizon and on a lasting basis for the remainder of that horizon, and until it deems that the progress achieved by core inflation will be sufficiently advanced to be consistent with the 2% over the medium term ”. Such a prospect “could also involve a transitional period in which inflation is moderately above target.”